2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[lfromnj]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Because the Minneapolis district is Biden +60 while MN07 is Trump +30.

I made a similar point in Colorado where the 2 most natural seats were Denver and El Paso. The former was Biden +60 and the latter was Trump +11

[lfromnj]

By the way is mid decade redistricting allowed in Minnesota?

[lfromnj]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Even if you're aiming for proportionality, it is too clear of a community of interest for a split of it to be anything other than an egregious gerrymander.

Again - which map are you discussing? You give me the link of the so-called gerrymander, and I'll give you an explanation as to why splitting Dane County is justified.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Pick any map as you like -- no map that splits Dane is fair.

I could maybe see some sort of argument if a split of one of the counties in the area was necessary for population equality, but yeah, there's basically zero region to do a split that goes deeper than one or two towns. Cracking Dane County to counteract Democratic packing is a scandalous gerrymander.

I wouldn't call it scandalous as long as it doesn't go into the inner ring

 

Green is probably what would be Madison city limits if it annexed atleast the most inner ring areas.
Say some split like this



It doesn't really make too much sense as it would just make more sense to lop of the furthest end  of Green county so it still is a Dem Favorable map but it isn't really egregious. Splitting the clearly urbanized inner part of Dane is unacceptable as that is such a clear COI. The areas split of Western Dane are obviously more related to Madison than the southern parts of Green but the line is a bit more blurred than splitting Madison in 2 as that's really the only way to get any split of the core Madison area. Obviously most splits of Dane when done for partisan fairness are clearly the latter than just merely the former..

[lfromnj]

Dems got the short end of the stick "relatively" I guess .  They decided to push MN06 further into the metro rather than MN01/MN02. Both MN02/MN01 still got a bit more blue each but Dems may have wanted a bit more.

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1493647538716483586

Good job by the court for dealing with the tricky St Clouds area.

[lfromnj]

Median seat still voted Trump in 2020 L

Yeah as I said I expected the median seat to be a Biden +1 to 2 seat.

[lfromnj]

What's the partisanship of MN-02?

Looks about Biden + 7.5ish

That should make Angie Craig reasonably secure.

Its 7.2 from 6.9.

[lfromnj]

MN-02 seems like it would be an easy flip for the GOP. Biden +7.2, but Craig underperformed Biden significantly, as did other MSP suburban Democrats. In a wave environment, that's tossup at minimum.

Some of the underperformance was definitely 3rd party vote share which we need to wait on.

[lfromnj]

Thank you, Minnesota Grassroots Party, very cool.

I actually wonder what happens if Democrats picked up the state senate. Iron Range state senators switched to independent because they were salty over the suburban Democratic senate "power grab"

[lfromnj]

Oh MN08 did become a decent bit more D . Moves to Trump +11 from +15

[lfromnj]

State legislative maps had some changes. Dems got a fairly good deal from Rochester finally getting that safe seat but the 2nd seat is still very competitive albiet a few points more R.  Iron Range looks somewhat weird and R friendly, Trump wins every senate seat there outside of Duluth.

[lfromnj]

It's almost like the court prioritized keeping the partisan balance of the districts the same.  Obviously that's impossible everywhere with the Twin Cities growing so much faster than the rest of the state, but they really didn't shift any districts meaningfully in either direction.  MN-1 shift 1 point, MN-2 didn't really move much at all, and MN-6 moved only about 3 points left.

If they took a different approach they could've had a bigger impact on partisanship but kinda avoided that IMO.

It’s def a least change. Kinda hoping they’d prioritize partisan fairness as geography isn’t not good for Dems in MN but it is what it is, and despite its partisan problems it’s a good map. Along with CO and AZ, this is one of the underwhelming maps for Dems this cycle

Colorado isn't underwhelming other than mean median which isn't as big of an issue in CO because its Biden +14 vs Biden +7 here. Overall just means Rs have a small shot at Perlmutters seat for a rental in 2022. Other than that CO08 is better for Dems early in the decade but won't have any extreme trends.  Democrats can take that as they wish.CO03 was a self own by selfish Democrats but by PVI its pretty much the same just a few points more R on biden numbers. Colorado is just a pretty meh map due to too many special interest groups.

[lfromnj]

State legislative maps had some changes. Dems got a fairly good deal from Rochester finally getting that safe seat but the 2nd seat is still very competitive albiet a few points more R.  Iron Range looks somewhat weird and R friendly, Trump wins every senate seat there outside of Duluth.

How many Duluth districts are there?  Just one?

Yes just one duluth senate district. IIRC Biden actually had the highest vote share for any Democrat in Duluth for decades.  The swingier state senate district is only Trump +30 votes FYI.

[lfromnj]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

[lfromnj]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

[lfromnj]

Ah also I found out why the GOP proposal was so bold, it basically followed the 2001 to 2011 map. Reminder that at least the inner part of the Minneapolis metro grew pretty slowly this decade so the population distribution isn't that far off from 2001.

