Ethiopia sends troops into the Tigray Reigon

[It’s so Joever]

https://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00081616.html

Humanitarian truce has been called. Let’s see how long it lasts…

[Agonized-Statism]

Hoping for a lasting peace. How come the African Union hasn't taken a leadership role here when they regularly intervene in Sudan and Somalia?

[It’s so Joever]

Hoping for a lasting peace. How come the African Union hasn't taken a leadership role here when they regularly intervene in Sudan and Somalia?

Ethiopia has WAY too much influence in the AU to let that happen.

[Agonized-Statism]

Hoping for a lasting peace. How come the African Union hasn't taken a leadership role here when they regularly intervene in Sudan and Somalia?

Ethiopia has WAY too much influence in the AU to let that happen.

Right, but wouldn't it be in the government's interest to get the AU involved in some way on their side?

[PSOL]

Well, former allies are getting shafted by the Ethiopian government.

[jaichind]

ENDF bans all reporting on its movement and activities. Those who report will face criminal charges.

It seems the ENDF will start a major offensive against the TPLF shattering the de facto ceasefire that has been in place for the last few months.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who is better placed here at this point?

[jaichind]

Who is better placed here at this point?

TPLF says that ENDF has started the attack while ENDF says nothing.  Given this, it does seem ENDF most likely has the upper hand and feels that it can launch an attack that can expand its negotiation position.  It would make sense that ENDF is better placed as TPLF in Eastern Tigray has been blocked off from all supplies for months and must have weakened relative to ENDF last few months. 

Even though the fighting is now mostly in the Afar region I suspect the real battle will be in Western Tigray where TPLF will try to recapture Western Tigary from ENDF, EPLF, and pro-ENDF Amhara militias to try to break the blockade so they can get supplies from pro-TPLA Sudan.  Failure to do so will continue the relative weakening of TPLF.

[jaichind]

It seems the first offensive since the start of fighting has TPLF moving south from Tigray and closing in on Kobo.  Even if they capture the town it is not clear how that helps the TPLF situation of being cut off from supplies with enemy forces on all 4 sides of their territory. 

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/eritrea-calls-civilians-ethiopia-tensions-133314590.html

"Eritrea's mass mobilisation amid Ethiopia civil war"

Looks like a significant escalation from Eritrea is coming to hit out at TPLF.

[jaichind]

ENDF seems to be launching an offensive with Afar militias toward capturing Wollo which is between the Tigray capital Mekele and the Northern part of the Tigray front where TPLF is facing off against Eritrea's EPLF.  The ENDF strategy seems to be to defend Western Tigray against TPLF and pin down TPLF in the Southern Tigray front while trying to hit Tigray in its Eastern Front.

[It’s so Joever]

I spoke with an Ethiopian exchange student last semester and the ethnic mistrust runs deep, even among educated youth like him. He is Oromo and from Addis Ababa area for reference and borderline denied what is happening in Tigray. Very interesting to hear, I do wonder where he is now.

[Logical]

So many people fighting yet it is almost impossible to get reliable and unbiased news from the region.
https://twitter.com/_hudsonc/status/1579572443941076992

[jaichind]

ENDF is on an offensive to capture Shire (also known as Inda Selassie) in Central Tigray.  The city is a key transportation hub and now has a lot of Tigray refugees gathered there (I think over 600K).  Some sources claim that ENDF is close to capturing it.  It was captured in the lENDF offensive in late 2020 but was recaptured by TPLF in the June 2021 counteroffensive.

[jaichind]

It seems the ENDF captured the town of Waja in Southern Tigray.  If so this means the TPLF offensive Southward beyond Southern Tigary earlier this year has been mostly turned back.  Still on this part of the front, the front seems to be fairly static with very small shifts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I spoke with an Ethiopian exchange student last semester and the ethnic mistrust runs deep, even among educated youth like him. He is Oromo and from Addis Ababa area for reference and borderline denied what is happening in Tigray. Very interesting to hear, I do wonder where he is now.

