Ethiopia sends troops into the Tigray Reigon

[PSOL]

So instead of securing the border with Sudan, the TPLF and friends are making a quick dash for Addis Ababa and are currently winning.

Abiy Ahmed is one of the biggest flops in modern African leadership history.

[jaichind]

There are claims that TPLF are in Kombolcha and Dessie. If so the is very bad news for the Addis Ababa regime because these cities are in the road juncture between the port of Djibouti and Addis Ababa and could cut off supplies into Addis Ababa.  I suspect if true that the Addis Ababa regime will throw everything into driving TPLF back.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1455606907197132805

[Zinneke]

Question is what does the TPLF do if it does make it to Addis. They won't go for another jab at governing the country, their credit has expired, and really the key driver of that was Zenawi who wanted the "developmental state".

[PSOL]

Question is what does the TPLF do if it does make it to Addis. They won't go for another jab at governing the country, their credit has expired, and really the key driver of that was Zenawi who wanted the "developmental state".

Well, I expect them to get wasted on fine Ethiopian Beers for a good week.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours going around that the capital may be about to fall.

[jaichind]

Wow.  A possible rerun of 1991.  Tigray is truly the Prussia of the Horn of Africa.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

[PSOL]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

Interesting in a Chinese sense.
How bad could it get for Eritrean elites in this scenario? What happens to common people there?

[PSOL]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

Interesting in a Chinese sense.
How bad could it get for Eritrean elites in this scenario? What happens to common people there?

I don't expect Tigrayan forces to be better behaved rampaging through Ethiopia than I did Eritrea rampaging through Tigraynia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

Interesting in a Chinese sense.
How bad could it get for Eritrean elites in this scenario? What happens to common people there?

I don't expect Tigrayan forces to be better behaved rampaging through Ethiopia than I did Eritrea rampaging through Tigraynia

Is an annexation of Eritrea on the cards?

[jaichind]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

I doubt TPLF and their OLA allies have the ambition to completely take over Ethiopia completely like in 1991.  I think their plan is to stop outside Addis Ababa and then try to work out a deal for autonomy or even independence for Tigray.  I agree after that they might try to exact some revenge for what Eritrean forces did during their occupation of Northern Tigray last year and earlier this year.  I suspect those operations will be limited as well.  I am not sure how much material basis Tigray has to continue fighting like this.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Strong echoes of Rwanda and the rise of Kagame

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

Interesting in a Chinese sense.
How bad could it get for Eritrean elites in this scenario?

Too soon to tell.

What happens to common people there?

Nothing good.

[PSOL]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

I doubt TPLF and their OLA allies have the ambition to completely take over Ethiopia completely like in 1991.  I think their plan is to stop outside Addis Ababa and then try to work out a deal for autonomy or even independence for Tigray.  I agree after that they might try to exact some revenge for what Eritrean forces did during their occupation of Northern Tigray last year and earlier this year.  I suspect those operations will be limited as well.  I am not sure how much material basis Tigray has to continue fighting like this.

I seriously doubt that they wouldn’t try and retake Eritrea for revenge and to finally get some peace of mind. The very existence of Eritrea will forever be an existential threat for them.

[Zinneke]

Wow.  A possible rerun of 1991.  Tigray is truly the Prussia of the Horn of Africa.

Well, 1991 was genuine military ingenuity from Zenawi. In this case they are reaping the rewards of Zenawi's long term thinking again. After 2005 all non-Tigray military commanders in the Ethiopian army were purged, main military bases were moved up to Tigray (so they launched the 5 November attack reposessing a hell a lot of heavy weaponry), and general looting, torture and repression for 20 years. Add to that the population probably hid their own weapons caches for when the ''Big One"" arrived too.  

Tigrayans and the TPLF have been prepping this conflict for years. And part of that was ensuring the Ethiopian central government would be incompetent without them.

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

Interesting in a Chinese sense.
How bad could it get for Eritrean elites in this scenario? What happens to common people there?

