Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

M'kay.


https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521727524069416962

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know if this has been reported on here yet, but....


https://twitter.com/IlenIsmo/status/1522148996999000065


As usual, the decision making process on this one was a bit of a lengthy one, and consisted of following the lead of Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, and the United States after Scholz had been worked on by Greens, FDP, and the media for a while.

Do we have confirmation that Scholz is on board with this? We've been burned before...

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't know if this has been reported on here yet, but....


https://twitter.com/IlenIsmo/status/1522148996999000065


As usual, the decision making process on this one was a bit of a lengthy one, and consisted of following the lead of Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, and the United States after Scholz had been worked on by Greens, FDP, and the media for a while.

Do we have confirmation that Scholz is on board with this? We've been burned before...

Well, so far it's not "officially" official, but it has by now been reported by several sources. Which means it's probably more if an issue of "when" and not "if".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breaking: Germany normalizes diplomatic relations with Ukraine. 


https://twitter.com/dpa_intl/status/1522191217697689600

[jaichind]

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/050322-lured-by-cheap-oil-india-becomes-largest-customer-of-russian-urals-crude

"Lured by cheap oil, India becomes largest customer of Russian Urals crude"

The trend toward two energy market (a low priced Russian market and a high priced non-Russian market) continues.   

I also read Russian imports of PRC aluminum surged 10 fold starting in March.  I guess that is what the Russians are buying with the CNY they are getting from PRC for their import surge of Russian oil and gas.   

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1522197801853239296
Ukraine has launched an official counter attack out of Kharkiv with the main of severing the Izium forces per Ukraine’s CIC

[Former President tack50]

Is it more or less near certain Russia is going to further escalate their presence on May 9th?

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov has firmly denied that Russia will declare war on May 9th.

So it's almost certain it will happen.

If Russia actually formally does declare war, it will be the first "formally declare" war since what, Iran-Irak?

Tbh I think an actual war declaration is incredibly unlikely as that is something that countries these days just don't do even when they actually fight wars; since iirc it comes with a lot of downsides and not many benefits.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is it more or less near certain Russia is going to further escalate their presence on May 9th?

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov has firmly denied that Russia will declare war on May 9th.

So it's almost certain it will happen.

If Russia actually formally does declare war, it will be the first "formally declare" war since what, Iran-Irak?

Tbh I think an actual war declaration is incredibly unlikely as that is something that countries these days just don't do even when they actually fight wars; since iirc it comes with a lot of downsides and not many benefits.

I don't think that it would be a formal, legal declaration of war, more like that they stop calling it a "special military operation" und start calling it a "war".

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1522197801853239296
Ukraine has launched an official counter attack out of Kharkiv with the main of severing the Izium forces per Ukraine’s CIC

ISW assessed that a counterattack out of Kharkiv would be unlikely to disrupt Russian operations in Izium, as their supply lines weren’t near Kharkiv. It could spare the populous city artillery barrages, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

ISW assessed that a counterattack out of Kharkiv would be unlikely to disrupt Russian operations in Izium, as their supply lines weren’t near Kharkiv. It could spare the populous city artillery barrages, though.

And there are already reports that those have decreased markedly in recent days.

[Middle-aged Europe]

LOL

https://twitter.com/HuffPost/status/1522199667127242752

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/050322-lured-by-cheap-oil-india-becomes-largest-customer-of-russian-urals-crude

"Lured by cheap oil, India becomes largest customer of Russian Urals crude"

The trend toward two energy market (a low priced Russian market and a high priced non-Russian market) continues.   

I also read Russian imports of PRC aluminum surged 10 fold starting in March.  I guess that is what the Russians are buying with the CNY they are getting from PRC for their import surge of Russian oil and gas.   

They'll both be limited in what they can buy for two reasons.  In the case of India especially there is a limit to how much Urals crude they can process without mucking up their refineries.  And secondly and most importantly, when you go from shipping something from next door to half way around the world you lenghten the supply chain quite a bit and it's not like there are oil tankers just laying around that can suddenly handle all this,   Hence you get stories like this

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/traders-deploy-costlier-smaller-tankers-move-displaced-russian-oil-china-2022-04-29/

Additionally Europe is getting it's oil from further away.  The VLCCs that China couldn't get are showing up in places like the Gulf Coast which had 9 bookings in April vs 5 in March and 2 in February.  As the SPR works towards a mil bpd, you'll see even more.

In some ways it's OK that some oil gets out of Russia as it takes some pressure off of the global supply shock plus Putin gets a really poor price for the oil but at the same time Russian production has fallen and will continue to fall further. 

