Ontario Election 2022

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

anti-lockdown sentiment is starting to spread beyond the far-right, especially now that almost everyone is vaccinated and rhetoric has increasingly become that vaccine passes will be require boosters.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Another way to look at it: the cultural infrastructure for a youth-friendly "classical liberal" political force in Ontario isn't particularly strong, or else it's been more high-minded wishful think among its proponents.  And if we're talking about FDP-type entities, the fact that we're dealing w/an FPTP electoral system doesn't help matters.  I mean, what would we be talking about at this point?  Jeff Ballingall setting up a "Post Millennial" party for the self-professed freedom-loving-but-not-far-right kiddies?  Sure, Ontario Proud's tactics worked in '18, but that was by placing the emphasis upon Wynne and downplaying its own right-of-centre connections--sort of like how it was "Labour Isn't Working" that elected Thatcher more than raw Thatcherism.  But subsequent "Prouds", national and provincial, have met with mixed success, mainly because they got a little too cocky w/their conservativism, not unlike how the "boys in short pants" wrecked Harper's chance of reelection in '15...

Nobody is arguing there's going to be some massive surge of support for moderate conservatism or adoration of Doug Ford by mainstream youth* but the youth vote is famous for low turnout. In particular, I think the more low-frequency youth votes normally political apethtics are probably the most fatigued by restrictions right now. If both the NDP and Liberals are perceived as taking a stance on countinuing the restrictions that migh dampen youth voters turnout and maybe lead to an unexpected quarter of support of Ford from a normally apathetic portion of the populace.

People might think that the truck proters are whackos but still ultimatley be fatigued by the restrictions.


*outside of the ususal weirdos who make-up the youth wing of right-wing parties.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm not sure I understand how people being frustrated with Covid related restrictions is good for Doug Ford when he is the one who has imposed all the restrictions on ontario and Ontario has had the longest strictest lockdowns of any jurisdiction in North America. the anti lockdown vote will go for rightwing fringe parties. Those people see Ford as a traitor and sell-out!

It demobilizes young left-wing voters who are fatigued by the restrictions

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1489275826432626689
I think this here supports my point, 43% of Canadians approved of the protest, including 33% of Liberals and 29% of NDP voters. There is a partisan divide on easing restrictions but not one nearly as strong as you would expect given the current rhetoric on the issue.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The NDP and Liberals have once again lept on a political landmine, they've come out against Doug Ford's lifting of the mask mandate and vaccine passport scheme which will almost certainly drive all anti-covid restriction voters back into doug ford's camp, despite him having implemented some of the strictest restrictions of any judristction.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The NDP and Liberals have once again lept on a political landmine, they've come out against Doug Ford's lifting of the mask mandate and vaccine passport scheme which will almost certainly drive all anti-covid restriction voters back into doug ford's camp, despite him having implemented some of the strictest restrictions of any judristction.

How many of those kinds of, shall we say, electorally militant anti-restriction voters are there?  If anything'll drive them back into Doug Ford's camp, it's Randy Hillier (the most "charismatic" of the anti-restriction dissidents) opting to retire rather than to lead a provincial version of PPC.

It's not about them, it's about covid-fatigued middle ground voters who are starting to be skeptical of the restrictions. By driving them all back to the PC camp, the liberals and NDP make it that much harder to get rid of ford.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

According to every poll the vast majority of Ontarians supported mask and vaccine mandates.

Supported being the operative word, Doug Ford did in fact impose some of the longest lasting covid measures in line with that public support. Recent polls seem to suggest that's no longer the case.

And 40% of the vote is more than enough to win an election so long as the remaining 60% is equally divided.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think COVID restrictions only a major issue if we see another spike.  If cases continue to fall, it will be largely a non-issue as people have short term memories so in that case people will have largely forgotten ones in past and won't be a huge push for more.  However if things spike, then it could get interesting.  I also think on COVID fatigue its probably more lockdowns or closures of certain businesses and restrictions on activities people oppose as opposed to masks and especially vaccine passports.  Some accept that masks and vaccine passports are way to keep things open.  If OLP and NDP were smart, they would emphasize this and make clear they are against further lockdowns and they favour these so things can stay open.

