Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DINGO Joe]

Regarding the training skills of the respective armies:

https://www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/

My contempt for the Russian military's ability to train comes primarily from Hertling (above) and Kamil Galeev

Galeev's threads are amazing.  His one on Lukashenko is hilarious.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1518240030967406593

This is an interesting and short thread that explains how Ukraine ended up with a relatively deep well trained military kind of in spite of itself.

https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1522017525143416832

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/050322-lured-by-cheap-oil-india-becomes-largest-customer-of-russian-urals-crude

"Lured by cheap oil, India becomes largest customer of Russian Urals crude"

The trend toward two energy market (a low priced Russian market and a high priced non-Russian market) continues.   

I also read Russian imports of PRC aluminum surged 10 fold starting in March.  I guess that is what the Russians are buying with the CNY they are getting from PRC for their import surge of Russian oil and gas.   

They'll both be limited in what they can buy for two reasons.  In the case of India especially there is a limit to how much Urals crude they can process without mucking up their refineries.  And secondly and most importantly, when you go from shipping something from next door to half way around the world you lenghten the supply chain quite a bit and it's not like there are oil tankers just laying around that can suddenly handle all this,   Hence you get stories like this

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/traders-deploy-costlier-smaller-tankers-move-displaced-russian-oil-china-2022-04-29/

Additionally Europe is getting it's oil from further away.  The VLCCs that China couldn't get are showing up in places like the Gulf Coast which had 9 bookings in April vs 5 in March and 2 in February.  As the SPR works towards a mil bpd, you'll see even more.

In some ways it's OK that some oil gets out of Russia as it takes some pressure off of the global supply shock plus Putin gets a really poor price for the oil but at the same time Russian production has fallen and will continue to fall further. 

Russia does have another problem in that it's actually not easy to decrease production and there's a cost to increase it once you shut it in again.  It is not as easy as turning a spigot, so even if there were an event that suddenly changed Russia there will be a substantial climb and cost to return production.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522096892804481024

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522122185846018048

[DINGO Joe]

LOL

https://twitter.com/HuffPost/status/1522199667127242752

LOL, if that doesn't upset Putler? Basically an admission that the "special operation" doesn't go all too well.

Again, if you've never read this thread about Lukashenko

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1518240030967406593

Read it.  This is 100% on brand for Luchashenko.   

[DINGO Joe]

I am seeing rumblings on Twitter that Ukraine is shifting into a phase of their war plan that is focused on offensive action. Some of the initial reports posted above seems to confirm this. It is my hope that if they are making this shift now, they are confident that they will be successful in clearing a fair amount of land of their Russian occupiers. With that said, we've been hearing about the impending liberation of Kherson for some time now so, who knows?

If true, how long of a window does Ukraine have until the effects of Russian general mobilization kick in?

About 8 to 10 years.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1522661682467815425

Weirdest?  Well, it depends on which day you've watched Madison's version of “pobedobesie”

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1522874379935576064

[DINGO Joe]

It's actually quite interesting that Russian TV let this guy on

https://twitter.com/FuturamaPolls/status/1523048057390071809


Don't know what to make of them letting someone grounded in reality talk about a "mobilization".

[DINGO Joe]

I don't particularly think anyone here has much knowledge of military strategy so I don't  comment or feel the desire to debate anyone's hot takes here about the map.  And of course, feel free to ignore mine.

Regarding Donbas  and any "encirclement"  I tend to believe Igor Girkin (who of course has his own bone to pick with Putin)who said a month ago that the Russian army is too few and too slow to encircle anybody.


As for Pompasas, it took the Russians with the Wagner group 3 weeks to claw thru a town of just under 20,000.  OK.   Ukraine does have home field advantage so maybe they do have better fortified positions.

The Ukrainian advances around Izyium and Kharkiv have still been done mainly by the mobile guerilla style warfare that exploit the thin Russian lines and are able to execute considerable attrition of Russia forces. 

The Ukraines still haven't assembled a true offensive army with artillery, tanks, and infantry all functioning forward at once and given that would be a new type of warfare for them they may still be weeks or months away from doing that.  But the Ukraines are mobilizing and the Russians aren't

[DINGO Joe]

A brief history of the Russian occupation of Snake Island


https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1523353505120940033

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1524351169166024707

Notable for a few reason

--Very impressive view of world class turret toss
--Was captured by Chinese media imbedded with Russians east of Maripol. 
--Actually ran on Chinese media

So, Chinese media showed a Russian tank being blown up in broad daylight supposedly well behind the front lines.

[DINGO Joe]

Russians erected a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets. Seems like they are trying for the encirclement of Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk from the North and now the South since they have Popasna.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1524399801617592322

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524413089579511808

Sorry Comrade, no luck today, but try try again.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1524055423279583232

What would happen if Ukraine started to raid the Russian border?

I don’t see what they would gain by sending troops into Russian territory while so much of their country is still Russian-occupied, but they should definitely use artillery and drones to (continue to?) strike at strategic targets within Russian territory.

Occupying a Russian town or two for a morale/propaganda boost.

There's no reason for the Ukrainians to do anything symbolic.  However, if there is a target on the Russian side that cuts off the supply chain they should hit it.  Russia is very dependent on their artillery and the shells are big and heavy and thus they're very reliant on rail to move it forward.  They should do anything to cut their rail supply lines.

[DINGO Joe]

Russians erected a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets. Seems like they are trying for the encirclement of Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk from the North and now the South since they have Popasna.