I don't expect Tigrayan forces to be better behaved rampaging through Ethiopia than I did Eritrea rampaging through Tigraynia

So far they have treated civilian populaces in Ethiopia better than the wannabe dictator Abiy Ahmed did to them. But that doesn't mean much. It seems like some pro-TPLF voices online have forgotten everything that happened before Abiy came to power.

[CumbrianLefty]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

I doubt TPLF and their OLA allies have the ambition to completely take over Ethiopia completely like in 1991.  I think their plan is to stop outside Addis Ababa and then try to work out a deal for autonomy or even independence for Tigray.  I agree after that they might try to exact some revenge for what Eritrean forces did during their occupation of Northern Tigray last year and earlier this year.  I suspect those operations will be limited as well.  I am not sure how much material basis Tigray has to continue fighting like this.

I seriously doubt that they wouldn’t try and retake Eritrea for revenge and to finally get some peace of mind. The very existence of Eritrea will forever be an existential threat for them.

That is surely unsustainable, though. Eritrean people may not all like their government (and with good reason) but almost none think it is a good idea to become part of Ethiopia again.

[Zinneke]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

I doubt TPLF and their OLA allies have the ambition to completely take over Ethiopia completely like in 1991.  I think their plan is to stop outside Addis Ababa and then try to work out a deal for autonomy or even independence for Tigray.  I agree after that they might try to exact some revenge for what Eritrean forces did during their occupation of Northern Tigray last year and earlier this year.  I suspect those operations will be limited as well.  I am not sure how much material basis Tigray has to continue fighting like this.

I seriously doubt that they wouldn’t try and retake Eritrea for revenge and to finally get some peace of mind. The very existence of Eritrea will forever be an existential threat for them.

That is surely unsaustainable, though. Eritrean people may not all like their government (and with good reason) but almost none think it is a good idea to become part of Ethiopia again.

I imagine some would rather live under Greater Tigray than Issayas though.

[StateBoiler]

Was unaware of this, but looking at a map, if Tigray does desire independence, they require access to sea for longer-term sustainability, which means Eritrea.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would anyone stop them if they were to retake Eritrea? If they are able to defeat Ethiopia's central government, would Eritrea have any chance at all?

[PSOL]

Would anyone stop them if they were to retake Eritrea? If they are able to defeat Ethiopia's central government, would Eritrea have any chance at all?

Well, the current Eritrean government did win out over its own civil war when simultaneously they were fending off an Ethiopian invasion, and they did win the 2003 war and achieve favorable K/D ratios since.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Would anyone stop them if they were to retake Eritrea? If they are able to defeat Ethiopia's central government, would Eritrea have any chance at all?

Well, the current Eritrean government did win out over its own civil war when simultaneously they were fending off an Ethiopian invasion, and they did win the 2003 war and achieve favorable K/D ratios since.

Plus the Eritreans were the ones doing most of the dirty work and/or heavy lifting back during the earlier stages of the current conflict when it looked like Abiy and Isaias had the upper hand.

[2952-0-0]

We're now at the "leader who is holed up in the capital is making a desperate call to arms, as the UN expresses 'deep concern', and the rebels announce a totally-not-fractious alliance" stage.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/6/ethiopias-abiy-urges-sacrifices-as-us-orders-staff-withdrawal

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/5/un-security-council-calls-for-an-end-to-ethiopia-hostilities

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html

[jaichind]

While it is totally possible that we will see a rapid collapse of the Addis Ababa regime like Kabul back in the summer, the terrine the TPLF will now have to cross to reach Addis Ababa is not as favorable.  Up until now, the battles between ENDF and TPLF have been engaged in are in hilly and mountainous areas of Tigray and Eastern Amhara.  For TPLF to now reach  Addis Ababa they will not have to cross flat terrain where the mechanized forces of ENDF will have a firepower advantage.  This is part of the reason why Western Tigray is still in the hands of ENDF and Amhara militias even as this cuts TPLF from Sudan.  After retaking Mekelle in the Summer TPLF has focused on moving into Eastern Amhara as opposed to Western Tigray partly because that is the route to Addis Ababa but also because the terrain there favors their style of fighting.   It is totally possible the morale breaks in ENDF and the Amhara militias but at least now the terrine favors them if they are willing to fight.