Still COVID is a tricky one and no one knows what the situation will look like in June either.

As has been mentioned before in this thread, Lib/NDP would be more "pro-sensible" than "pro-lockdown"--*nobody* desires lockdowns, except as a necessary evil.  But let's also not forget that even if one is generically "Covid-fatigued", it doesn't mean one'd side with the recent trucker protests; indeed, one might argue that they actually insulted, degraded, and debased the anti-restriction cause.  That is, if Lib/NDP wanted to be *really* cheap about it, they'd accuse Krista Ford Haynes of forcing her father's hand.

Which is why, ultimately, the vaunted "middle ground voter" as described here is just a metaphor for the "silent majority" euphemism.  People who are generically fed up with Big Government overreach, with red tape, with "elites" calling the shots.  That's a beat Doug Ford knows, it's always been a cornerstone of his method of politicking.  And as the most extreme Covid restrictions fade into the rear view, he can fold that kind of fatigue into his bigger schtick on behalf of the "little guy".  We needed "Big Government" for the duration; but now it's finished, let's move on...

ETA: and w/that in mind, it's not so much that the Libs or NDP actually *would* be pro-lockdown; however, Ford-style politicking would probably seek to *frame them* as pro-lockdown extremists.  The promise of further lockdowns as just more of that readily-gaslightable "far-left radicalism" which Ontarians sought to "move on from" in '18...

How are they pro-sensible, both Howarth and Del Duca are tweeting about masks that should be kept around for 2 more weeks, what is going to be different in 2 more weeks ?. There are jurisdictions that have relaxed mask restrictions what difference would 2 weeks make. The issue is that a proportion of their support base wants covid restriction to be indefinite. They want maks wearing to become part of the new normal seeing as no different than say public nudity rules mandating you have to wear pants, and don't seem to think that being forces to disclose medical information everytime you want to enter an indoor establishment is a big deal. These people aren't a majority anymore than the hardcore convoy supports were a majority but they are loud and politically active.

Howarth and Del-Duca are not being pro-sensible covid measures, rather they are pandering to a group of people who are never going to feel safe from covid but in an ineffective way, and people can sense that. There's nothing sensible about what they are proposing.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The extra 2 week, as I understand it, is to ensure all the March Break related travel doesn't have an impact on kids in school.  Students/staff have never returned after a prolonged break without going online.  March Break (x2), Winter Break (x2), it's always been straight to online learning.  Now kids finally can return to school after a break, and let's just be cautious and keep the masks for 2 weeks.  That's what sensible people are saying, and why 2 more weeks is being suggested.

Maks will do literally nothing to change any travel related risks(which are essentially new underected variants) given that it's not like Ontario is some sort of zero-covid bubble. Masks aren't bulletproof and unless you're going for a zero-covid strategy won't make a difference.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The extra 2 week, as I understand it, is to ensure all the March Break related travel doesn't have an impact on kids in school.  Students/staff have never returned after a prolonged break without going online.  March Break (x2), Winter Break (x2), it's always been straight to online learning.  Now kids finally can return to school after a break, and let's just be cautious and keep the masks for 2 weeks.  That's what sensible people are saying, and why 2 more weeks is being suggested.

Maks will do literally nothing to change any travel related risks(which are essentially new underected variants) given that it's not like Ontario is some sort of zero-covid bubble. Masks aren't bulletproof and unless you're going for a zero-covid strategy won't make a difference.

Consider this:  masks are just about the most benign "Covid inconvenience" there is.  They're just something you wear, they're not on the scale of enforced lockdowns or capacity restrictions.  The worst they do (besides fogging up glasses when worn improperly) is bruise a few egos who feel misplaced-virility humiliation at having to wear "face diapers".  If one were to enter a post-Covid world in a slow-rollout way, keeping masks on for just a bit longer is practically nothing.  So if the *actual* middle-ground voter isn't politically worked up over the issue, that's why.

In the end, this is an election thread, not one about Covid and masking.  And at least I sought to frame the "Covid question" (and the future trajectory thereof) in broader and more election-centric terms.

