Official North Carolina Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Alcon]

By the by, expect a possible reverse-California here.  Since Obama seems to be smashing among early voters and closer among poll voters, the exit polls might look relatively pessimistic for him.  Because of the type of people who respond to exit polls (i.e., younger people), that could manifest itself in an actually realistic result for once.  That is, assuming the polls are right.

[Alcon]

Have fun Sam.  You'll be missed!

...now I won't have anyone to mindlessly parrot

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THE ECONOMY?!?!

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Reverend Wright:

Not important: 50%
Important: 48%

(Obama: Uh-oh?)

[Alcon]

Reverend Wright:

Not important: 50%
Important: 48%

(Obama: Uh-oh?)

IN or NC?

NC.  IN was 49-48 unimportant

[Alcon]

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

Not at all.  Considering over 40% on the early voters were black, and 1/3 of polling-day ones are, that accounts for a probable black turnout of 35% or 36% -- about what I was expecting, and slightly higher than what most of the pundits and even pollsters were.

There's no depressed white rural turnout, but black turnout is better than it has been for a few primaries, looks like.  It all comes down to the breakdown of the white swing voters.

If these numbers hold up (they may not) a surprise Clinton win is likely a mathematical impossibility.

[Alcon]

In North Carolina, Clinton voters would go 45-38 Obama.  Not much help to the topline but interesting.

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

33% is lower than expected if that is the final number. Hillary can come within 5 if she wins 65% of the white vote.

Again, early voters were much more black.  You must factor them in.

[Alcon]

70-12 of Obama voters would support Clinton

You know, I read your post, but I'm curious.  North Carolina is able to track who votes by race or they require you to list your race when you register.  I know that NY (or Texas) doesn't do this.

North Carolina asks race upon registration, and apparently tracks returned ballots that way, and then breaks them down by registration and party.

So if you're an unaffiliated black male, and the only one in your precinct, what party ballot you cast is public information.

Delightful for us, kind of creepy.

[Alcon]

They were likely included into the exit polls, just like they have been in every state.

Uh...no?  I doubt that.  They didn't do it in California, and it showed.

They usually only do that with Washington and Oregon because the vast majority of votes there are VBM.  And if they do it, it's all a phone poll.

I don't see what's led you to believe early voters are included in exit polls.

[Alcon]

Exit polls that came out before the results came in showed Hillary winning California by close to double digits. And that is ultimately by how much she won California.

Obama tends to overperform in exit polls because older voters are less likely to respond to them, because they're now generally conducted by college students.

The early California exits had Clinton up about 12, IIRC, which is notably more than the 8 she got.

And again, please show me a source that substantiates your claim that early voters are measured in exit polls (how?  By mashing phone interviews into exit poll interviews?).

[Alcon]

Blacks: 91-6 Obama

[Alcon]

But that would mean that Clinton, in fact, was understated in the exit

Well...no...but forget this.  My train of thought has totally derailed.  This is an excessively complicated explanation proving that exit polls don't include early voters, when really I should just be demanding proof that they do. 

[Alcon]

Huffington Post has a leak of total numbers:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Clinton +5 in IN
Obama +12 in NC

Is that the same exit poll?  If it is, like 83%+ of Indiana voters would have to have said they have been directly affected by the recession.

Another exit poll allegedly has Obama +1 in Indiana.  Alleged exit polls!  God bless this country.

[Alcon]

Huffington Post has a leak of total numbers:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Clinton +5 in IN
Obama +12 in NC

Is that the same exit poll?

How should I know?  Do I look like I work for HuffPo? 

Yes, you look like the head of their Rhetorical Question Answering Division (RQAD). 

[Alcon]

Obama +8 among economy voters

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CNN projects North Carolina for Obama

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Exit poll: Obama +14

54.9-41.1

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59-36 Clinton among whites
Whites are 63%
Poll votes only - no early votes

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Are these early votes?

Probably.

Youch.

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Chapel Hill early votes 77-22 Obama

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Any reason why Watauga with 30% reporting is, thus far, for Obama (60% to 39%)? Is it full of rich white liberals?

Dave

Appalachian State University?  Probably that and more.

[Alcon]

Now at 36%, Obama leading by 20.  It will possibly be closer than expected.

...Didn't you predict Obama +4?

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Sorry, Chris, my bad