State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[KingSweden]

THE BLUE WAVE IS DEAD

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,133   39.51%   2,658   38.91%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,051   19.47%   1,402   20.52%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,214   41.01%   2,771   40.56%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,398      6,831   
Precincts Reported      21   of   75 Precincts      28.00%

[BundouYMB]

THE BLUE WAVE IS DEAD

Great news for John McCain House Republicans!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,747   40.64%   3,272   39.94%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,418   20.98%   1,769   21.59%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,593   38.36%   3,150   38.45%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      6,758      8,191   
Precincts Reported      27   of   75 Precincts      36.00%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,747   40.64%   3,488   40.21%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,418   20.98%   1,859   21.43%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,593   38.36%   3,326   38.34%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      6,758      8,673   
Precincts Reported      35   of   75 Precincts      46.67%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,747   40.64%   4,269   39.52%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,418   20.98%   2,234   20.68%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,593   38.36%   4,298   39.79%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      6,758      10,801   
Precincts Reported      56   of   75 Precincts      74.67%

[KingSweden]

I’m more curious how TX munis went

[Xing]

If Democrats can't win TX-13, how can they ever win back PA?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: LEMAN WINS

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   4,138   44.52%   6,362   42.97%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,943   20.90%   3,002   20.27%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   3,213   34.57%   5,441   36.75%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      9,294      14,805   
Precincts Reported      71   of   75 Precincts      94.67%

[Theodore]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: LEMAN WINS

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   4,138   44.52%   6,362   42.97%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,943   20.90%   3,002   20.27%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   3,213   34.57%   5,441   36.75%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      9,294      14,805   
Precincts Reported      71   of   75 Precincts      94.67%

I thought they go to a runoff

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: LEMAN WINS

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   4,138   44.52%   6,362   42.97%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,943   20.90%   3,002   20.27%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   3,213   34.57%   5,441   36.75%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      9,294      14,805   
Precincts Reported      71   of   75 Precincts      94.67%

I thought they go to a runoff

Ballotpedia doesn't mention a runoff date for this election.

[Theodore]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: LEMAN WINS

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   4,138   44.52%   6,362   42.97%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,943   20.90%   3,002   20.27%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   3,213   34.57%   5,441   36.75%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      9,294      14,805   
Precincts Reported      71   of   75 Precincts      94.67%

I thought they go to a runoff

Ballotpedia doesn't mention a runoff date for this election.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/05/texas-house-district-13-special-election-results/amp/?utm_campaign=trib-social-buttons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&__twitter_impression=true

Nevermind it is later this summer

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The runoff is on May 22, so your Wulfric projection was premature.

That's only for the regular elections.

----------------

Final Numbers:

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   4,138   44.52%   6,695   43.31%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,915   20.60%   3,065   19.82%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   3,241   34.87%   5,698   36.86%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      9,294      15,458   
Precincts Reported      75   of   75 Precincts      100.00%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next Specials: May 15:

Alabama
See also: Alabama state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Alabama House of Representatives District 4   
[show]☐ Alabama State Senate District 26   
 
Pennsylvania
See also: Pennsylvania state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 48   
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 68   
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 178   

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines


I'm going to be bold and optimistic and say we pickup 178. I have a feeling John Fetterman could be a factor in it since it's a southwestern PA district.

[IceSpear]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

[LimoLiberal]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines


I'm going to be bold and optimistic and say we pickup 178. I have a feeling John Fetterman could be a factor in it since it's a southwestern PA district.

Don't know where GEM is getting his numbers, but HD-48 is actually Democratic held, despite going for Trump by 15 points. But it's in ancestrally democratic SW PA. Republicans could very well flip it. So yeah, no way Democrats can take control of state legislatures if they can't recoup losses in areas where Hillary performed historically bad like SW PA and NE Ohio.

[Gass3268]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

I'm guessing Lamb won this seat? Most of his best precincts from Washington County appear to be in this district.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

I'm guessing Lamb won this seat? Most of his best precincts from Washington County appear to be in this district.

If it's currently D-held then I don't see why we wouldn't hold the seat.

[IceSpear]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

Until Democrats lose something else or fall a point in the generic ballot average, then suddenly THEY'RE DOOMED AND THE RED WAVE IS INCOMING AGAIN!

Did Conor Lamb's victory not already "prove" they were "repairing their standing with the working class"? I know that was 2 months ago, an eternity by Atlas standards, but people here really need to have perspective and look at the bigger picture rather than obsessing over every little movement in noisy polls and every single state legislative election as if it's a microcosm of the entire country.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

Until Democrats lose something else or fall a point in the generic ballot average, then suddenly THEY'RE DOOMED AND THE RED WAVE IS INCOMING AGAIN!

Did Conor Lamb's victory not already "prove" they were "repairing their standing with the working class"? I know that was 2 months ago, an eternity by Atlas standards, but people here really need to have perspective and look at the bigger picture rather than obsessing over every little movement in noisy polls and every single state legislative election as if it's a microcosm of the entire country.

I like how people already forgot about AZ-08. Young Conservative said 2018 might be D+10 after that election, and now he's back to generally being a GOP hack. The generic ballot was D+7 when Tipi got a 16 point swing too, which is barely better than it is now.

Posters here really have the memory of goldfish.

[Gass3268]

Miles with the map:

[IceSpear]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

Until Democrats lose something else or fall a point in the generic ballot average, then suddenly THEY'RE DOOMED AND THE RED WAVE IS INCOMING AGAIN!

Did Conor Lamb's victory not already "prove" they were "repairing their standing with the working class"? I know that was 2 months ago, an eternity by Atlas standards, but people here really need to have perspective and look at the bigger picture rather than obsessing over every little movement in noisy polls and every single state legislative election as if it's a microcosm of the entire country.

I like how people already forgot about AZ-08. Young Conservative said 2018 might be D+10 after that election, and now he's back to generally being a GOP hack. The generic ballot was D+7 when Tipi got a 16 point swing too, which is barely better than it is now.

Posters here really have the memory of goldfish.

And that one was merely 3 weeks ago. 3 weeks! LOL

I'm pretty convinced at this point that posters here won't be satisfied with the Democratic Party's standing until there's not a single elected Republican official in the entire country.

[LimoLiberal]

If Clark Mitchell doesn't lose, I will actually not go on Atlas for the seven days from Wednesday 5/16 - Wednesday 5/23. I am very confident that Republicans will flip this seat.