The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

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Hillary Clinton says a 2024 presidential run by her is “out of the question”:

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-2024-presidential-campaign-biden-democrats-2022-6

While speaking with the Financial Times, the former first lady and US senator said that she expected President Joe Biden to stand for reelection in two years. When asked if she could view herself launching a campaign — after unsuccessfully challenging Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination in 2008 and losing the general election to Donald Trump in 2016 — Clinton quickly waved off such a proposition.

"No, out of the question," she said.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders was in Iowa on Friday to support striking UAW workers:

https://www.thehawkeye.com/story/news/2022/06/19/case-new-holland-strikers-react-bernie-sanders-burlington-iowa-visit/7622573001/

I'm starting to think that if Biden doesn't run for whatever reason, Bernie gives it one last shot.

Bernie really should step aside and let a younger member of his wing of the party, like AOC run instead.

I don't think they're in the same "wing" though. Bernie is part of the old left, AOC is part of the new left.

AOC is fundamentally unelectable and would lose in a landslide if she was the nominee and I think Bernie knows that. A less "woke" less-elite progressive like Ro Khanna would be a better Sanders ideological successor, but I don't think he runs.

The truth is that 150-year old Bernie would still be more electable than basically any other prominent progressive, because the rest of them have been sucked into the culture wars and being online "influencers". The squad has no working-class appeal, Bernie does.

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Some updates from Haley and Pompeo about their decision timelines:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-mulling-run-president-not-waiting-trump

"I don't think I have to make that decision until the first of next year," Haley told Fox News. "I've never lost a race. I'm not going to start now.  If there's a place for me, I will put 1000% and we'll finish it."

"We will turn to that very question come the end of this year, the beginning of next year," said Pompeo. "We will pray, we will work."

If Haley runs for president she'll lose her first race then.

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Gabbard asked about 2024:

When asked about a potential run for president in 2024, Gabbard said, "It's not something I'm thinking about."

"I'm really focused on how I can best be a voice for common sense, hold leaders accountable and speak the truth," she said. "

I could very easily see her either trying to primary Biden or being the VP on an independent Yang ticket.

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Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

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Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

He could always do a Cheney and move back to New York.

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https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/trump-on-the-verge-of-announcing-his-political-future-lindsey-graham/video/f746e6397e668fddcd435220bb52bdca

https://www.salon.com/2022/06/30/infowars-host-alex-jones-says-will-announce-2024-presidency-run-on-july-4th_partner/

Alex Jones and Lindsey Graham both implying they have knowledge that Trump is planning a July 4th announcement.
I doubted he would go for it this early but he might just do it.

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Meanwhile, more Hutchinson talk about “foundation laying”:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/asa-hutchinson-2024-presidential-run-against-trump

Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Friday he is "laying down the foundation" for a possible 2024 presidential run that could see him face off against former President Donald Trump.

The Republican governor said that testimony given to the House Jan. 6 committee over the past three weeks has shown that Trump "acted irresponsibly" and was a "risk to the nation."
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Hutchinson, who is term-limited and is not seeking reelection, said he has been preparing for a possible White House bid, testing the waters to see "if that is something that is going to be helpful to our country."

"No decision will be made until after this election in 2022," he added.

He's gonna run and drop out before Iowa.

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No politician goes to Iowa by accident…

https://twitter.com/karilake/status/1622717441485987842?s=46&t=GupHRUqXT96i7_HZGOfStg

She's running to be Trump's VP.

I highly doubt she'll get it though. She may either be Trump's press secretary or run for office again in Arizona, but she ain't gonna be VP in 2024.
Trump's VP shortlist was already leaked as being Noem, Greene, Stefanik and Gabbard.

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Does this look right to people for the GOP:

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo
Hutchinson (AR)

MAYBE:

Scott (SC)
Sununu
Christie

If they all got in that'd be 10, but I'm expecting some in the Maybe category to not run.

Move Scott (SC) to obviously running, and add in Bolton and Suarez for maybe.

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Does this look right to people for the GOP:

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo
Hutchinson (AR)

MAYBE:

Scott (SC)
Sununu
Christie

If they all got in that'd be 10, but I'm expecting some in the Maybe category to not run.

Move Scott (SC) to obviously running, and add in Bolton and Suarez for maybe.

Noem probably deserves a spot in the Maybe category as well.

Noem isn't running. She's going to endorse Trump and try to get a VP slot.

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I can’t imagine any congressional democrat or governor endorsing someone besides Biden. I can see a few trying to stay out of it for re-election

Manchin may endorse whoever the No Labels party is lol

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Wasn't sure this merited its own thread, but if we're going to have to endure an entire primary of liberals and "moderates" lauding how nice Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Chris Sununu, and so forth are compared to Trump...just kill me now. Tim Scott couldn't name a single policy that he differs from Donald Trump on, and perhaps the only thing that makes him different from any standard Trump Republican is that he has talked about his issues being racially profiled by police (despite supporting legislation to racially profile suspected illegal immigrants...) which is something that Republicans do not believe is possible. He is DOA, sure, but Democrats are going to unwittingly usher in a new era of Republican extremism that is just nicer on its face, not any less extreme in practice. It's sickening. "Republicans, before Trump" were not good. You know who the pre-Trump Republicans were? War criminals, corporate shills, and homophobes. That is not better than Trump. It is just a different kind of bad.

