Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Doimper]

It's a complete tossup at this point. This is uncharted territory and nobody knows what turnout is going to look like. Gun to my head, I'd say Jones +1.

[Doimper]

Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

Maybe they lost their darts.

lol

[Doimper]

lmao, is the guy that can't go ten posts without screeching about Ted Kennedy and Chappaquiddick seriously using "it was forty years ago" as an excuse for Roy Moore?

[Doimper]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

[Doimper]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

Yes, but half of those models used 2016 vote weights. A decent number of respondents aren't going to honestly answer that they voted for a president with a 36% approval rating, so using self-reported presidential vote as a way to weigh the results is inherently going to marginalize regretful Trump voters that are more likely to vote for Jones.

There's a lot of uncertainty involved with polling a race like this, but the complete and utter pessimism that a lot of people here are infected with is unwarranted.

[Doimper]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

People cherry pick to confirm their own narratives. Like LimoLiberal(R-VA) and the guy on RRH who posts only the best GCB and Trump approval polls that still are rough lol.

I'm not cherry-picking, you dingus, I'm using the model that SurveyMonkey themselves ended up going with. SurveyMonkey is obviously an outlier, and there's no way Jones is winning by eight, but it's still a data point.

[Doimper]

Listen folks I do not live in Alabama.  I have not been there since the 90s.  My wife has a cousin who lives there.  I have not spoken to him.

If Jones loses, I believe you can pin the loss on Allred. She is the one who has raised the question of veracity so high. In my gut I believe it is possible she wants Moore to win to put the GOP on the spot.  But mostly I think she thinks she is helping. Poor deluded woman.

Stop spitting venom at me in relation to this race.  

"I'm wrong, but don't have the balls to admit it."

[Doimper]

Yeah, and SurveyMonkey's not a bad pollster. All the reputable outfits seem to be giving Jones the advantage.

[Doimper]

lmao, check out the principled conservative take on this situation:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"I'm pretty sure I couldn't tolerate a child molester in the Senate, but I'll leave myself enough wiggle room to go back on this if Moore does get elected."

[Doimper]

Yeah, and SurveyMonkey's not a bad pollster.

Since when? Most of their 2016 polls were garbage.

A lot of otherwise good pollsters got burned in 2016. Quinn's 2016 state polls were hot garbage, but they nailed Virginia last month.

[Doimper]

I see jones narrowly pulling it out by 82

82 votes? That's not going to happen, if it's Jones <10,000 the republicans will just fraud the vote, they did it in 2002.

Just like Minnesota and Washington Democrats. 

Whatever you need to tell yourself to feel better, dude

[Doimper]

Exits are beyond terrible for Moore/Republicans.

If Jones wins by a comfortable margin, IceSpear is going to have to take out an accolades mortgage on his home to pay off what he'll owe you.

[Doimper]

New exit polling?

https://twitter.com/ASBRI_Polls