Spanish elections and politics

[Mike88]

I know it's still early, Barcelona is only 4% in, but i think JxCat may be doing better than expected. We'll see.

[Velasco]

Cs is very strong. Oranges will win, apparently. It's up to see if there's pro-independence majority.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I agree that JxCat seems like it will have a good night. I wouldn't be surprised if they were the number 1 secessionist force. Also PP seems like it will be completely decimated. They won't drop out of parliament but they'll be lucky if they get 4 seats. They might not even have their own parliamentary group!

11.74% of the vote is now in:

Cs: 24.32% (35)
JxCat: 23.53% (35)
ERC: 21.50% (31)
PSC: 13.75% (18)
ECP: 6.68% (8 )
CUP: 4.51% (5)
PP: 4.17% (3)

Secessionists 71 seats (-1 compared to 2015). Majority of 3

[Velasco]

Everything points to a big Arrimadas win.

[Oryxslayer]

Important to note that Barcelona appears to be 7% behind every other state.

Hell, clicking on the city gives me 4% vote counted.

[Former President tack50]

Yup, there's barely any vote from Barcelona proper. Keep in mind that the best unionist stronghold isn't the city itself but the suburbs, the "red belt" as it's known (former PSC voting areas). Barcelona city isn't that unionist. They voted 47.2% for secessionists in 2015, compared to 47.8% in all of Catalonia.

[BundouYMB]

Can someone post a link to the results?

[Oryxslayer]

Yup, there's barely any vote from Barcelona proper. Keep in mind that the best unionist stronghold isn't the city itself but the suburbs, the "red belt" as it's known (former PSC voting areas). Barcelona city isn't that unionist. They voted 47.2% for secessionists in 2015, compared to 47.8% in all of Catalonia.

Oh yeah, I doubt any unionist bombs are going to be dropping throughout the count - its just that the current count probably is overstating separatist support due to the majority of the count curently coming from rurals.

[Oryxslayer]

Tarragonia just flipping to C's BTW.

[BundouYMB]

Can someone post a link to the results?

https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/09AU/DAU09999CM.htm?lang=ca

Thank you.

[Former President tack50]

35% of the vote is in

JxCat: 22.56% (35)
Cs: 25.03% (34)
ERC: 21.55% (32)
PSC: 13.81% (18)
CatComú: 6.97% (8 )
CUP: 4.37% (5)
PP: 4.15% (3)

Most commenters are saying that secessionists will keep their majority.

[jaichind]

Looking pretty good for the secessionists

[jaichind]

The fall of PP to below the seat thresholds in different regions indirectly helps the bigger parties of which 2 of the 3 are  secessionists.  If the entire  Catalonia was one large PR region that would work to help the secessionists less.

[Former President tack50]

52% in

Cs: 25.29% (35)
JxCat: 22.19% (34)
ERC: 21.84% (32)
PSC: 13.83% (18)
CUP: 4.35% (4)
PP: 4.17% (4)

From the few changes seems like there's a PP-JxCat swing in Tarragona and another one between Cs and ERC somewhere else.

[Mike88]

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

[jaichind]

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.

[Mike88]

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.

I know. Here in Portugal we also had weird results because of the d'hondt method, but the problem is that after all the fuss, nothing changed basically. If JxCat holds it's second place, it will be interesting to see the reaction of ERC.

[Former President tack50]

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.

Technically speaking it's not because of D'Hondt, but because of malapportionment. Barcelona has less seats than it would be fairly entitled to. Lleida's votes are worth twice as much as Barcelona's. In theory well apportioned seats (or better yet, only one at-large constituency) would yield proportional results even with D'Hondt

Though to be fair Catalonia is far from the worst offender in this regard. If you want to look at bad regional elections in Spain, check out the Canary Islands (where the 3rd voted party gets the most seats and 0.6% gives you 3 seats but 5.9% gives you none) or Castille-La Mancha (where 8.5% of the vote gives you 0 seats)

[Velasco]

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.

I know. Here in Portugal we also had weird results because of the d'hondt method, but the problem is that after all the fuss, nothing changed basically. If JxCat holds it's second place, it will be interesting to see the reaction of ERC.

It's the malapportinonment, not the D'Hondt system.

Lleida, Girona and Tarragona are overrepresented. On the other hand, Barcelona has 73% of the population and elects 63% of the seats. With electoral districts ranging between 15 and 85 seats, the D'Hondt system is very proportional. It rewards major parties when electoral districts elect a little number of seats, as it happens in the Spanish general elections with a many provinces electing less than 6 seats.

[jaichind]

Secessionists down to 69 seats now ..

[Zinneke]

PSC can still take a seat off of JxC in Barcelona.

[Oryxslayer]

Secessionists down to 69 seats now ..

I'm still seeing 70 - 34 JUNT, 32 - ERC, 4 -CUP. Is it a end result projection?

[Former President tack50]

^
No, it seems that in the mean time JxCat took back a seat from PSC (who is now at 17)

Also, an interesting side effect of this elections is that PP and CUP will have to share a joint parliamentary group. Neither has enough seats for an individual parliamentary group (they'd need 5), so they'll both go to the mixed group.

That basically means that they'll have to share their talking time, their seats in commitees, etc.

[jaichind]

I think D'Hondt plays a large role due to the larger party bonus effect.  If we view  Catalonia as one large district the seat distribution would be

            Current      If one large PR region
C's:          36                      35
JxC:         34                      30
ERC:        32                      30
PSC:        17                      19
CeC:         8                       10
CUP:         4                         6
PP:           4                         5

JxC  ERC over performance is more at the expense of smaller parties

[Zinneke]

Caudillo Albiol almost in tears. Some Clown DJ at the ANC headquarters. This is gunna be a fun night.