latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Out of curiosity, who is betting on Haley?

Maybe Bill Kristol:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/bill-kristol-wants-to-talk-to-nikki-haley-about-running-against-trump.html

[BlueSwan]

Out of curiosity, who is betting on Haley?

Maybe Bill Kristol:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/bill-kristol-wants-to-talk-to-nikki-haley-about-running-against-trump.html

Bill Kristol should give it up and just vote for democrats until the GOP possibly becomes sane again (looks doubtful at the moment). I listen to the Weekly Standard podcast, which is almost non-stop Trump Bashing until the discussion falls on democrats. I'm not sure how these people can be so right about Trump, yet so delusional when it comes to democrats. It is like they equate democrats with the far left, which is very very far from the truth.

[Mr. Morden]

Beto-mania is going wild, as O’Rourke is now a close second place to Harris:

Democratic nomination:

Harris 19.2
O’Rourke 18.5
Warren 12.5
Gabbard 11.4
Biden 10.5
Sanders 10.5
Booker 7.8
Gillibrand 7.2

Republican nomination:

Trump 75.0
Pence 10.0
Haley 6.0
Ryan 4.3
Kasich 4.2

Four years ago today:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Walker 12.5
Paul 11.6
Romney 11.6
Christie 10.9

[NewYorkExpress]

Beto-mania is going wild, as O’Rourke is now a close second place to Harris:

Democratic nomination:

Harris 19.2
O’Rourke 18.5
Warren 12.5
Gabbard 11.4
Biden 10.5
Sanders 10.5
Booker 7.8
Gillibrand 7.2

Republican nomination:

Trump 75.0
Pence 10.0
Haley 6.0
Ryan 4.3
Kasich 4.2

Four years ago today:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Walker 12.5
Paul 11.6
Romney 11.6
Christie 10.9

I'd ask how Beto's odds shot that high up when he lost...but then I remembered Rick Santorum's loss in 2006, and how he almost beat Mitt Romney for the nomination in 2012.

[RaphaelDLG]

WTF is Gabbard doing at a higher likelihood of winning than Sanders and Biden

[GoTfan]

WTF is Gabbard doing at a higher likelihood of winning than Sanders and Biden

Yeah, that does seem a bit suspect, and I say this as a fan of hers.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

WTF is Gabbard doing at a higher likelihood of winning than Sanders and Biden

It's because betting markets mean absolutely nothing.

[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke actually takes the lead, and many of the other share prices continue to be rather volatile in the wake of the midterms:

O’Rourke 19.2
Harris 18.2
Warren 12.8
Biden 10.0
Bullock 9.1
Gabbard 8.8
Sanders 8.8
Gillibrand 7.2

[Progressive Pessimist]

Out of curiosity, who is betting on Haley?

Maybe Bill Kristol:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/bill-kristol-wants-to-talk-to-nikki-haley-about-running-against-trump.html

Bill Kristol should give it up and just vote for democrats until the GOP possibly becomes sane again (looks doubtful at the moment). I listen to the Weekly Standard podcast, which is almost non-stop Trump Bashing until the discussion falls on democrats. I'm not sure how these people can be so right about Trump, yet so delusional when it comes to democrats. It is like they equate democrats with the far left, which is very very far from the truth.

That's what a lot of anti-Trump Republicans need to do. Put your pride aside and vote for Democrats if just to stop Trump, his agenda, and the GOP's continued devolution under him.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris narrowly ahead again:

Harris 18.2
O’Rourke 17.9
Warren 12.5

Out of curiosity, who is betting on Haley?

Maybe Bill Kristol:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/bill-kristol-wants-to-talk-to-nikki-haley-about-running-against-trump.html

Bill Kristol should give it up and just vote for democrats until the GOP possibly becomes sane again (looks doubtful at the moment). I listen to the Weekly Standard podcast, which is almost non-stop Trump Bashing until the discussion falls on democrats. I'm not sure how these people can be so right about Trump, yet so delusional when it comes to democrats. It is like they equate democrats with the far left, which is very very far from the truth.

That's what a lot of anti-Trump Republicans need to do. Put your pride aside and vote for Democrats if just to stop Trump, his agenda, and the GOP's continued devolution under him.

The primary and the general election are different beasts though.  So why shouldn't Kristol back candidates he prefers in the GOP primary, including encouraging Haley or whoever else he might prefer to run?  That doesn't preclude him jumping ship for the Democratic nominee in the general election, assuming that Trump is re-nominated.

[BlueSwan]

Harris narrowly ahead again:

Harris 18.2
O’Rourke 17.9
Warren 12.5

Out of curiosity, who is betting on Haley?

Maybe Bill Kristol:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/bill-kristol-wants-to-talk-to-nikki-haley-about-running-against-trump.html

Bill Kristol should give it up and just vote for democrats until the GOP possibly becomes sane again (looks doubtful at the moment). I listen to the Weekly Standard podcast, which is almost non-stop Trump Bashing until the discussion falls on democrats. I'm not sure how these people can be so right about Trump, yet so delusional when it comes to democrats. It is like they equate democrats with the far left, which is very very far from the truth.

That's what a lot of anti-Trump Republicans need to do. Put your pride aside and vote for Democrats if just to stop Trump, his agenda, and the GOP's continued devolution under him.

