UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Wiswylfen]

Strange number of Twitter cultists shouting about libel and exciting themselves with talk of legal action. Not like anything's untrue. The "it was a one-off mistake!" excuses are very funny in hindsight.

The leadership campaign has quite seriously lowered my opinion of the British right, who I used to think would have the good sense to reject Truss. Not only are most of them little more than the 'intolerant liberals' they decry their enemies as, the social conservatives among them have thrown themselves into enthusiastic support of someone who left the Lib Dems because they weren't approved as a candidate fast enough.

[Wiswylfen]

...someone who left the Lib Dems because they weren't approved as a candidate fast enough.

Oh is that why she defected when she did? I had always wondered what on Earth was behind that: not many people joined the Conservative Party after being a member of a different party in 1996 of all years!

The story as I heard it was that the panel told her to make a few improvements and come back, and shortly afterwards she left. Not impossible she could've ended up MP for Leeds North West and (completely ignoring all the other changes it would have caused) in the place of Jo Swinson come 2019, thinking about it.

[Wiswylfen]

You know, in the olden days the death of a monarch would automatically trigger a general election. The Conservatives have to be glad this isn't still the case.

When was the law changed on this?

1867, Disraeli's Second Reform Act.

[Wiswylfen]

So, if Truss is the Kim Campbell in this hilarious scenario, who would the Jean Charest and Elsie Wayne be?

Sunak and Ben Houchen running for and winning a Tees seat off the back of local kudos.

About that...

[Wiswylfen]

Absolutely fascinating article.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1575756143401394176

The Tories, overnight, became the most economically right wing party in the developed world, despite their own voters being marginally left wing (by international comparison)

They have set sail away from their own voters.

"The chart shows the Tories are the most economically right-wing major party relative to their *country's centre* according to political scientists." (the full explanation, as hinted at with "by international comparison", for anyone wondering) Still quite funny that Labour is placed to the right of Fidesz: The Rt. Hon. Victor Michael Borrowman MP (Lab., Winchester).

[Wiswylfen]

More polling puts Labour at 50% or above:

Omnisis: (never heard of them before TBH)

55% Labour
23% Tories

PeoplePolling:

50% Labour
20% Tories

They're new to political polling.

[Wiswylfen]

For our Labour people, was Lee Anderson always this right wing when in Labour or has he got the zeal of a convert?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-says-economy-only-28136853

I cannot comment specifically on Lee Anderson- but his type really wouldn't be that unique among local councillors especially in areas such as Ashfield where Labour were virtually the only meal ticket & where the opposition were the Lib Dems (and later an independent residents group)

There use to be a breed of CLP activists & local councillors in the North-East who considered the Conservatives soft on social issues while still being considered as being on the 'left' of Labour.

Largely Catholic in origin and by no means gone: Mary Glindon is MP for North Tyneside, though not on the left.

[Wiswylfen]

Did not expect to end up discussing anime and giving manga recs when I started campaigning for Labour.

[Wiswylfen]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

Wasn't he widely thought to be a Truss supporter, even if he never went public on his successor?

Though even then its quite possibly overridden by his "apres moi, le deluge" mentality.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1549782798608785408

[Wiswylfen]

A couple of other selected highlights from the 1922:

• MP leaving 1922 room after about 30 mins of PM, one quips to hacks through gritted teeth: ‘I’m going to get drunk.’
• Other MPs monosyllabic. Speech was ‘great’ ‘fine’. One helpfully deadpans ‘the Prime Minister spoke to us’.
• Liz Truss was accused of “betraying” blue collar conservatism by one of her MPs in tonight’s 1922 committee. Apparently the PM looked shellshocked at the attack
• So keen was one MP for us to know how well Truss was doing down that they thumped on the inside of the committee room door for about 20 seconds. We did wonder for a moment if they were trapped and trying to get out...
• One Tory MP describes Truss' appearance at the 1922 committee as "funereal." Another, asked if she had done more to reassure colleagues, replies "absolutely not."
• After PM's appearance at the 1922 tonight, one Tory MP told me it was the "worst 1922 I've ever been to". They said: "With each tough question she looked like she’s had the wind knocked out of her, 31st Oct could finish her off on the basis of the reception she got in that room."
• A pro-Truss MP admitted there was "a big split" but they wanted her to "plough on ahead" with anyone who rebels losing the whip. If PM rows back they said she will have "been leveraged into that position by our own party" and those agitating were those "with 20,000 majorities".