Sorry Comrade, no luck today, but try try again.

General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Russian troops managed to cross Siversky Donets river near Lyman

Source: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1524605123175063552

The Girkin tweet says they crossed, tried to hold the south bank and 12 hrs later they went back.  Or at least some of them.

[DINGO Joe]

The Russians tried crossing the river again, with predictable results:

https://twitter.com/realjrobinson86/status/1524784643702022149?s=20&t=0ESdda...

As they say, a picture is worth a thousand Woodbury tweets.

[DINGO Joe]

Lukashenka gonna Luka

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1525184259102846977

Wonder who the angry guy in the video is.

[DINGO Joe]

Yet another breakthrough moment of Russian State TV...

Looks like maybe more cracks are starting to emerge among the Russian "elite" consensus regarding the War in Ukraine?

A retired Russian colonel told state media on Monday that the invasion of Ukraine is not going the way Russia is portraying it, and that the global isolation facing the country is more daunting than Russian leaders are letting on.

“After all, the main deficiency of our military-political position is that, in a way, we are in full geopolitical isolation, and that, however much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us,” Mikhail Khodaryonok said, according to a video translated by the BBC’s Francis Scarr. “And it’s that situation that we need to get out of.”

When asked about the current state of the war, Khodaryonok, who has given frank assessments of the war on Russian airwaves in recent days, urged viewers to be cautious about any information put out by Russia on how Ukrainian forces “are allegedly on the verge of some kind of crisis in morale and so on.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/16/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates-putin/#link-3M57NDP4CZFZ5NPHHLL3NON3VE

Here's his segment with subtitles

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882

He's the same guy who gave the reality segment a week ago.  Again, it's interesting that he gets to do this. 

[DINGO Joe]

Here's his segment with subtitles

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882
He's the same guy who gave the reality segment a week ago.  Again, it's interesting that he gets to do this. 

Not without constantly being prodded by one of the hosts lol

Most of these people only really have one thing to say and anything else is met with resistance.

Well, Khodaryonok knows his sh*t (plus he's right) so it's easy for him to stay on point when "debating" these caricatures.

BTW, here's a link to an article he wrote 3 weeks before the invasion where he predicted spot on how things would go

Predictions of bloodthirsty political scientists--About enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/HBlargh/status/1526287121295736832?s=20&t=_N9JXKXyxDFoB0...

Well, this has been the most visual war in history, so you get to see that it's hard to make decisions when somebody is trying to blow you up (in this case the driver of the second BMP probably didn't realize the first hit a mine and was probably trying to get out of a zone of fire).  I've seen videos of Russian heat signatures run around in circles while a drone blows up the tank he was fortunately not occupying at the time.  I've seen an octocopter drop a grenade thru the sunroof of some hapless (probably mobilized) troops trying to flee.   Tanks who hit a mine and then backup and hit another.   And of course the endless parade of turret tosses where whatever crew inside is just turned to ash. 

It frequently does have a "blooper" reel feel to it and I've chuckled a time or two and made my own memes and jokes, but damn, how anybody not defending their country still gets inside one of these things at this point,,,,,,,

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1527607537041801216

Ukraine hit a Russian supply convoy of at least 10-12 trucks just outside of Pompasna

Attrite Attrite Attrite

[DINGO Joe]

So this one is really fun.

Yesterday the Russian had a video of star "journalist" Sasha Kots showing the powerful and rare 2S4 Tyulpan 240 mm self-propelled heavy mortar (previously seen at Astoval) now firing from a position in what will turn out to be Rubizine.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1527752480045551617

Guess what the Ukrainians were able to take out today

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1528046140847198210

Good work Sasha!

Should be noted that maps posted here show that the Russians are in control of Rubizine but obviously control doesn't mean what it sounds like.

[DINGO Joe]

Let's home the kherson offensive will Work. It would be a complete humiliation for the russians

Again, with caveat that I know nothing about military strategy and tactics, I doubt this is a full scale attempt to take Kherson.  I doubt the Ukrainians have developed the trained manpower to do something like that yet.  Kharkiv was the first time there was actual evidence of Ukrainians using infantry, tanks and artillery in an offensive manner.  This very well could be the second time and they may be trying to pick their "spot"  for a modest offensive and isolation of some Russian troops.   

The war is still really about attrition.  I've been on vacation and haven't back read the thread to see if anyone posted the video of the train of old Russian T-62s coming out of storage, but if the Russians are already having to dole that stuff out they're already showing  some big cracks.

On the note of attrition, there's some video out there of a substantial fire in Donets that's supposed to be a Russian ammo depot.   

[DINGO Joe]

Re:  Replacing  Russian tanks.  Well, if they're breaking out the T-62s.  It's a 4 man crew (rather than 3)  different ammo, and really a whole different supply chain as you need different parts to keep those going.

[DINGO Joe]

Re:  Replacing  Russian tanks.  Well, if they're breaking out the T-62s.  It's a 4 man crew (rather than 3)  different ammo, and really a whole different supply chain as you need different parts to keep those going.

The last of them were officially retired a few years ago, and even the “‘modernised” ones are probably going to fare worse than the technically older T-72s and T-80s seen over the last couple of days (which have newer, more survivable designs).

Michael Kaufman, who’s been one of the more credible analysts in this conflict, has argued they could have been taken out before some of the other tanks to be used by reservists who’d trained with them.

Well, if those reservists go to Ukraine, then that's what they'll have to drive. 

[DINGO Joe]

Your war voyeur video of the day

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1530937588206272512