[lfromnj]

Wow
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1493665853266710530?cxt=HHwWhMC-0cDLyLopAAAA

MN02 actually flips to a Romney seat in 2012.

[lfromnj]

Also just yuck at Duluth and Washington county. I guess it sorta happens with a least change but no thanks.

[lfromnj]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

St Cloud is definitely moving left, the Dems flipped the senate seat there just in 2020, Biden definitely improved there from Clinton too.   Carver is moving left too, the rest of the district is just kinda meh, not moving significantly either way.

It definetely moved left in 2020. However this may merely have been a bounceback from 2016. The district is still a few points more Republican than it was in 2012.

[lfromnj]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

St Cloud is definitely moving left, the Dems flipped the senate seat there just in 2020, Biden definitely improved there from Clinton too.   Carver is moving left too, the rest of the district is just kinda meh, not moving significantly either way.

It definetely moved left in 2020. However this may merely have been a bounceback from 2016. The district is still a few points more Republican than it was in 2012.

St. Cloud isn't really significantly moving in either direction. That State Senate seat has always been a notable swing district. As for the 2016->2020 trend that happened in college towns everywhere in Minnesota. College student turnout was horrendous in 2016. I remember you now thinking that Blue Earth and Winona Counties were now "Lean R" based on that, LOL.

Yeah I wasn't really saying the seat was moving right, I was just saying people should look a bit deeper into the district as a whole. I made a similar point with CO-08 when they were drawing it back then as a lot of people obviously saw the 7 point leftwards shift from 2016 > 2020 but didn't notice the fact that it actually had a rightwards swing from 2012 at least. I don't know where these sort of districts will end up in the end but I wouldn't bet on any strong Democratic trends in any of these districts.

[lfromnj]

That State Senate map actually looks like a mild D gerrymander, albeit more in how they paired the districts than drew the maps. They REALLY f[inks]ed over Hennepin County Republicans.

Also what's basically a successor to Michele Bachmann's old State Senate seat actually voted for Biden! Just 49.22-48.54 though. Karin Housley also got put in a Biden district, even if just 50.08-47.46. But she probably lost it in 2018.

Any predictions on what the independent Iron Rangers do? All the senate seats voted for Trump in the NE other than the Duluth one.

[lfromnj]

That State Senate map actually looks like a mild D gerrymander, albeit more in how they paired the districts than drew the maps. They REALLY f[inks]ed over Hennepin County Republicans.

Also what's basically a successor to Michele Bachmann's old State Senate seat actually voted for Biden! Just 49.22-48.54 though. Karin Housley also got put in a Biden district, even if just 50.08-47.46. But she probably lost it in 2018.

Any predictions on what the independent Iron Rangers do? All the senate seats voted for Trump in the NE other than the Duluth one.

They're just political opportunists so if the DFL wins the majority they probably come back. Bakk had such a personal vote he'd be fine in that barely Trump district though.

It's definitely some what opportunism but Its also regionalism. As far as I understand the DFL generally had a tradition of the state house would have a metro leader while the state senate would have an outstate leader.  By 2020 it was too skewed and they were too isolated.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/824638e2-fb9a-4287-a2e3-c0d77c02567b

If I could change it, probably something like this, have mn06 take northern Washington so MN08 takes more of MN07 which takes part of MN01 which takes MN02 which finally takes parts of Carver from MN02. Overall no significant partisanship changes. MN01 stays the same while MN02 becomes Biden +10 . Overall improvement to both COI in my opinion and improvement to paritsan fairness in making median seat a Biden district.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/824638e2-fb9a-4287-a2e3-c0d77c02567b

If I could change it, probably something like this, have mn06 take northern Washington so MN08 takes more of MN07 which takes part of MN01 which takes MN02 which finally takes parts of Carver from MN02. Overall no significant partisanship changes. MN01 stays the same while MN02 becomes Biden +10 . Overall improvement to both COI in my opinion and improvement to paritsan fairness in making median seat a Biden district.

How is that defined mathematically here?

You add up the 4th and the 5th districts ordered by margins and divide by 2, like how you calculate any other median with an even number of objects.

Thank you.  I am not sure that is very meaningful where the gap is large in the two data points that are summed.

It isn't meaningful, as obviously the 1st and 2nd are quite different districts and I did not change the map because of any partisan reasons, I merely suggest a change to it to improve COI's which coincidentally slightly benefitted Democrats.

[lfromnj]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.

[lfromnj]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.

City Data says 38% have at least a bachelor's degree.

Duluth is home to a University of Minnesota campus and like the other larger cities in outstate Minnesota has a bunch of educated jobs that any regional hub has so it's not really surprising.

True It just feels weird that Biden still did better than other Democrat recently when he was among the worst performing in the iron range region as a whole.

By the way whens the last time a Republican won the 7 county definition of the iron range before 2020? Pete Stauber managed to win it perhaps a bit due to 3rd party vote although he won majorities in Lake/Carlton county.