State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[BundouYMB]

"Republican" currently leading in LD-142, which would be a flip if it was a real Republican. But the "Republican" is actually a conservative Democrat who claimed the line (NY weirdness.) Loss for progressives though.

[BundouYMB]

Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

AD-142 was more like a democratic primary in the general election IIRC, tho

Is this the district with one Dem on the GOP line and one on the Dem line?

Yes. Dem on the GOP line is pretty conservative but has a lot of union support. Dem on the Dem line is a progressive.

[BundouYMB]

Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

AD-142 was more like a democratic primary in the general election IIRC, tho

Is this the district with one Dem on the GOP line and one on the Dem line?

Yeah but the one on the R line is a DINO who is handpicked by Paladino and plans to caucus with republicans

Uh, where did you hear that? That's completely wrong. The conservadem has promised to caucus with the Democrats (it would be stupid to do otherwise. Democrats have the majority now that the IDC has at least temporarily desolved.)

[BundouYMB]

AD102 where the Democrat is currently up 10 points is R+12...

[BundouYMB]

THE BLUE WAVE IS DEAD

Great news for John McCain House Republicans!

[BundouYMB]

Just quickly calculated - Trump won the remaining precincts in HD-178 9936-9649. Tai (D) is down by 8 votes. Stick a fork in her.

Trump won HD-178 by three points. That means the remaining votes are more favorable than the district as a whole.

I don't normally acknolwedge trolls, I just want to get this outthere to make sure the troll doesn't trick anyone.

[BundouYMB]

Reminder that the previous Republican St. Rep. won by 23 POINTS in 2016. 2018 is increasingly looking like Clinton 2016 margins (or better) in the suburbs + Obama 2008 margins in working class areas.