IA-Selzer: Trump +7

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Just like 2016...

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GAME OVER LIBS!

Biden doesn't need Iowa.

No, but this is a sign that there's likely once again a systemic polling error in the midwest. Biden is gonna really have to hope he locks down AZ, FL and NC.

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I see we have gone into full meltdown mode. Over one poll. In a small state that won’t decide the election.

That one small state and this one poll tells us a lot about the state of the upper midwest.

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I take it this page is gonna reach 6 pages by Midnight EST?

Changing my prediction to 12 pages by 9 PM EST. Christ...

Well, it's a terrible sign for Biden. Most of this forum wants America to be free of fascism. Should we be happy? What's your point?

[Horus]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely GOP flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Her win in the 2018 wave was anemic. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

[Horus]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely GOP flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Her win in the 2018 wave was anemic. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

How "doesn't" Cedar Rapids count? It's the second largest city in the state.

That doesn't mean it's a major city.

[Horus]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They're entrenched and Bustos is a high ranking Dem. Kind will be gone in the next Dem midterm and Bustos will only survive due to gerrymandering. If Illinois passes fair redistricting she's likely out too in the next D midterm.

[Horus]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They're entrenched and Bustos is a high ranking Dem. Kind will be gone in the next Dem midterm and Bustos will only survive due to gerrymandering. If Illinois passes fair redistricting she's likely out too in the next D midterm.

Well, Miller-Meeks doesn’t seem to be pulling away with IA-2 either.

Miller-Meeks is a perennial candidate who has her own issues. The Republican in IA-01 is much stronger.

[Horus]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

It's a heavily white midwestern state, of course he is.