They're annoying to wear and are a very visible sign of the pandemic, given how hostile parts of the liberal party and NDP are to the idea that it shouldn't be criminal not to wear one it signals they might actually be in favour of far more stringent restrictions.

Like at what point should we be able to move on the post-covid world, Doug Ford is the only one offering a clear answer. Neither the NDP or Liberals can win if they can't offer such an answer.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

While Horwath is fairly "WWC"-amenable, she's not immune to the broader trend of the non-metropolitan working class shift to the right.  And the PCs are reorienting their politics toward blue collar populism. 

I don't think Ford helps the Tories in Timmin-James Bay, he's perceived as far too Toronto centered.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

While Horwath is fairly "WWC"-amenable, she's not immune to the broader trend of the non-metropolitan working class shift to the right.  And the PCs are reorienting their politics toward blue collar populism. 

I don't think Ford helps the Tories in Timmin-James Bay, he's perceived as far too Toronto centered.

Actually, the danger is more in the *NDP* being seen as "far too Toronto centered"--by comparison, Ford populism has a certain cross-provincial "universality" about it.  And besides, his form of "Toronto centered", whether through cutting city council in half or plowing through with half-baked and potentially destructive schemes for Ontario Place and the Ontario Line, is more a form of suburban-yahoo "sticking it to the lefties and urban elites".  And those out in the hinterland appreciate that kind of "sticking it".  Plus, there's the matter of broader hinterland rightward trending, as evidenced by Charlie Angus's weak federal share last time and the surprisingly strong PPC share in TJB--and furthermore, provincially speaking, thanks to the "splicing-out" of the far-north ridings this is no longer TJB, but just plain Timmins, so there's no longer a reserve vote to counteract rightward tendencies...

There's no real evidence of that, Ford 2018 victory was based mostly on Anti-Wynne sentiment and swings in rural ridings didn't really stand out compared to to truly gargatuan swings in suburban-exurban Toronto.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Uh, that's because the rural ridings effectively came "pre-swung"; Ford didn't have to pull off a sweat there.  Under the circumstance, what he did was more like expand the hitherto-hinterland Tory big tent *into* the 905/outer-416 zone, much like Harris in '95 and Harper federally by '11.  And that was by tapping into a "common sentiment".

The fact that he didn't require a swing there to win doesn't change the fact that areas didn't really swing towards him much undercutting your thesis that Ford's brand of anti-Toronto elitism is popular there. Where is your evidence that Ford specific brand has attracted any unique support that wouldn't come to any other generic PC leader ?

And let's put it straight: for the sake of argument, "suburban-exurban Toronto" is *not* the "Toronto" in question I'm addressing here.  The Toronto I'm talking about is the *inner* 416; and there's little or no evidence (except maybe tokenly w/Mark Saunders-style candidacies) that the Ford Tories even *care* (or indeed, *need*) to make electoral inroads there.  In fact, '18's "anti-Wynne sentiment" might as well have been "anti-Toronto sentiment", hinged in large part upon Wynne being the archetypal "Toronto elite" politician; while Horwath rose essentially by soaking up that "urban Wynne" energy.  That is, the "suburban-exurbans" you speak of are part of the same "anti-Toronto" or "anti-urban elite" coalition--and for the sake of argument, those out in the latent populist boondocks like Timmins who'd feel Horwath to be a little too "big city woke" for comfort these days would gladly team up with the "Ford ethnoburbans", because there's common cause there.  Btw/those in downtown Toronto and those in Timmins, it's the former who'd be more riled up on environmental grounds over the 413 and Bradford Bypass projects; the latter would welcome anything that "gets traffic rolling" for the promised benefit of all Ontarians, even if it's not within their own jurisdiction.  (And even back in the days of Mayor Rob Ford, it might have been claimed that he was far more popular outside of Toronto than within: the archetypal "anti-Toronto" Toronto mayor.)

No one is denying the fact that Ford's families rise to power came from channeling the grievances of the amalgamated cities against downtown Toronto. What I am challenging is the idea that specific brand resonates much in isolated communities like Timmins which frankly does not have the links with Toronto specific enough to differentiate between the outer parts and inner-parts. To them and other residents of rural ridings with little connection to the downtown it might simply look like a bickering fight between two parties who you view as being fundemetnalty similar.

