2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Oryxslayer]

Identifying good candidates is quite literally the only thing Schumer is good at.

This is sincere, right? Who has he drafted previously?

He has been the brains behind most of the party's A+ recruits since he led the DSCC in 2006. From what I've heard, he essentially recruited Bredesen single-handedly (which made Bredesen's ridiculous vow to oppose him as leader even more absurd). He should be permanent DSCC leader imo, somebody tougher and more skilled at legislating should be leader.

Yeah, Bredesen was such a star recruit he lost by 10 points.

But he still forced Republicans to spend money in a normally safe state. Money that could have gone to West Virginia or Montana.

And it (plus TX, AZ, NV) allowed dems to play offense in a year where they should have numerically been playing pure defense. Its remarkable considering the general math of the map that the top battleground map in September had 4 Pub seats and 6 Dem seats.

And he lost by only ten when the normal dem would lose by 30.

And he had coattails that allowed downticket dems to pick up some gerrymandered pub seats in the Memphis/Nashville/Knoxville regions.

Even though Bresden lost, there is a lot to be gained from having a good recruit in race rather then a sacrificial lamb.

[Oryxslayer]

The democratic party and in Yuma is basically 100% Hispanic. Hispanic turnout dropped in 2018 compared to 2016, so sinema didn't have as high a ceiling there when compared to a potential 2020 race.

[Oryxslayer]

I get the feeling that the AZ primary is starting do early because there is a understanding that a "shadow primary" is better than the actual one. The date being so late means that if there is a unresolved primary at the time of polling weakens the party overall. But if there is enough time for a shadow primary that ends with one candidate dropping out (who can raise more money, activate more voters, generate more enthusiasm, poll higher) then the party is in a better position to win.

[Oryxslayer]

Gallego lost the shadow primary then, couldn't get enough donor support. Kelly gets off easy, but will McSally avoid a primary in a state where the crazies now run Republican party? Also...

Gallego will win the primary 80-20.

This aged incredibly poorly incredibly fast.

[Oryxslayer]

Martha starting to run out of senate seats to run in.

Utah seems to like Faux Moderates, maybe she can find a way to move north and oust Lee in 2022.

[Oryxslayer]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1283795104248078337?s=20

Why are you so bad at this McSally?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JacobNPeters1/status/1319837808672919553?s=20

There's a reason it appeared on the shiftier side of the GOP apparatus rather than the official campaign arm or something like the NYPost.

[Oryxslayer]

This kind of feels like the ad Elizabeth Dole ran in 2008 against Kay Hagan. It had a woman who sounded an awful lot like Kay Hagan saying "There is no god" over pictures of Hagan. Kay Hagan was a Sunday school teacher, the ad backfired against Dole and she lost by a decent margin.

I reckon this will backfire on McSally too.

I mean, McSally is in a position where things backfiring would mean she loses Pinal, Navajoe, and Yuma - she has already lost the state.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/azelectionlaw/status/1321292679142121473?s=20

It's pretty clear that Kelly is in the right, the Breitbart wing is pushing this despite it being false and being told not to by the Senate GOP, and Kelly has evidence to back it up. Seems like that there will be some settlement after the election when it no longer matters.