Ethiopia sends troops into the Tigray Reigon

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder why the Oromo separatists aren’t taking advantage of the situation already?

At least as long as their man Abiy is in charge, why would there be any politically significant Oromo separatists?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

Interesting in a Chinese sense.
How bad could it get for Eritrean elites in this scenario? What happens to common people there?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

Interesting in a Chinese sense.
How bad could it get for Eritrean elites in this scenario? What happens to common people there?

I don't expect Tigrayan forces to be better behaved rampaging through Ethiopia than I did Eritrea rampaging through Tigraynia

Is an annexation of Eritrea on the cards?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would anyone stop them if they were to retake Eritrea? If they are able to defeat Ethiopia's central government, would Eritrea have any chance at all?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oh, how the wind can change direction...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who is better placed here at this point?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I spoke with an Ethiopian exchange student last semester and the ethnic mistrust runs deep, even among educated youth like him. He is Oromo and from Addis Ababa area for reference and borderline denied what is happening in Tigray. Very interesting to hear, I do wonder where he is now.

What do you mean by "borderline denied"?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It has been said that TPLF is the Prussia of the Horn of Africa. Well, even the Prussians could not have survived unscathed if the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg hadn't happened. In the same way, the TPLF being surrounded is bad for them. The trendlines are quite troubling...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It has been said that TPLF is the Prussia of the Horn of Africa. Well, even the Prussians could not have survived unscathed if the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg hadn't happened. In the same way, the TPLF being surrounded is bad for them. The trendlines are quite troubling...

The current situation is similar to Prussia in 1761 with forces on all sides moving in.  Only the death of Russia's Elizabeth in early 1762 and installing of pro-Prussia Peter III saved Frederick the Great.

Considering the power that Tigray wielded over the rest of the country for decades until recently, the attitudes of the rest of Ethiopia are probably not too different to Napoleon's enemies post-Leipzig - "they have to go, and we don't care how much it costs us".
It's a dangerous combo for the TPLF, since the unity of their enemies and possible/potential rivals against them has been key in reversing the progress they once had and now threatens them on an increasingly terminal level.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The next flashpoint would be Adwa which is east of Aksum.  It is a road junction whose capture would make it easier for EPLF to send in supplies which means TPLF is likely to try to contest it.

Wow. I spoke too soon.  It seems that EPLD-ENDF just captured Adwa.

When I hear Adwa I think of the battle in 1896. Certainly it's a place with a lot of history.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The next flashpoint would be Adwa which is east of Aksum.  It is a road junction whose capture would make it easier for EPLF to send in supplies which means TPLF is likely to try to contest it.

Wow. I spoke too soon.  It seems that EPLD-ENDF just captured Adwa.

When I hear Adwa I think of the battle in 1896. Certainly it's a place with a lot of history.

You are referencing the war Italy fought to conquer and then colonize the Ethiopian kingdom, presumably.  Which it lost, and then tried again in the 1930s under Benito Mussolini, where again it failed.  

Yes, that war in 1896 was the first time a European power was unambiguously defeated by an African one during the Age of Imperialism. The Italians were so cartoonishly incompetent and overconfident in that war. Unfortunately, they won the second time, but it was a short-lived victory. Adwa looks like an important crossroads kind of place, strategically located; I guess it shouldn't be surprising it and the vicinity would be the host of multiple important battles.