One MP has been named as attacking Truss during the meeting: Robert Halfon, who chairs the education select committee, told Truss she had "trashed the last 10 years" of the Conservative economic record, according to one colleague.

I remember when Johnson addressed the 1922 after several rounds of partygate, and while the mood was dire, there were always some MPs who'd come out with a spring in their step, concerns assuaged - and always a few journalists briefing that the mood within the party had rallied.

In contrast, this just sounds dire.

Presumably the ones with 20,000-vote majorities are agitating in fear of losing their seats.

Halfon of course wanted to rename the Conservatives the Workers’ Party and change their logo to a ladder. MP for Harlow in Essex with a majority of 14,000 votes/over 30 points but on current polls and past results in new towns like the one he represents a certain defeat in these conditions.

[Wiswylfen]

Anyone know why Pendle sticks out in the MRP?

[Wiswylfen]

Anyone know why Pendle sticks out in the MRP?

Looks like over-reliance on regional subsamples. Some very odd numbers for e.g. Wales as well.

I thought so at first but also in the North West there's Labour winning Macclesfield and South Ribble, and within 5 points of gaining Penrith and the Border. Romford but not Cities of London and Westminster.

[Wiswylfen]

Thoughts on the North East's revised boundary proposals. Mostly about the names, because the nonsensical variation rules have to be accounted for in any criticism of boundaries themselves.

Whitley Bay and Cramlington was a monstrosity and will not be missed. The proposed Cramlington and Killingworth constituency makes a lot more sense. Backworth and Shiremoor used to be in Seaton Valley until the reorganisation of local government in the 1970s, and were in Blyth constituency until the 1983 boundary changes. I personally favour the name Seaton Valley for the seat, though it's still in use by a parish council, and have suggested changing the name to that on the Boundary Commission website.

The name of a constituency doesn't need to include every town within its boundaries, nor should it. 'X and X' constituency names are ugly and overused. Berwick-upon-Tweed is fine as it is, no need to add Morpeth to the name (let alone Alnwick as some were suggesting). "Gateshead and Whickham" is ridiculous: Whickham is in Gateshead! "Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend" gets a pass, it crosses a local authority boundary and the name was around 1997-2010. "Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West" cannot be taken seriously. The only 'central' part of the constituency is Monument ward; the rest is West End or Outer West.

Also, "Middlesbrough and Thornaby East" has six times as many electors in Middlesbrough as it does in Thornaby. Another pointless 'X and X' name.

[Wiswylfen]

Corbyn had labour on the right path, apologize for the 97 01 05 wins which are tainted by Blair’s Iraqi quagmire, this would have solidified young bipoc and terf support which along with nationalizing the banks would have flipped the Northumbria seats that resent London

Bebbanburh Éastnorþ and Weormúþe Munuca?

[Wiswylfen]

Alfred the Great did it.

[Wiswylfen]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1658108102770671618

The realignment nonsense has been tiresome but I can put up with it if it means the self-destruction of all the idiots who actually bought into it.

[Wiswylfen]

https://twitter.com/AllezLesBoulez/status/1702762147065864371?s=20
This is basically the American reaction I've seen online.

Yes--a great number of online Americans delight in such performative displays, usually motivated more by reacting against their youthful television-based Anglophilia or emulating those who are than anything else, which in this latest instance has turned out to be finding any way to pick at the murder dog ban. It is pathetic.