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1660673616747405313?s=20

The only Republican considering running who would not be either Trump or Trumpian is Will Hurd. Even self proclaimed anti Trump Chris Christie is Trumpian.

Lmao Tim Scott, the globalist pro-amnesty free trader neocon is Trumpian???

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Wasn't sure this merited its own thread, but if we're going to have to endure an entire primary of liberals and "moderates" lauding how nice Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Chris Sununu, and so forth are compared to Trump...just kill me now. Tim Scott couldn't name a single policy that he differs from Donald Trump on, and perhaps the only thing that makes him different from any standard Trump Republican is that he has talked about his issues being racially profiled by police (despite supporting legislation to racially profile suspected illegal immigrants...) which is something that Republicans do not believe is possible. He is DOA, sure, but Democrats are going to unwittingly usher in a new era of Republican extremism that is just nicer on its face, not any less extreme in practice. It's sickening. "Republicans, before Trump" were not good. You know who the pre-Trump Republicans were? War criminals, corporate shills, and homophobes. That is not better than Trump. It is just a different kind of bad.

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1660673616747405313?s=20

The only Republican considering running who would not be either Trump or Trumpian is Will Hurd. Even self proclaimed anti Trump Chris Christie is Trumpian.

Lmao Tim Scott, the globalist pro-amnesty free trader neocon is Trumpian???

Other than pro-amnesty (which I was not aware Scott is) Trump was much more of a mixed bag on all these things while President. Despite the attempts to remake the Trump Administration into some kind of ideologically consistent whole, it was extremely erratic. But, the Trump Administration was frequently pro free trade and often neocon, and certainly otherwise mostly pro corporate with both tax cuts and deregulation.

On social issues, I don't believe Trump's campaign views and Scott's differ in the slightest.

Most importantly, Scott is pro insurrection.

Tim Scott voted to certify the election results and has been outspoken about the election being fair since 2020.

Also, Trumpism isn't about the policies enacted while Trump was in office, it's about Trump's rhetoric.

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Wasn't sure this merited its own thread, but if we're going to have to endure an entire primary of liberals and "moderates" lauding how nice Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Chris Sununu, and so forth are compared to Trump...just kill me now. Tim Scott couldn't name a single policy that he differs from Donald Trump on, and perhaps the only thing that makes him different from any standard Trump Republican is that he has talked about his issues being racially profiled by police (despite supporting legislation to racially profile suspected illegal immigrants...) which is something that Republicans do not believe is possible. He is DOA, sure, but Democrats are going to unwittingly usher in a new era of Republican extremism that is just nicer on its face, not any less extreme in practice. It's sickening. "Republicans, before Trump" were not good. You know who the pre-Trump Republicans were? War criminals, corporate shills, and homophobes. That is not better than Trump. It is just a different kind of bad.

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1660673616747405313?s=20

The only Republican considering running who would not be either Trump or Trumpian is Will Hurd. Even self proclaimed anti Trump Chris Christie is Trumpian.

Lmao Tim Scott, the globalist pro-amnesty free trader neocon is Trumpian???

Other than pro-amnesty (which I was not aware Scott is) Trump was much more of a mixed bag on all these things while President. Despite the attempts to remake the Trump Administration into some kind of ideologically consistent whole, it was extremely erratic. But, the Trump Administration was frequently pro free trade and often neocon, and certainly otherwise mostly pro corporate with both tax cuts and deregulation.

On social issues, I don't believe Trump's campaign views and Scott's differ in the slightest.

Most importantly, Scott is pro insurrection.

Tim Scott voted to certify the election results and has been outspoken about the election being fair since 2020.

Also, Trumpism isn't about the policies enacted while Trump was in office, it's about Trump's rhetoric.

Tim Scott also voted to acquit Trump for January 6 (which, if along with a subsequent vote would have prevented Trump from being able to run again) and voted to block the January 6 commission. He's pro insurrection.

Trumpian is being similar to Trump rhetorically or to his way of acting politically or to his policies, such as they are. Trying to have it both ways, as you and I show Scott tried to do with January 6, is very Trumpian.

Smoothbrained post

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ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson
Scott
Elder


NOT IN YET, BUT DEFINITELY IN:

Pence
DeSantis
Christie


MAYBE:
Sununu
Bolton
Suarez
Burgum
Youngkin

Youngkin returns to the list. Bugrum remains at Maybe but could move up soon, ditto Suarez and Sununu. List will look quite different next week if Pence, Christie, and DeSantis all join as expected.



I know some people run just to boost publicity, but Youngkin seeming to be dipping his toes at getting back in after already saying he was out for good is wild to me.

