Tender's FINAL 2018 Mid-Term Prediction Thread (user search)
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  Tender's FINAL 2018 Mid-Term Prediction Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Tender's FINAL 2018 Mid-Term Prediction Thread  (Read 1324 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: November 05, 2018, 01:31:26 PM »
Senate:

Net gain: D+3




Governors:

Net gain: D+14




House:

240 D
195 R

D+46 seats compared with 2016.

Turnout:

Will be around ~47% US-wide (at 50% or more in the competetive states, but only around 40% in non-competetive states such as CA). The 47% number is based on Prof. Michael McDonald's calculation, using total ballots counted in each state as a % of the VEP.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2018, 01:34:57 PM »
My detailed predictions:

NV: Rosen +3
AZ: Sinema +2
MT: Tester +3
TX: Beto +0.5
ND: Cramer +6
MO: McCaskill +2
IN: Donnelly +3
WV: Manchin +9
TN: Bredesen +2
FL: Nelson +2

Everyone else wins by double digits.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2018, 01:44:39 PM »
AK: Begich +2
NV: Sisolak +3
SD: Sutton +1
KS: Kelly (Laura) +3
OK: Stitt +3
IA: Hubbell +3
WI: Evers +3
OH: Cordray +2
GA: Abrams +2 (no runoff)
FL: Gillum +3
NH: Kelly (Molly) +0.5

OR (Brown) and CT (Lamont) will win by anywhere between 5 and 10 points.

NM, IL, MI and ME are safe D pickups and I'm not bothering with numbers there.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2018, 01:49:00 PM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on November 05, 2018, 01:46:46 PM
This should have been in the Bold Predictions thread.

Maybe, but we'll see.

I have a personal MoE set for myself of only getting 2 races for Governor and 2 races for Senate wrong.

For the House, I hope my error rate will be no more than +/- 5 seats in the end.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2018, 02:10:33 PM »

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2018, 04:11:15 PM »
Quote from: riceowl on November 05, 2018, 02:24:08 PM
Feeling dumb, but what are the * and ^ ?

The *s are pickups via defeat of an incumbent.

The ^s are pickups in open seat races.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 03:07:48 AM »
Bonus prediction for the first race of the night (KY-06):

50% Amy McGrath (D)
48% Andy Barr (R-Inc.)
  2% Others
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2018, 12:44:24 PM »
Probably my worst predictions for US elections since 2006.
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