[Wiswylfen]

Went to a fringe event on focus groups in marginals earlier today. The two constituencies they’d gone to were Darlington and Guildford. For some reason they decided to, in both, recruit 2019 Conservative and Labour voters. No, I’ve no idea either (beyond ‘a lot of people who work in politics and adjacent fields are deeply stupid’).

[Wiswylfen]

The Tories will be dead by 2050. Anything else is basically cope.

Extremely predictable (but contrary to the #narrative) poll on voting intention by supermarket. For non-UK posters, it’s basically a class graph, with the exception of the Co-op which despite being linked with Labour is average for them, but has the Greens on 15% and the Tories on only 9%!

https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1725997192723181782?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gm...

Somehow this has had some cut-through with people not deeply involved in this sort of thing. Had it brought up to me out of the blue yesterday at the dinner table.

[Wiswylfen]

On the other housing issue being discussed, this is an interesting matter. I'm not opposed to there being a transfer of houses from the privately rented sector to the socially rented sector, but unless you stipulated security of tenancy for existing tenants then you would be asking for trouble. I would further add that if a significant expansion of the socially rented sector via housebuilding were to occur, then it would be essential to build and rent some of those houses for general needs and to not apply the usual points system in allocating them. That would cause annoyance in some left-wing (left-liberal? They all are) activist circles, but anything else would be highly risky both socially and politically. If you want a higher proportion of housing to be in the socially rented sector, then the 'residualization' of the sector since the 1980s would have to be at least partially reversed.

I don't see why. As someone who counts himself solidly within the left-liberal tradition (well, left-Liberal) I'd wholeheartedly support it. I have zero sympathy for everyone whining on Twitter who wants to kick people out of socially rented flats and sell them to themselves on the cheap though.

[Wiswylfen]

https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1729268256442298551

[Wiswylfen]

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

[Wiswylfen]

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

A. Are you high?
B. you're federal elected legislature will naturally be dominated by rump England

I'd appreciate it if you showed some respect for the ancient constitution.

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

Separating Cumberland from England and the Lowlands from Scotland and then making "rump-England" a unitary state apart from a cross border Northumberland sounds like a good way to piss off a lot of people.

Doesn't Cornwall have more of a separate identity than Cumberland? and what about an autonomous "Greater London" if you're going to divide England anyway.

By Cumberland I mean a cross-border Cumberland, incorporating the whole of Cumbria or Strathclyde. And not the whole of the Lowlands: just Lothian. In the finest tradition, the obsolete shire boundaries shall be redrawn as convenient. The resulting shires, as with the boroughs, will have strong local governments.

A new city stretching from Winchester to Southampton will serve as a planned capital. London will be to this what Liverpool is to it now; a mere provincial city.

[Wiswylfen]

Heh, going back a full thousand years

Let Richard Johnson, Yuan Yi Zhu, and all the other overrated defenders of the unwritten and/or political constitution tremble at the English constitution. Admittedly Athelstan's national assemblies were a major departure from the earlier assemblies, the members of which were elected from each hundred by FPTP.

[Wiswylfen]

I've come up with a proposal for constitutional reform and would appreciate any thoughts.

- 'Britain' a union with a common defence and foreign policy
-- members: England, Wales, Scotland, Cumberland
-- collective head of state; English president serves as first among equals
-- aforementioned defence and foreign policy determined by an elected legislature (seats distributed by nation according to its population)

- England a unitary state
-- except Northumberland (extends to the Forth) which is autonomous

- unicameral English National Assembly
-- no fixed location; tours England
-- STV for boroughs; list PR for shires
-- additionally, temporary co-option by sortition citizens' assembly-style at its stops
--- that a government can then use the location to rig this in its favour is intentional

I'm mad at you because I've been working on an alternate history which is similar to this.

It is a roughly modernised 10th-century England. I've done (or at least planned) a few things in the past with independent Cumberlands and autonomous Northumberlands though.