WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[President Johnson]

I think he would be an interesting candidate and someone who could actually win.

https://twitter.com/MarkPocan/status/1335784970858729477

[President Johnson]

he might be too liberal to win, I think Kind or Barnes(maybe?) has the best shot

Well, Tammy Baldwin is progressive as well. Am I wrong to assume Pocan has similar appeal than her? Wisconsin is kinda weird, as they seem fine to elect conservative Republicans and progressive Democrats. I think the best way to go here is run sort of a #populist candidate.

[President Johnson]

Who cares, who get nominated, Johnson didn't serve himself any good by saying the mob riot wasn't incited by Trump and neither did McCarthy

Not that anyone will care about this in November 2022. And those people who do won't vote for this guy anyway.

[President Johnson]

Hard to assess how strong a candidate Barnes would be. I thought Mark Pocan would have been a good choice for Democrats, but he isn't running.

Mandela Barnes the LT governor of the state followed me on twitter, perhaps he is hinting at a run for office by following key power-brokers in the state.

Lmao, I got Susan Bysiewicz and Nanette Barragan on another network

[President Johnson]

Probably still Lean Republican, but really depends on candidates. Would actually be nice to have this moron out of the senate.

For some reason, I think there will be quite some ticket splitting between senate and governor.

[President Johnson]

Ron Johnson is IN:

https://www.fox6now.com/news/wisconsin-senator-ron-johnson-reelection

Lean Republican -> Likely Republican

[President Johnson]

This ought to be unironically good for Dems, but man, it sure is gonna suck when he once again rides a wave to a victory that he wouldn't otherwise get in a non-GOP wave year.

Yeah, after he managed to hang on in 2016 already, I don't think he loses this time. And I'm not sure Mandela Barnes is a strong enough candidate. He'd deserve to win the seat for certain, but well...

[President Johnson]

New Marquette University Law School poll.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

Ron Johnson's favorability ratings are underwater 36-46. Asked if Johnson cared about people like them the Y/N was 39/50. Democrats are equally enthusiastic about voting as Republicans. This is definitely a race to watch. There were no head to head numbers.

In this environment, he's unfortunately still going to win by at least four or five points, if not in high single digits.

[President Johnson]

Scott Walker criticizes Wisconsin Democrats for rallying behind a “racial.”

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1553108030929178624?s=21&t=fhr4dSI...

I actually had to read it three times before I figured out it didn't mean "radical". In all fairness, almost certainly an unintended typo.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1554192291031572480?s=20&t=Eqmffi...

It seems a pattern across the country that Democratic candidates do extremely well in terms of fundraising this cycle, despite the fundamentals of the national election.

While it certainly helps them, I don't think it changes the overall fundamentals. As for Wisconsin, Barnes remains an underdog in November, but he has a fighting chance.

[President Johnson]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Yes, Barnes was not the vehicle capable of taking advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses and extremism because he has his weaknesses of his own on that front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to scare enough people to win again.

So voters are okay with Johnsons extremism but not a few of Barnes more liberal talking points? Come on now.

Unfortunately, the media has an insane double standard when it comes to how extreme Democrats are versus Republicans. That's what will allow Johnson to win a third term. That, and the national environment.

About that national environment thing...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

If that indeed becomes true in November - and it's still a big if - Dobbs will just be one of three major reasons in my opinion. Equally important would be inflation cooling down with gas prices further dropping and Republicans pandering so much to the extreme that it scares off swing voters and energizes the Democratic base, including progressives uneasy with Biden not getting more stuff passed.

[President Johnson]

I think Barnes is one of the best candidates of this cycle. His ads are truly amazing.

Agreed. This is also the TV debate I'm most eager to watch here, along with Pennsylvania and Georgia.

[President Johnson]

Dark Brandon now involved:

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1577106228697862146

[President Johnson]

Barnes was the wrong candidate for this race. Johnson remains the luckiest guy in Republican politics.

Looks like, yeah. I always thought Mark Pocan would have been a good candidate.

[President Johnson]

Barnes seems to have failed in portraying Ron Johnson as an elitist insider whose political views are out of touch with the mainstream electorate. Barnes should (have) pressed Johnson on what specific policy proposals he wants to ease economic hartships and tackle inflation (aside from focusing on abortion). And ask Johnson why he hasn't delivered on that already.

Johnson also deserves more flack for breaking his two-term promise. I think this would be very easy to attack him on, or just as a typical pay-for-play politician who only cares about winning reelection.

Now, I'm not sure this would have been enough and I'm not a political organizer who's deeply into Wisconsin specifics, but I feel like this was a missed opportunity. At least to give Johnson a tougher run for his money. The election of course hasn't happened so far, but I don't see Barnes winning anymore. A 52-48% split is probably the best he can hope for at this point.

[President Johnson]

I went through the numbers: If Barnes would win 70% again of the remaining Milwaukee vote outstanding, he would run about even with RoJo. Additionally, Dane County is just at 93%, where Barnes is even at 77% of the vote so far. Most rural red counties seem completed or almost through. Am I wrong or could this just be enough for a razor-thin victory? What are the remaining Milawaukee votes? by mail, which would favor Barnes.