State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Mayer up by 3343 votes now. This is over:

It's been over.

[BundouYMB]

"Republican" currently leading in LD-142, which would be a flip if it was a real Republican. But the "Republican" is actually a conservative Democrat who claimed the line (NY weirdness.) Loss for progressives though.

[LimoLiberal]

Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

AD-142 was more like a democratic primary in the general election IIRC, tho

Well the candidate who's running on the Republican, Conservative, and Independent lines is winning.

[KingSweden]

Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

AD-142 was more like a democratic primary in the general election IIRC, tho

Is this the district with one Dem on the GOP line and one on the Dem line?

[BundouYMB]

Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

AD-142 was more like a democratic primary in the general election IIRC, tho

Is this the district with one Dem on the GOP line and one on the Dem line?

Yes. Dem on the GOP line is pretty conservative but has a lot of union support. Dem on the Dem line is a progressive.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The R's lead is shrinking in the 142nd. Went from +10 to +6

[Pandaguineapig]

Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

AD-142 was more like a democratic primary in the general election IIRC, tho

Is this the district with one Dem on the GOP line and one on the Dem line?

Yeah but the one on the R line is a DINO who is handpicked by Paladino and plans to caucus with republicans

[Adam Griffin]

Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

Margin is closing:

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First round of Wulfric Projections incoming:


39th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 43,860)   Election Districts Reporting: 48 of 56
Ari Espinal   DEM   .   73.82 %   502   .   89.85 %   611
WOR   .   13.53 %   92           
WEP   .   2.50 %   17           
Blank         0.59 %   4      0.59 %   4
Void      .   1.03 %   7   .   1.03 %   7
Write-in      .   8.53 %   58   .   8.53 %   58
Total Votes   680

74th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 76,195)   Election Districts Reporting: 87 of 107
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Harvey Epstein   DEM   .   77.27 %   2,451   .   90.20 %   2,861
WOR   .   12.93 %   410           
Bryan Cooper   REP   .   5.04 %   160   .   5.04 %   160
Adrienne R. Craig-Williams   GRE   .   2.21 %   70   .   2.21 %   70
Juan Pagan   REF   .   1.92 %   61   .   1.92 %   61
Blank         0.03 %   1      0.03 %   1
Void         0.28 %   9      0.28 %   9
Write-in         0.32 %   10      0.32 %   10
Total Votes   3,172


80th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 58,363)   Election Districts Reporting: 85 of 95
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Nathalia Fernandez   DEM   .   78.04 %   1,432   .   80.60 %   1,479
IND   .   2.56 %   47           
Gene Defrancis   REP   .   13.08 %   240   .   18.47 %   339
CON   .   4.31 %   79           
REF   .   1.09 %   20           
Blank         0.33 %   6      0.33 %   6
Void         0.11 %   2      0.11 %   2
Write-in         0.49 %   9      0.49 %   9
Total Votes   1,835

 32nd Senate District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 164,917)   Election Districts Reporting: 153 of 219
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Luis Sepulveda   DEM   .   89.21 %   1,736   .   89.21 %   1,736
Patrick Delices   REP   .   2.47 %   48   .   2.47 %   48
Pamela Stewart-Martinez   REF   .   6.17 %   120   .   6.17 %   120
Blank         0.15 %   3      0.15 %   3
Void      .   1.28 %   25   .   1.28 %   25
Write-in         0.72 %   14      0.72 %   14
Total Votes   1,946

[LimoLiberal]

Anti-Cuomo effect out in full force. Rightward swings from 2016 in 2/4 races that have a significant chunk of the vote in. And you people laughed at me.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anti-Cuomo effect out in full force. Rightward swings from 2016 in 2/4 races that have a significant chunk of the vote in. And you people laughed at me.

We still are. You're making assumptions with only 2% of the vote in.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

STERN LEADING BY 11 in 10!!

[Adam Griffin]

Major dump in AD-10: Stern ahead by 12 with 57% reporting:

[Adam Griffin]

AD142 is likely gone.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

And it looks like we're taking 10

[Adam Griffin]

64% reporting in AD-10 and Stern still holds a 10-point lead:

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I still think that the Reform and Independence Party need to be shoved off the register with a scalp.

[Adam Griffin]

Burke's margin of loss narrowing a bit in 142 but he'd need basically two-thirds of the outstanding vote to win:

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

10th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 85,925)   Election Districts Reporting: 63 of 105
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Steve Stern   DEM   .   50.82 %   2,916   .   56.12 %   3,220
WOR   .   2.14 %   123           
IND   .   1.86 %   107           
WEP   .   1.01 %   58           
REF      0.28 %   16           
Janet L. Smitelli   REP   .   34.73 %   1,993   .   43.83 %   2,515
CON   .   9.10 %   522           
Blank         0.03 %   2      0.03 %   2
Void         0.02 %   1      0.02 %   1
Write-in         0.00 %   0      0.00 %   0
Total Votes   5,738

Dems at 5-0 so far.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW dems ahead in AD102 with 1 precinct in (LUL)

dems ahead 896-697 with 17 precincts in AD107

[Adam Griffin]

It's long since over, but 65% of precincts reporting in SD37 and Mayer is maintaining a 57-43 margin closing in on 5000 votes.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Good to see that the WFP contributed more votes than the WEP.

[Adam Griffin]

Gonna need to keep an eye on 107...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Stick a fork in it. AD-10 is a D pick up.

[Sestak]

Republican held districts are 10,17,102, and 107, right?