CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Gass3268]

Gonna be fun when the networks insta-call this for Newsom and the right freaks out.

[Gass3268]

Thankfully everyone will be mailed a ballot plus organized ballot collection is legal in California, but Newsome is going to need to get Biden/Obama involved in a massive awareness campaign to raise the interest for Democrats. That SUSA poll has the Democratic partisan advantage drop from D+17 in the RV screen to D+5 in the LV screen.

[Gass3268]

Also, the California system for recalling officials is stupid. Wisconsin's is much better, even if it didn't work against Scott Walker.

[Gass3268]

Lets say Newsom gets recalled, what could a Republican Governor do with a Democratic state legislature with veto-proof super majorities?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

[Gass3268]

Small update

Total ballots returned = 5,890,491
Dems 3,124,920 (53.1%)
Reps 1,448,306 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,317,265 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (30%), Reps (27%), Ind/Other (20%)

Total ballots returned = 6,159,023
Dems: 3,290,338 (53.4%)
Reps: 1,490,420 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,378,265 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (32%), Reps (28%), Ind/Other (21%)

Saw on Twitter that in person early voting is starting and the voting patterns look more like pre-pandemic with Democrats coming out hard to vote early in person.

[Gass3268]

I really hope there is an exit poll here and they are able to insta call race when the polls close. Would be glorious.

[Gass3268]

So I don’t know if you guys have caught this yet, but there’s going to be a press conference this afternoon between Larry Elder, and MeToo figure Rose McGowan. McGowan has spent the last week alleging that Newsom’s wife acted on behalf of Hollywood figures to try and “silence” her testimony regarding guys like Weinstein, who she was among the first to accuse.

McGowan appears a little unstable right now, having had several public outbursts (including a screaming match with a trans activist, a bizarre Colbert appearance, and declaring she was leaving the US forever a few years back). She got on team Tara Reade early on, and stuck around even after it was discredited.

I appreciate that the woman has a lot of trauma, and I don’t mean to ridicule her. I only bring this up because she’s going to hold a joint press conference with Elder (who has his own domestic issues, ie pulling a weapon on his ex), to either broadly attack Newsom, or endorse Elder.

Maybe this will be nothing, and I highly doubt it’s going to win Elder many/any votes. But it felt newsworthy enough to give you guys a heads up.

https://mobile.twitter.com/larryelder/status/1437064816984682500

Based on the tweets I'm seeing, this press conferences is as off the rails as you can imagine.

[Gass3268]

So far, the only outlets that seem to be covering this press conference are Fox News, The Sun & The Daily Mail. No state news outlet, no regional news outlet, no local news outlet

Dave Weigel is the only legitimate reporter I've seen covering the event.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1437154909879627778?s=20

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1437155593144262657?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1437243920845393930?s=21

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1437547264705183749?s=20

[Gass3268]

Not a ton of E-Day voters in Orange County in the first three hours:

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1437825737751347205?s=20

[Gass3268]

In case no one's mentioned it already, polls close at 8pm PST (aka 9pm MST, 10pm CST, and 11pm EST).

I doubt people in the EST will know the winner by midnight, but what time in PST should we expect a call to be made?

They have an exit poll, they will be able to make a call at poll closing time, unless they are extremely cautious.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

[Gass3268]

Some early exit polling, this one is probably the most illuminating of the electorate:

https://twitter.com/cbspolitics/status/1437919419385139207?s=21

[Gass3268]

Newsom will be making a statement right when the polls close.

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1437967394295586821?s=20

[Gass3268]

CNN: Too early to call, but No has a lead.

NBC is doing the same.

[Gass3268]

Newsom getting 71.6% in Napa County.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1437976154368102409?s=20

[Gass3268]

Santa Clara County at 78% for Newsom

[Gass3268]

Yeah, Orange County is gonna vote No.

[Gass3268]

Ventura County at 64% No

[Gass3268]

Yes in Glenn 68%

[Gass3268]

Yeah, Orange County is gonna vote No.

The accounts I trust on Twitter are saying based on EV it will likely vote yes to recall by around 3-4 points

That's not possible when there has only been around 100,000 votes today.

[Gass3268]

San Mateo at 81% No