Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +3 in PA, +5 in WI

[RINO Tom]

Just got back from a family vacation in Door County, and I thought I would share my anecdotal recon, lol.  First of all, I could not believe how many yard signs there were ... I didn't really know people did that anywhere anymore.  For those who don't know, Door County is a peninsula in NE Wisconsin that is a very popular tourist destination, especially for people from Illinois (FIB for life!).  Surprisingly, it has voted for the winning candidate in every election since 1996.  Here is how it has voted since 2000:

2016: 48.8% Trump, 45.6% Clinton
2012: 53.0% Obama, 46.0% Romney
2008: 58.0% Obama, 40.7% Romney
2004: 50.9% Bush, 47.8% Kerry
2000: 51.3% Bush, 43.1% Gore

Looking at a precinct map for 2016, it looks like the county's biggest city (Sturgeon Bay) went for Clinton by single digits, the rural areas were for Trump by about 7-8% and the tourist towns up north went for Clinton by about 10% on average ... not sure how the math worked out for Trump to win, but oh well.

Anyway, I saw about 70-30% Trump signs until we got up to Egg Harbor, and then it was about 50/50.  I would imagine this is somewhere Biden would win back, if I had to guess, though.

[jd7171]

I think the key to PA is the Western part of the state. Trump is going to lose ground in the eastern suburbs. If Trump matches his total out here then he can keep it close. But if he loses ground then you get a Biden win of about 6-8 points. From what I can tell here on the ground is that he has lost some ground how much I don't know.  

What makes you say he's losing ground in the west?

Have you noticed any positive signs for Biden in that part of the state?

Where I live there were no Clinton signs at all. Trump signs were everywhere. Fast forward to today and while Trump still dominates with signs, there are two distinct differences:

1. Several houses that had Trump signs before don't have anything.
2. Biden signs have popped up in the area. With specifically 7 in my town.

[jd7171]

I think the key to PA is the Western part of the state. Trump is going to lose ground in the eastern suburbs. If Trump matches his total out here then he can keep it close. But if he loses ground then you get a Biden win of about 6-8 points. From what I can tell here on the ground is that he has lost some ground how much I don't know.  

Hey welcome to the forum, and thanks for sharing!
Always good to get some perspective from the locals.

Thanks! I'll try to share my thoughts and provide some insight about the area I live in.

[tagimaucia]

As someone who doesn't know much about rural geography of the rust belt / northern US-- are some meaningful number of Pennsylvania rural whites just culturally different than rural whites in places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, etc. (are they closer to Appalachians or folks in, say, rural West Virginia or are they more likely to be evangelical/religious or culturally conservative)?  

PA rural whites seem to really not be moving away from Trump as much as they are in some other northern states.

[Dr. Arch]

Just got back from a family vacation in Door County, and I thought I would share my anecdotal recon, lol.  First of all, I could not believe how many yard signs there were ... I didn't really know people did that anywhere anymore.  For those who don't know, Door County is a peninsula in NE Wisconsin that is a very popular tourist destination, especially for people from Illinois (FIB for life!).  Surprisingly, it has voted for the winning candidate in every election since 1996.  Here is how it has voted since 2000:

2016: 48.8% Trump, 45.6% Clinton
2012: 53.0% Obama, 46.0% Romney
2008: 58.0% Obama, 40.7% Romney
2004: 50.9% Bush, 47.8% Kerry
2000: 51.3% Bush, 43.1% Gore

Looking at a precinct map for 2016, it looks like the county's biggest city (Sturgeon Bay) went for Clinton by single digits, the rural areas were for Trump by about 7-8% and the tourist towns up north went for Clinton by about 10% on average ... not sure how the math worked out for Trump to win, but oh well.

Anyway, I saw about 70-30% Trump signs until we got up to Egg Harbor, and then it was about 50/50.  I would imagine this is somewhere Biden would win back, if I had to guess, though.

FIB!!!