COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Do we know when things will be back to normal? (meaning: large gatherings, multiple people shopping, non-essential businessis open, no National Gaurd at state boarders, not having to wear masks, etc)?

When the FDA approves remdesivir for broad use, which they won't do.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Remdesivir has shown promise and I'm definitely interested to see its potential, but the FDA approval process is slow and deliberate.  By approving a drug or treatment, the FDA is basically saying "we have conclusively determined that this item's benefits outweigh its risks."  And with something novel like COVID-19, they need to do more thorough testing before upping its status from compassionate use designation. 

There's no time left. People are dying RIGHT NOW.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I though the safety trials had already been completed for Remdesivir from its Ebola testing days and they were primarily testing for efficacy now?

That's what I thought too. I thought they also said the efficacy for this drug was fantastic.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yet another day in a row where the percentage increase in new cases was less than the day before (and testing is up again).  It wouldn't surprise me we're approaching the peak of new cases in the next couple days (the peak of active cases and deaths would follow a couple weeks behind), and we can start on the downward part of this curve by next week.

Bottom line is that I am confident that most business will reopen on May 1st.

I think cases will drop soon, but the lockdowns will last until after the pandemic is effectively over.

That's because that's how our public officials and our media operate. They need an excuse to control us. I've noticed the media has had a really tough time containing their glee about this.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I know you will disagree, but I'm really thankful we have a president like Trump during this because he will be way more eager to reopen society than the average president would be.

Trump and most of the governors (regardless of party) have almost all been terrible during this crisis.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I know you will disagree, but I'm really thankful we have a president like Trump during this because he will be way more eager to reopen society than the average president would be.

Trump and most of the governors (regardless of party) have almost all been terrible during this crisis.

I don't disagree with that; I will say that it's easy for us to criticize, but a lot harder to make decisions during a crisis.  I disagree with how far we have gone (over 40 governors of both parties have issued arguably unconstitutional lockdowns) and think we could have explored alternative strategies, but this is not an easy time for any of our leaders.

The consensus at this point is that the lockdowns need to end.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Two. Months.

Two months is completely unacceptable for this type of lockdown.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

That's fine, but please don't go to the hospital if you get sick. You obviously don't give a sh**t about healthcare workers, so why should they risk their lives to save you?

Cool! Another person I need to block!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Pretty sick of the McCarthyism against anyone who dares to oppose lockdowns.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And I don' t appreciate being told I'm going to hell because I won't endorse 2-month-long lockdowns. Everyone who knows me knows I am very careful about social distancing and avoiding germs everywhere. I am the first to call out people who won't use common sense on this.

We are supposed to be a republic where people can move about relatively freely, and I look at the numbers from locked-down countries and states on Worldometer each day only to find there hasn't been any progress - in weeks and weeks.

Our social institutions are crumbling, and this can't last. My own health can't last.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

IMO, plain simple fear made a big diff, too. If you leave in NYC, you don't need an order to stay home. Fear will make you.

I am terrified of my own government more than anything else.

I take great caution not to spread this virus. But I know that's not enough for them. It never will be.

My heart has been racing for weeks out of fear of the government.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In short, it looks like new hospital admits for COVID-19 (a leading variable) are severely under-performing the model's predictions not just in New York, but around the country.  In a lot of areas, ICUs are actually less full then they were a week ago.

At this point, I'm skeptical that hospital usage and deaths are going to be less than what this model says. I look at Worldometers each day, and somehow the number of new cases in the U.S. always manages to blast through what I predict.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

My mom and I were supposed to go to Amsterdam the 20th but decided to go to Berlin instead because the German government's website was much more helpful and the attractions are opening back up the 19th.

Of April??? I wouldn't want to go on a trip anywhere this month.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Now would be a good time to prepare for testing, testing, testing.

No excuses or whines this time.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

   Any one have thoughts about what states might become the next NYC/NJ area, not in terms of total deaths of course, but in per capita terms?  For the worst case scenario overall to play out this will need to start happening. I'm cautiously optimistic that thats not occuring. In Louisiana for instance deaths have been in the mid two figures for many days now, and the rise in ventilators, at least according to the state wide website is unfortunatly going up every day, but not by alot.
   Michigan is also concerning, but I wonder if deaths there are plateauing or if its a false calm.
On the whole I'm starting to lean more optimistic overall that we are heading for the lower side of deaths due to the virus.

CA, OH, VA.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I've never seen such cold inhumanity by our politicians.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Too bad you'll never see an article like this in a "mainstream" paper. This is the Socialist Alternative response to that Imperial College report that demanded lockdowns...

https://www.socialistalternative.org/2020/04/07/the-imperial-college-coronavirus-study-a-socialist-response

[Bandit3 the Worker]

My individual feeling is that some countries will let it run, if they haven't inadvertently done so already.

That's not really a good idea either.

I'm tired of the "moderate heroes" who keep saying "WE NEED TO LOCK DOWN EVERYTHING FOR 3 MONTHS LOLOLOL!!!" but I've known all along people shouldn't do some of the stupid things that I've known for years not to do.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What seems likely is that we will pull back some stay-at-home measures by around the end of April, as deaths seem to peak and political pressure mounts. Within a few weeks, new hot spots will emerge. What then?

No new hot spots will emerge then.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What seems likely is that we will pull back some stay-at-home measures by around the end of April, as deaths seem to peak and political pressure mounts. Within a few weeks, new hot spots will emerge. What then?

No new hot spots will emerge then.

You are amazingly overconfident.

Trust me on this. There won't be any. There can't be any. There shan't be any.

Not gonna happen.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why does everyone keep saying New York (the state with the most testing per capita) is testing at the same rate as South Korea? Worldometers shows it's not even close.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Strictly speaking, shouldn’t conservatives be the ones cautious about opening up the country and the liberals be the ones wanting to open the country more willingly?

Yes.

I don't personally know any liberals and leftists who want the lockdowns to continue.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't think anyone "wants" the lockdowns to continue. We'd all love for the country to open back up. But that's not realistic, or the logical thing to do right now

South Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, Iceland...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How are today's numbers looking?

The number of new U.S. cases is dropping like a rock.