Tender's FINAL 2018 Mid-Term Prediction Thread

[Tender Branson]

Senate:

Net gain: D+3




Governors:

Net gain: D+14




House:

240 D
195 R

D+46 seats compared with 2016.

Turnout:

Will be around ~47% US-wide (at 50% or more in the competetive states, but only around 40% in non-competetive states such as CA). The 47% number is based on Prof. Michael McDonald's calculation, using total ballots counted in each state as a % of the VEP.

[Tender Branson]

My detailed predictions:

NV: Rosen +3
AZ: Sinema +2
MT: Tester +3
TX: Beto +0.5
ND: Cramer +6
MO: McCaskill +2
IN: Donnelly +3
WV: Manchin +9
TN: Bredesen +2
FL: Nelson +2

Everyone else wins by double digits.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin is in deeper trouble than most people realize imho, and I think that many will be in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Dems are not winning TX or TN. Also, Nelson isn't winning by just 2% in any world where Dems pick up three seats.

[Tender Branson]

AK: Begich +2
NV: Sisolak +3
SD: Sutton +1
KS: Kelly (Laura) +3
OK: Stitt +3
IA: Hubbell +3
WI: Evers +3
OH: Cordray +2
GA: Abrams +2 (no runoff)
FL: Gillum +3
NH: Kelly (Molly) +0.5

OR (Brown) and CT (Lamont) will win by anywhere between 5 and 10 points.

NM, IL, MI and ME are safe D pickups and I'm not bothering with numbers there.

[Skye]

This should have been in the Bold Predictions thread.

[Tender Branson]

This should have been in the Bold Predictions thread.

Maybe, but we'll see.

I have a personal MoE set for myself of only getting 2 races for Governor and 2 races for Senate wrong.

For the House, I hope my error rate will be no more than +/- 5 seats in the end.

[BundouYMB]

The predictions in your OP are similar to mine, except I expect Democrats to pick up more seats in the house. My current ratings have D+91.

The margins you posted farther down in the thread I do not fully agree with.  I expect Cordray, Evers, Nelson, and Tester to win by substantially more than you predicted.

[junior chįmp]

This should have been in the Bold Predictions thread.

Honestly....I could see this if 2018 ends up as some realigning midterm electiom like 1994 (which I've been suspecting it might be) Nobody predicted the wipe out the Dems would face in 1994. (if you go back and look at the NY Gov election that year....Cuomo led almost every poll and some by double digits in the weeks leading up to the election. Nobody though NY would flip for example)

[Yellowhammer]

The predictions in your OP are similar to mine, except I expect Democrats to pick up more seats in the house. My current ratings have D+91.

Lol

[OBD]

Manchin is in deeper trouble than most people realize imho, and I think that many will be in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

Including yourself?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin is in deeper trouble than most people realize imho, and I think that many will be in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

Including yourself?

No, because I’m prepared for it. If you are implying that Manchin wins, I’ll be in for an awakening sure, but not a rude one.

[Tender Branson]

Dems are not winning TX or TN ...

[OBD]

Manchin is in deeper trouble than most people realize imho, and I think that many will be in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

Including yourself?

No, because I’m prepared for it. If you are implying that Manchin wins, I’ll be in for an awakening sure, but not a rude one.

Oh really?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin is in deeper trouble than most people realize imho, and I think that many will be in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

Including yourself?

No, because I’m prepared for it. If you are implying that Manchin wins, I’ll be in for an awakening sure, but not a rude one.

Oh really?

Indeed, now prepare for Knute Buehler to lose tomorrow bwahaha.

[😥]

Senate


Democratic Party: 51
Repiblican Party: 49

Governors


House

[Pericles]

Manchin is in deeper trouble than most people realize imho, and I think that many will be in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

Lmao, so glad this BS will soon come to an end when Manchin cleans up.

[riceowl]

Feeling dumb, but what are the * and ^ ?

[Woody]

You're not serious?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Manchin is in deeper trouble than most people realize imho, and I think that many will be in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

You're just underestimating Manchin so when he inevitably wins tomorrow you'll post Manchin "Deal with It" memes as you screech "I CANT BELIEVE HE DID IT"

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin is in deeper trouble than most people realize imho, and I think that many will be in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

You're just underestimating Manchin so when he inevitably wins tomorrow you'll post Manchin "Deal with It" memes as you screech "I CANT BELIEVE HE DID IT"

What what? I do not know what you are talking about.

[MillennialModerate]

Manchin is in deeper trouble than most people realize imho, and I think that many will be in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

Why are you just telling us this now?

You wait until election eve to let us know you feel this way? This has taoen me by surprise

[Tender Branson]

Feeling dumb, but what are the * and ^ ?

The *s are pickups via defeat of an incumbent.

The ^s are pickups in open seat races.

[riceowl]

Feeling dumb, but what are the * and ^ ?

The *s are pickups via defeat of an incumbent.

The ^s are pickups in open seat races.

Very well.

[CatoMinor]

This seems a little too optimistic for the Dems