The primary and the general election are different beasts though.  So why shouldn't Kristol back candidates he prefers in the GOP primary, including encouraging Haley or whoever else he might prefer to run?  That doesn't preclude him jumping ship for the Democratic nominee in the general election, assuming that Trump is re-nominated.

Sure. I mean, if he can wreck some havoc in the GOP primaries, I'm all for that. I think my comment was more directed at the whole Weekly Standard crew who seem incredibly reluctant to vote for democrats to actually stop Trump. I don't think any of them actually voted for Hillary. They went McMullin or Johnson or abstained altogether.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, Gabbard’s in fourth place, above Biden and Sanders.  The Gabbard love is more extreme on Betfair than other betting sites, but she’s above 5 basically everywhere, despite not registering at all in the media conversation about 2020.  I feel like she might be a 2020 Ron Paul in terms of betting market love, with a legion of admirers constantly inflating her price.

Democratic nomination:

Harris 17.9
O’Rourke 17.2
Warren 12.5
Gabbard 11.6
Biden 10.5
Sanders 8.1
Bullock 6.2
Gillibrand 6.2
Klobuchar 5.3

Republican nomination:

Trump 71.4
Pence 10.0
Haley 5.7
Kasich 4.2
Ryan 3.1
Romney 2.6

[RaphaelDLG]

How do you calculate your percentages, Morden?

I understand how ratios work but obviously there is an incredible amount of juice so stuff adds up to way more than 100%

[Mr. Morden]

How do you calculate your percentages, Morden?

I understand how ratios work but obviously there is an incredible amount of juice so stuff adds up to way more than 100%

Well, e.g., Harris is listed as 23/5, so that translates to 5 / (23 + 5) = 17.9%.  Yes, you're right that if you added up everyone, it would be more than 100%.  I guess as time marches on and volume increases, that'll be less of an issue (eventually).

[SCNCmod]

Looks like Beto will soon overtake Harris.  And if he ever really hints at jumping in... he will jump a fair amount.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's really amazing how #Betomenia became a thing.

[Mr. Morden]

Tulsi-mania subsides a bit:

Harris 17.9
O’Rourke 15.4
Warren 12.2
Biden 10.5
Booker 7.8
Sanders 7.5
Gillibrand 7.2
Gabbard 6.6
Brown 5.3
Klobuchar 5.3

[eric82oslo]

Tulsi-mania subsides a bit:

Harris 17.9
O’Rourke 15.4
Warren 12.2
Biden 10.5
Booker 7.8
Sanders 7.5
Gillibrand 7.2
Gabbard 6.6
Brown 5.3
Klobuchar 5.3

Sanders and Gillibrand should be higher. Biden lower.

[SCNCmod]

Does anyone happen to know What were the betting odds like at this time in 2006 & 2002...on the Dems side?

Also Does anyone know what the odd were like around this time in 2014...on the Republican side?

[Mr. Morden]

Does anyone happen to know What were the betting odds like at this time in 2006 & 2002...on the Dems side?

Also Does anyone know what the odd were like around this time in 2014...on the Republican side?

Republicans in 2014:

Bush 20.8
Rubio 15.8
Romney 13.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Walker 10.5
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.3

Dems in 2006 (on Tradesports):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=49244.msg1050293#msg1050293

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[SCNCmod]

Does anyone happen to know What were the betting odds like at this time in 2006 & 2002...on the Dems side?

Also Does anyone know what the odd were like around this time in 2014...on the Republican side?

Republicans in 2014:

Bush 20.8
Rubio 15.8
Romney 13.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Walker 10.5
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.3

Dems in 2006 (on Tradesports):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=49244.msg1050293#msg1050293

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So will 2020 be more like 2006 or 2014 or a combo of the 2?...
2006: The Final 3 were all in the poll's Top 4.
2014:  The Final 2 were not even in the poll's Top 6

[Kleine Scheiße]

Where is Abercrombie?

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm a little shocked there aren't people speculating on Delaney and Ojeda, given they...you know, are actually running.

We'd all have egg on our collective faces if they turned out to be the only serious candidates for the Democrats.

[henster]

I would buy more Gabbard, I could see her getting a bit of a cult following like Bernie. She will rake in a lot of small donors and she's not media shy.

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination:

Harris 18.2
O’Rourke 16.7
Warren 11.9
Biden 9.1
Sanders 7.2
Brown 7.0
Booker 6.4
Klobuchar 5.9
Gabbard 5.3
Gillibrand 4.8
Zuckerberg 3.7
Bullock 3.6

Republican nomination:

Trump 71.4
Pence 11.6
Haley 6.8
Kasich 4.2
Ryan 3.4

I'm a little shocked there aren't people speculating on Delaney and Ojeda, given they...you know, are actually running.

That seems like a thin distinction.  Some of the others are probably ~80-90% likely to officially declare, and are already running "shadow" campaigns.  The fact that, say, Harris hasn't officially launched her campaign yet while Delaney has is a matter of a formality.  That's priced into the market. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That seems like such an absurd scenario that it's not worth considering.  Dozens of potential candidates have signaled interest, though probably only about half of them may end up making it official.  But there's no way it's going to be zero of them making it official.  If enough of them declined, then that's all the more opening for the others to pull the trigger.