Where is your evidence that Ford's brand of politics resonates in rural isolated areas ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think it's the faux liberalism approach for me. I think it's weird for you to mention that NDP partisans would be upset because 'he's eaten their lunch', Who would expect any different?  Wealthy white people vote for someone just like them to represent them. That's like saying Liberal partisans in Lanark-Frontenac dislike Randy Hillier for eating their lunch?  The demographics are quite clearly there for him to win. White rich Liberals who want to keep their wealth, don't want to help out those in lower income tax brackets if it means they have to pay.  Campaign on being compassionate, open, wanting to help others, but don't do anything to create pathways to equity (financial or otherwise). The way I see it, that is the unspoken NES and Brad Bradford brand. Understand that it's relevant and beneficial to remain liberal for optics, but to maintain wealth, govern different.

Don't really get the Randy Hillier comparison.  NES appeals to a lot of people who might be open to voting NDP, I don't think Hillier had an appeal to Liberal voters whatsoever.  

"Got I hate that Randy Hillier guy! He steals Liberal votes by sounding like a Liberal but legislating like a Tory!"

- No Liberal voter, ever

He's a classical liberal.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The problem is that Ontario is not the natural home for conservative politics, Doug Ford was a weak candidate in 2018 and the liberal self-destruction speaks for itself, Yet horwath has not been able to win that election and even winning oppostion status is looking like it'll fade away despite another poor liberal leader. Many other provincal NDP parites have managed to form governments or even displace the liberals as a major provincial party, but despite cirumstances being perfect horwath has not been able to do it.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I’m not sure that Jagmeet Singh actually is personally more leftwing than is John Horgan or Rachel Notley. He just has to operate in a different political context. He has to create a space for the NDP that is distinct from the governing Trudeau Liberals so he has to present himself a more leftwing. Horgan and Notley operate in provinces with a totally polarized two party system and they don’t have to deal with the pesky nuisance of a Liberal party. If the federal NDP surged ahead of the Liberals and became the dominant non-rightwing party in Canada you would likely see Singh move to the centre left very quickly and try to occupy the space vacated by the Liberals. Mulcair tried to do that in 2015 but it was very poorly executed

I agree with that, and that's kind of my point. There's a general trend where the closer the NDP is to power (or indeed, in power), the more centrist they are.

Isn't that inherent to the nature of power in a democracy ? you gain more power by becoming representative or attractive to more people, hence as the NDP's power increase so does the number of people it has to appeal and it moves more towards the center of the provincial politics.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Final Legar is brutal, PC's at 40% with NDP, would be an absoulte wipeout if that actualy happend.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Abacus is also showing the PCs hitting 40% and ahead in all regions, including the 416. Libs at 27, NDP at 22. Slightly less commanding of a lead than Leger, but still, a 40-27-22 election would give Ford a noticeably bigger majority than in 2018 (and depending on how vote-efficiency works out, the NDP could still form official opposition with those numbers).

Additionally, Ford has the best net impression of all leaders (-1), although he's basically statistically tied with Horwath and Schreiner on this measure. Del Duca's impression is not good, 24% say positive and 36% negative for a net impression of -12, that's not good.

One other tidbit: I always find it interesting how some people answer polls in seemingly nonsensical ways. Among the Ontarians who think Ford has been a "great" premier (the best you could rank him in a scale of five options), 13% say they would vote Liberal...why?? I can imagine someone saying "he's been okay/good but the Liberals are better", but great is a pretty strong word

Hardcore ford nation people whore also hardcore liberal voters ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

So what, if anything, changed in the last few days that put the PCs back in such solid majority territory? Was it just a matter of the opposition vote not breaking one way or the other?

Probably consolidation from a lot of undedicded voters who went with the default choice of picking the incumbent.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Gilles Bisson has lost in Timmins with an absolutely monster swing to the PC.

What's the reason for that? Timmins might be the single largest swing in the province.

Mayor of Timmins ran for the PC's

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I just love that Ontarians reacting with the normal "I'm leaving" decleration keep naming more right wing places like Alberta or Sasketchwan as their destination.