GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[SCNCmod]

Are most ppl assuming that this election will definitely go to a runoff?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are most ppl assuming that this election will definitely go to a runoff?

That seems to be the consensus.

[Horus]

Are most ppl assuming that this election will definitely go to a runoff?

All but certain.

[2016]

Maybe we all once again have put too much stock into Public Polling...
https://twitter.com/jmart/status/1588887900258697216
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/why-republican-insiders-think-the-gop-is-poised-for-a-blowout
“There isn’t a single private poll in America that has Herschel Walker anything but ahead,” the Republican consultant told me. “Not one.”

If this is true the Polling Industry is completely broken folks. Private Polling apparently does paint a very, very different picture compared to the Public Polling we are seeing.

[SCNCmod]

Are most ppl assuming that this election will definitely go to a runoff?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are most ppl assuming that this election will definitely go to a runoff?

That seems like the most likely outcome. The South tends to be under reactive to the nation at large and demographic shifts/Walker problems and the R shift in the national environment sort of cancel out.

[David Hume]

Walker is viewed as the pro-life and pro-family candidate even if he has a somewhat questionable past because his opponent is a pro-choice pastor. That's why the race is still a tossup.

His past isn't "questionable". He physically and emotionally abused his ex-wife, impregnated multiple women while he was married and then paid for abortions, had a child out of wedlock and then was an absentee father, and, last but not least, appears to have been a terrible father. In no way, shape or form could he be described as a "pro-life" or "pro-family" candidate - he's literally pro-abortion and hates family.

All of this is true, but Republican voters don't care. They see Walker as a vote for their legislative priorities and are going to support him because of that alone.

I'm surprised some of y'all are surprised by this.  Legislative agenda is part of what keeps me voting with the GOP, especially downballot.  Not on every issue, mind you, but still -- I can't imagine I'm an oddball in that sense. 

On the flip side you had Menéndez in 2018 where a lot of Dems who found him to be disgusting as a person but thought repudiation against Trump was more important. Menéndez did slightly underperform a generic del considering the year. But thinking about how he did like 10 points better than Phil Murphy gets me disappointed and points to a problem with our politics.

My mom, who is a pretty staunch Dem but dislikes Menéndez is considering casting a protest vote this year in NJ-08 for his son. NJ-08 is an ultra ultra safe district so her vote will be more of a message than decisive. If NJ-08 was a more competitive district she would fall in line right away.

I seriously hope they both either retire soon or get out primaried. Senator Menéndez just seems like a very flawed individual with weak moral character and child Menéndez comes across as entitled and opportunutistic; being represented by a Corrupt Senator, his Son, and Cory Booker in congress will suck.

Menendez may arrange his son to be his own successor for agreeing to retire, and the NJ Dem machine may fall in line.

[Adam Griffin]

Are most ppl assuming that this election will definitely go to a runoff?

Literally this is what both state parties and/or their respective tentacle apparatuses have been prepping for for weeks.

[President Johnson]

Vote to make the Revs mom happy!

https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1589718826907992064

[wbrocks67]

Maybe we all once again have put too much stock into Public Polling...
https://twitter.com/jmart/status/1588887900258697216
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/why-republican-insiders-think-the-gop-is-poised-for-a-blowout
“There isn’t a single private poll in America that has Herschel Walker anything but ahead,” the Republican consultant told me. “Not one.”

If this is true the Polling Industry is completely broken folks. Private Polling apparently does paint a very, very different picture compared to the Public Polling we are seeing.

.... we've seen a few D internals of this race and they have Warnock up. Naturally the GOP internals are going to have Walker up. I would expect they would say that. Not sure why though a GOP consultant would say "all private polling" has Walker up, when that's not true at all.

[jamestroll]

I do not think there's a path to a Warnock 50% win on election night. Walker has been on a steady up and up in our trackers but is routinely falling short of 50% as well. The trendline looks good for him and if it continues he could do it, but I do believe a runoff is the likely outcome.

