Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?

You're right, but I think it's just a matter of creating more D intensity. If Ds get a "win" this weekend, there's more enthusiasm from the base to go and vote on Tuesday. Otherwise, some may feel deflated.

There also may be a few independents who see the gridlock in Washington as a reason to vote R, but may come home to Ds if they actually see sh**t getting done.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?

You're right, but I think it's just a matter of creating more D intensity. If Ds get a "win" this weekend, there's more enthusiasm from the base to go and vote on Tuesday. Otherwise, some may feel deflated.

There also may be a few independents who see the gridlock in Washington as a reason to vote R, but may come home to Ds if they actually see sh**t getting done.

Not that intensity isn't good, but ultimately, wouldn't the people who turned out due to a successful package being passed already be quite likely to vote to begin with? (or even already voted)
Fair point on Independents though. Every vote matters.

[roxas11]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?

In a close race the margins can make all the difference and this also could pointaly boost dem enthusiasm heading into the election

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?

In a close race the margins can make all the difference and this also could pointaly boost dem enthusiasm heading into the election

Worth noting that a bunch of Democrats have already early voted.

[roxas11]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?

In a close race the margins can make all the difference and this also could pointaly boost dem enthusiasm heading into the election

Worth noting that a bunch of Democrats have already early voted.

True, but some Dems and even some dem leaning independent voters have still not voted yet.

If They see that the Dems are actually are actually getting something done that could sway atlest some of them to come off the fence and go vote at least

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?

In a close race the margins can make all the difference and this also could pointaly boost dem enthusiasm heading into the election

Worth noting that a bunch of Democrats have already early voted.

True, but some Dems and even some dem leaning independent voters have still not voted yet.

The Dems actually gets something done could sway at lest some of them to come off the fence and go vote

The vast majority of such Dems/Dem-leaning Indies probably aren't "on the fence" in any real way and plan on voting on Election Day or whatnot.
They weren't about to not vote because Ds couldn't pass the bill in time. There are state-level issues and this is a state-level election. And Youngkin seems to generate a very negative reaction from Democrats.

[Non Swing Voter]

TimTurner is right.  Nobody here is voting on that issue.  At most it just makes Dems look incompetent.  And Biden's whole pitch was that Trump was incompetent to lead.  Now people probably are just saying that all politicians are worthless.

That said, Virginia is an extremely polarized electorate.  NOVA and SWVA are two different worlds.  In a low turnout election like we will have this year, all that matters is getting your voters out.  Which in this case means big suburbs for Dems and some exurbs/small towns/rural areas for the GOP.  That's literally what's going to decide the election.  The margins might change a bit but as long as NOVA turns out Youngkin can't win.

[wbrocks67]

If Va was like CA with a total baked in early mail vote, maybe, but over 50% of VA's electorate will vote in person on Tuesday, so how would any news be 'too late'?

https://twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/1453746376173621251

[Not Me, Us]

If Va was like CA with a total baked in early mail vote, maybe, but over 50% of VA's electorate will vote in person on Tuesday, so how would any news be 'too late'?

https://twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/1453746376173621251

I don't really see how infrastructure is even related to the VA gubernatorial election. Is anybody's vote actually gonna be decided by whether infrastructure gets passed or not?

[wbrocks67]

If Va was like CA with a total baked in early mail vote, maybe, but over 50% of VA's electorate will vote in person on Tuesday, so how would any news be 'too late'?

https://twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/1453746376173621251

I don't really see how infrastructure is even related to the VA gubernatorial election. Is anybody's vote actually gonna be decided by whether infrastructure gets passed or not?

We talked about this above. Probably not a big impact, but little things like "Wow Dems finally got something done!" versus "Dems are still in disarray!" can make a difference if this race is actually as tight as polls suggest.

[BigSerg]

VIRGINIA Biden Job Approval VCU:

Approve 41%
Disapprove 54%

VIRGINIA Biden Job Approval Suffolk:

Approve 42%
Disapprove 52%

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1453742293052051463
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1453744369543094272

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1453742293052051463
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1453744369543094272

I've always said McAuliffe +2

[It’s so Joever]

The real question now is whether Chesterfield County flips to the Republicans or not.

[SnowLabrador]

It's a tossup.

[Pollster]

7% average undecided (which has been consistent in all the polling I've looked at that properly nudges leaners/doesn't cut true undecideds) is a strikingly high number in a high-profile, big-spending race that has reached virtually 100% media saturation in a state with a large pool of government and politics-adjacent voters.

It is probably the primary reason that I'm not really confident in any prediction I could make for the final result, and will undoubtedly generate plenty of misinformed "the polls were wrong" takes if McAuliffe wins resoundingly or if Youngkin pulls it off.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453702316167729154

Super low Dem enthusiasm for sure.  The thing this forum doesn't seem to get is that a vote of a normal person who walks in, circles a bubble, and walks out with an "I VOTED" sticker counts just as much as an insane MAGA traitor wearing a hat and MAGA shirt and 500 buttons about how Dems are destroying America.

[LabourJersey]

If Va was like CA with a total baked in early mail vote, maybe, but over 50% of VA's electorate will vote in person on Tuesday, so how would any news be 'too late'?

https://twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/1453746376173621251

I don't really see how infrastructure is even related to the VA gubernatorial election. Is anybody's vote actually gonna be decided by whether infrastructure gets passed or not?

We talked about this above. Probably not a big impact, but little things like "Wow Dems finally got something done!" versus "Dems are still in disarray!" can make a difference if this race is actually as tight as polls suggest.

Exactly. Having a framework shows that the Democrats are getting something accomplished.

A decent chunk of why Biden's approvals have declined is because of the belief he's not getting anything done (all of Manchin and Sinema's stonewalling is being blamed on Biden, something that neither of those even realize, amazingly)

[Rookie Yinzer]

If Va was like CA with a total baked in early mail vote, maybe, but over 50% of VA's electorate will vote in person on Tuesday, so how would any news be 'too late'?

https://twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/1453746376173621251

“In the race of his life” “pleading (practically begging)”

Whew the beltway media is so dramatic and thirsty.

[Devils30]

The real question now is whether Chesterfield County flips to the Traitors or not.

A 2% Youngkin win in Chesterfield won't be nearly enough for the GOP

[BigSerg]

There will be no rally in Virginia, Trump was referring to "telephone rallies" and not a "campaign rally".

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1453828521957154816?s=20

https://twitter.com/UNATCOHillaryPC/status/1453827379294572546?s=20

[darklordoftech]

What will the narrative be if Youngkin wins?

[BigSerg]

What will the narrative be if Youngkin wins?

Standard midterm elections

[Matty]

I’m really starting to think youngkin wins chesterfield, regardless of outcome

He’s the perfect gop fit for the area.

[wbrocks67]

Again, it doesn't matter what it is, this now opens up more "Trump is helping Youngkin" narratives. Doesn't matter if it's an actual rally or a tele-rally. But one wonders why Trump is even doing a telephone rally for him on Monday, rather then not doing anything at all and keeping his name out of it.