Russia does have another problem in that it's actually not easy to decrease production and there's a cost to increase it once you shut it in again.  It is not as easy as turning a spigot, so even if there were an event that suddenly changed Russia there will be a substantial climb and cost to return production.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL

https://twitter.com/HuffPost/status/1522199667127242752

LOL, if that doesn't upset Putler? Basically an admission that the "special operation" doesn't go all too well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know if this has been reported on here yet, but....


https://twitter.com/IlenIsmo/status/1522148996999000065


As usual, the decision making process on this one was a bit of a lengthy one, and consisted of following the lead of Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, and the United States after Scholz had been worked on by Greens, FDP, and the media for a while.

Do we have confirmation that Scholz is on board with this? We've been burned before...

Well, so far it's not "officially" official, but it has by now been reported by several sources. Which means it's probably more if an issue of "when" and not "if".

The announcements for Marders and Leopards also sounded pretty official...

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't know if this has been reported on here yet, but....


https://twitter.com/IlenIsmo/status/1522148996999000065


As usual, the decision making process on this one was a bit of a lengthy one, and consisted of following the lead of Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, and the United States after Scholz had been worked on by Greens, FDP, and the media for a while.

Do we have confirmation that Scholz is on board with this? We've been burned before...

Well, so far it's not "officially" official, but it has by now been reported by several sources. Which means it's probably more if an issue of "when" and not "if".

The announcements for Marders and Leopards also sounded pretty official...

The Leopard thing was an export request filed by the manufacturer to the German government. The Marder thing was a request by the Ukrainian government that was then endorsed by the German manufacturer.

The Panzerhaubitze 2000 thing seems like a idea that actually originated from within the circles of the government itself.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522096892804481024

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522122185846018048

[DINGO Joe]

LOL

https://twitter.com/HuffPost/status/1522199667127242752

LOL, if that doesn't upset Putler? Basically an admission that the "special operation" doesn't go all too well.

Again, if you've never read this thread about Lukashenko

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1518240030967406593

Read it.  This is 100% on brand for Luchashenko.   

[Hindsight was 2020]

Correction there are reports of shelling near Izium and reports of Ukraine troops crossing the Donets River, so the Izium counterattack seems to be simultaneously happening with the Kharkiv one not the same event

[Storr]

Correction there are reports of shelling near Izium and reports of Ukraine troops crossing the Donets River, so the Izium counterattack seems to be simultaneously happening with the Kharkiv one not the same event

Big if true. Though, it seems as if a full scale successful counter offensive is unlikely at the moment, retaking Izium would be absolutely huge for Ukraine.

[Person Man]

M'kay.


https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1521727524069416962

They are clowns.

[AndyHogan14]

I am seeing rumblings on Twitter that Ukraine is shifting into a phase of their war plan that is focused on offensive action. Some of the initial reports posted above seems to confirm this. It is my hope that if they are making this shift now, they are confident that they will be successful in clearing a fair amount of land of their Russian occupiers. With that said, we've been hearing about the impending liberation of Kherson for some time now so, who knows?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Putin apologizes... to Israel for his foreign minister being such a moron.


https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1522260175536676866

[Middle-aged Europe]

I am seeing rumblings on Twitter that Ukraine is shifting into a phase of their war plan that is focused on offensive action. Some of the initial reports posted above seems to confirm this. It is my hope that if they are making this shift now, they are confident that they will be successful in clearing a fair amount of land of their Russian occupiers. With that said, we've been hearing about the impending liberation of Kherson for some time now so, who knows?

If true, how long of a window does Ukraine have until the effects of Russian general mobilization kick in?

[AndyHogan14]

I am seeing rumblings on Twitter that Ukraine is shifting into a phase of their war plan that is focused on offensive action. Some of the initial reports posted above seems to confirm this. It is my hope that if they are making this shift now, they are confident that they will be successful in clearing a fair amount of land of their Russian occupiers. With that said, we've been hearing about the impending liberation of Kherson for some time now so, who knows?

If true, how long of a window does Ukraine have until the effects of Russian general mobilization kick in?

From my understanding, it could take months to mobilize Russia which carries a major political risk for Putin—some of the people that are generally exempt from conscription may have to serve. Also, the new conscripts are most likely going to be poorly trained (unlike the Ukrainians), so it may not have that much of an impact (especially within the next few months)

[rc18]

Putin apologizes... to Israel for his foreign minister being such a moron.


https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1522260175536676866

Translation: Pretty please don't send Spike or Blue Spear to **** up my armed forces any more than they already have been.