🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Rikschard]

12pm turnout numbers:

2021: 17.07% (+1.25%)
2016: 15.82%
2011: 13.39%
2006: 19.32%

Very high turnout so far. Next turnout update at 5pm with numbers from 4pm.

Is early voting already counted in that number?

[Rikschard]

Well, this is historic. Beja just finished counting and Ventura polled ahead of João Ferreira.

Interestingly, João Ferreira didn't lose that much, it was 15,6 in 2016 and now 15,0.
The same thing is happened in Portalegre: right now Ventura gained 20% while Ferreira actually improved from 7,1 to 7,3.

[Rikschard]

PSD is set to lose Viseu district. Only Santana Lopes lost it in 2005.

And Bragança is oh so close.

[Rikschard]

Wow, and PS actually won Bragança and got an MP gain. By 15 votes, 0,02%

[Rikschard]

And PS just went ahead in Leiria. Could be a first. A clean sweep except Madeira.

[Rikschard]

How's the Trotskyist party that keeps nominating Instagram baddies as its PM candidates despite being led by a middle-aged professor doing?

MAS (Movimento Alternativa Socialista) is currently at 0.11% - which I believe is still an improvement over their 2019 showing. Lol.

Yup +0,06

It seems likely that Chega will miss their goal to reach the 7% mark.

how is cds doing?

CDS has 1,64 down from 4,32

[Rikschard]

The leadership of Costa is undisputed, regardless the PS gets a majority or comes close  to it

Is the PPM running?

Just running alone in Madeira, and running in a coalition with PSD.CDS in the Azores.

[Rikschard]

Most left wing parish in 2019, São Martinho, Alcácer do Sal, Setúbal, this year:

44,5 CDU (-18,8)
41,2 PS (+12,7)
5,3   PSD
1,6   CH
1,2   BE
0,8   CDS
0,8   IL

And the most right wing, Boalhosa, Ponte de Lima, Viana do Castelo:

43,1 CDS (-32,2)
27,8 PSD (+10,0)
22,2 PS (+18,1)
5,7   CH

[Rikschard]

CMTV just called a majority for PS.

[Rikschard]

CMTV just called a majority for PS.

Yeah, in Setúbal, for example, is just ridiculous what's happened to the leftwing, total colapse. And it's benefiting the PS.

Yup, in Seixal where I vote PS got its best result ever (46%), while CDU didn't even reach 10%...

[Rikschard]

CMTV just called a majority for PS.

Yeah, in Setúbal, for example, is just ridiculous what's happened to the leftwing, total colapse. And it's benefiting the PS.

Any thoughts on why the leftwing did this badly?

Two reasons, I think: Left wing voters didn't understand the failure to pass the budget, and were very upset with the political crisis that was uncalled for. And tactical voting, due to close polls, that actually weren't.

[Rikschard]

Porto District (40 seats) is done counting.
PS 42,5% (+5,9) - 19 (+2)
PSD 32,3% (+1,2) - 14 (-1)
IL 5,1% (+3,6) - 2 (+2)
BE 4,8% (-5,3) - 2 (-2)
CH 4,4% (+3,8 ) - 2 (+2)
CDU 3,3% (-1,5) - 1 (-1)
PAN 1,7% (-1,8 ) - 0 (-1)
CDS 1,5% (-1,9) - 0 (-1)

PSD lost 1 seat despite increasing its vote share in a fun example of D’Hondt.

That reminds me of the local election in Alenquer, Lisboa where PS lost 11%, but got a bigger majority.

Also if Costa actually pulls this off, it completely makes up for the underwhelming perfomances in 2015 and 2019. He'll probably break Cavaco's record as PM with most time in power.