Also who is Bugrum for? Who looks at a field like this and goes "You know what we're missing? The Governor of North Dakota." The more of these clowns run, the more Trump's just gonna say "There's no point for me to be on a stage with all these has-beens and never-weres" and just skip the debates.

You forgot Rand Paul and Ted Cruz

They're not running.

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Why is Burgum announcing on the same day as the former VP?

Doesn't make any sense to me: it just means you have less publicity and Burgum doesn't have the luxury of high name recognition. Why isn't he waiting for another week or month?

Because he's not running for President, he's running for a cabinet position.

I could see him being picked for Energy, what with all the oil and nukes in his state

Trump isn't gonna pick an establishment "pro-democracy" GOP politician who ran against him for ANY position in government (sorry Tim Scott!) so my guess is if that is true (which I doubt) then he would be gunning for a DeSantis cabinet position. Honestly that doesn't make his political skills seem much better.

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I like Suarez, but he surely knows he can't win. I assume this is probably a brand-building campaign that he can try to leverage into a run for Governor down the road.

That or a cabinet position.

A cabinet position of which candidate? He voted against DeSantis and Trump

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I like Suarez, but he surely knows he can't win. I assume this is probably a brand-building campaign that he can try to leverage into a run for Governor down the road.

That or a cabinet position.

Hey, it worked out for Buttigieg. He got a cabinet position and two best selling books out of his run and his city was four times smaller than Miami. Of course Suarez is way less impressive than Pete was at least for the set of voters he needs.

Also the difference is Biden and Buttigieg didn't have irreconcilable differences. Trump is never gonna hire a never-Trumper like Suarez.

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Where does Hurd get the money from to run?

90% of big money comes from never-Trump Republicans.

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Running:

Burgum
Castro
Christie
DeSantis
Elder
Haley
Hurd
Hutchinson
Johnson
Laffey
Pence
Ramaswamy
Scott
Stapleton
Suarez
Trump

Decision expected by Friday:

Rogers

Potential candidates:

Abbott
Bolton
Kemp
Noem
Perry
Youngkin

Source: Wikipedia

Noem and Abbott aren't running and have shown no interest in running.

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If President Biden was to show actual signs of (new real) health problems, who do you think would be the first to get into the Democratic primaries to challenge Biden? Kind of like when Senator Eugene McCarthy challenged President Lyndon Johnson in 1968.

My guess is it would be some former U.S House member who has no plan to get back into electoral politics so doesn't mind annoying the Democratic establishment, but I can't think of a name other than maybe Stephanie Murphy.

Ro Khanna

I wish he would run. He's the only current elected Democrat I'd vote for over Trump.

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Would Kasich be a good candidate for No Labels or is he not centrist enough for that

Kasich is pretty much a GOP foot soldier on every topic besides rhetoric and tone.

A bush-era Republican maybe. A pro-war-in-Europe, pro-free-trade, anti-social-security, pro-immigration person is not a true Republican today, no matter their opinions on abortion, judges or taxes.

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I think it’s fair to call Kasich a standard pre-Trump non-Tea Party Republican with rhetorical and tonal differences only. He’s no Jon Huntsman:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/john-kasich-a-jeb-bush-in-jon-huntsman-clothing/

https://web.archive.org/web/20151213175157/http://plunderbund.com/2015/07/28/john-kasich-is-not-the-jon-huntsman-of-2016/

Though these days, it’s also fair to say that policy distinctions don’t matter, because isn’t Liz Cheney of all people the principled NeverTrumper Republican icon with Democrat admirers? Come to think of it couldn’t she headline No Labels?

Huntsman is no better than Kasich. They both belong in the same boat. Come to think of it, Kasich spoke at the 2020 DNC while Huntsman wore a MAGA hat in an ad for governor.

To be fair, I think Huntsman is more moderate on policy, but is less ardently anti-Trump than Kasich.

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Manchin ‘thinking seriously’ about leaving Democratic Party

I suspect this would be in preparation for a run with No Labels.

I just truly don’t understand No Labels. Joe Biden isn’t Bernie Sanders for crying out loud. And with the people they might get to run, it would be three white guys with a combined age of well over 200. Who do they appeal to? Beltway people, McMullin voters?

I actually think this is a ploy for his Senate run. He'll run as a McMullin-like "independent" to try and get votes from people who hate Democrats.

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So how many "establishment coup/moderate insurgency" potential candidacies are there?

Democratic:

- Dean Philips making noises but not actually running

- Perpetual rumors of party insiders subbing in Gavin Newsom

Republican:

- Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum, Will Hurd, etc., outsider moderate campaigns

- Donors talking about Youngkin or Kemp

Other:

- No Labels

- Admiral McRaven namedrop out of nowhere

Any others I'm missing?

I wouldn't call Hutchinson (or potentially Youngkin or Kemp) outsider moderate campaigns, they're very much running as insiders. Hurd and Christie are running as outsider moderates ig.