What do you mean by "borderline denied"?

[It’s so Joever]

I spoke with an Ethiopian exchange student last semester and the ethnic mistrust runs deep, even among educated youth like him. He is Oromo and from Addis Ababa area for reference and borderline denied what is happening in Tigray. Very interesting to hear, I do wonder where he is now.

What do you mean by "borderline denied"?

“Oh its not at all as bad as Western media says, and besides the Tigrayans are destabilizing the country!”

[jaichind]

Ethiopian government rejects calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities, making it clear that it intends to take control of the entire Tigray region

[jaichind]

It seems ENDF is getting close to Korem in Southern Tigray with TPLF defenses collapsing  If Korem falls to ENDF, they have already advanced 1/5 of the way from the Tigray border to Mekele.

If ENDF can make another deep advance into Tigray that is a testament to their version of Winfield Scott's anaconda strategy they employed most of 2022.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tigray-forces-concede-loss-large-town-ethiopian-army-2022-10-18/

"Tigray forces concede loss of large town to Ethiopian army"

ENDF-EPLF captured Shire in Central Tigray.  This mostly ends any chances of a TPLF pushing the West to establish supply routes to pro-Tigrat Sudan which were remote anyawy.

Now TPLF faces pressure on all 4 sides.  ENDF-EPLF is pushing east from Central Tigray.  ENDF is pushing North from Southern Tigray ENDF-Afar militias are pushing from the West to cut Southern Tigray from Mekele.  And EPLF has a large force in the North that is not totally engaged yet but could be in a situation of an all-out ENDF push toward Mekele.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It has been said that TPLF is the Prussia of the Horn of Africa. Well, even the Prussians could not have survived unscathed if the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg hadn't happened. In the same way, the TPLF being surrounded is bad for them. The trendlines are quite troubling...

[jaichind]

It has been said that TPLF is the Prussia of the Horn of Africa. Well, even the Prussians could not have survived unscathed if the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg hadn't happened. In the same way, the TPLF being surrounded is bad for them. The trendlines are quite troubling...

The current situation is similar to Prussia in 1761 with forces on all sides moving in.  Only the death of Russia's Elizabeth in early 1762 and installing of pro-Prussia Peter III saved Frederick the Great.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It has been said that TPLF is the Prussia of the Horn of Africa. Well, even the Prussians could not have survived unscathed if the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg hadn't happened. In the same way, the TPLF being surrounded is bad for them. The trendlines are quite troubling...

The current situation is similar to Prussia in 1761 with forces on all sides moving in.  Only the death of Russia's Elizabeth in early 1762 and installing of pro-Prussia Peter III saved Frederick the Great.

Considering the power that Tigray wielded over the rest of the country for decades until recently, the attitudes of the rest of Ethiopia are probably not too different to Napoleon's enemies post-Leipzig - "they have to go, and we don't care how much it costs us".
It's a dangerous combo for the TPLF, since the unity of their enemies and possible/potential rivals against them has been key in reversing the progress they once had and now threatens them on an increasingly terminal level.

[jaichind]

The pattern so far is that ENDF dees well in the Winter months while TPLF does well in the Summer months.  The reason is clear: Air power.  ENDF dominates the skies which means that ENDF will have the upper hand in the Winter due to the lack of foliage which will give TPLF camouflage cover.

[jaichind]

The upcoming ENDF strategy should be what we Chinese call 關門打狗 (Close the door and then attack the dog) which is really isolating the enemy into a region that is all within your zone of control and then slowly move in for the kill.  This is will be part II of Winfield Scott's Anaconda Plan.

It seems ENDF has mostly adopted my proposed strategy from 10 months ago.  They had a bunch of small operations but mostly focused on starving TPLF of resources. Now they seem to be moving in slowly for the kill.  Not clear if TPLF is sufficiently weak enough not to spring some surprises on the ENDF-EPLF offensives.