I expect Warnock to shift to base turnout mode rather than continuing the case against Walker in these final weeks. You can already see that in the Thanksgiving ad where he explicitly warns about the possibility of a runoff with no mention of Walker.

When I use the generic chart, with no birth time, for Walker there is a T square in Walker's chart.

Walker's progressed sun is opposed by Neptune and squared by progressed Saturn. When your sun is negatively impacted by neptune and saturn .. it is generally very bad.

But let me look deeper into run off day for Georgia. That may be the more accurate day to use?

Problem is no one in the Walker or Warnock social media responded to me in regards to birthtimes.

I never got birth times on these candidates.

I'd say that Walker exceeds Warnock in the popular vote tomorrow because he has transit mars trine jupiter. But no idea and can not get that granular into whether he avoids a run off or not.

[jamestroll]

I'm withdrawing Georgia predictions based on face that progressed charts make it even more cloudly.

All I can predict is that it will be interesting .

I'll try the governors race instead

[Buzz]

Waiting in line to vote for Walker.  I thought he was dead a couple weeks ago but I’m thinking runoff now

[Woody]

Trump endorsed Walker.. along with Brian Kemp during his Dayton rally. In that case, Kemp better get his act together in 2024, unlike last time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump endorsed Walker.. along with Brian Kemp during his Dayton rally. In that case, Kemp better get his act together in 2024, unlike last time.

Yawn.  This is another example of Trump's well-known pattern of endorsing candidates at the last minute who were already going to win, just to pad his record and ego.  Kemp owes him nothing for it except possibly a return endorsement of Trump in 2024 -- just as he endorsed him in 2020.  (Surely you weren't suggesting Kemp owes Trump something nefarious, were you?)

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1589736967096311808?s=20&t=277tH6QEHa4rV...

[Inmate Trump]

Trump endorsed Walker.. along with Brian Kemp during his Dayton rally. In that case, Kemp better get his act together in 2024, unlike last time.

What do you mean by “get his act together” exactly?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Trump endorsed Walker.. along with Brian Kemp during his Dayton rally. In that case, Kemp better get his act together in 2024, unlike last time.

What do you mean by “get his act together” exactly?

Commit election fraud.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump endorsed Walker.. along with Brian Kemp during his Dayton rally. In that case, Kemp better get his act together in 2024, unlike last time.

What do you mean by “get his act together” exactly?

Commit election fraud.

Yep.

Republicans want their candidates to lie, cheat, and steal.

[Spectator]

I don’t want to turn this into a soap box, but Trump/NRSC/Walker got exactly what they deserved here. People were skeptical that Georgia,  a state that historically has minimal if any ticket splitting would do it. But we did. Walker was so uniquely trash of a candidate that he underperformed Brian Kemp by 8%, and I think this is a case study on how candidate quality does in fact matter. Every other Republican in Georgia easily won. If it ends up costing the Republicans the Senate, good. Maybe they’ll learn their lesson that you can’t get away with running the craziest mother truckers out there and still expect to win. I am so thrilled at the results in Georgia.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don’t want to turn this into a soap box, but Trump/NRSC/Walker got exactly what they deserved here. People were skeptical that Georgia,  a state that historically has minimal if any ticket splitting would do it. But we did. Walker was so uniquely trash of a candidate that he underperformed Brian Kemp by 8%, and I think this is a case study on how candidate quality does in fact matter. Every other Republican in Georgia easily won. If it ends up costing the Republicans the Senate, good. Maybe they’ll learn their lesson that you can’t get away with running the craziest mother truckers out there and still expect to win. I am so thrilled at the results in Georgia.

Thank God they did it. We would have lost a quality Senator with literally any other nominee. On to the runoff!

[Del Tachi]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

[Spectator]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

If anything it might be easier since it will be before Christmas/New Year now.

[Ferguson97]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

[Del Tachi]

One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.