COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Updated data from CDC show that more Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID-19 than those under age 65.  The risks to young people are terribly overstated by the sensationalist media. 

from the beginning the media should have focused on the risk to seniors. But no, lets do what gets us the best ratings!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Latest studies show infection rates much higher, which means a much lower death rate.

I’ve been saying this from the very beginning. Biggest overreaction ever.

what are latest studies saying about fatality rates among specific age brackets?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The societal impact from corona will very likely be astonishingly small because people will get sick of it and want a return to normalcy, even in the event it can never be truly gotten rid of.
Economy is where the real permanent change is positioned to occur in.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

Get this, there has been over 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times more Covid-19 deaths under just one Republican President than under all previous Democratic presidents combined!
Republican presidents cause death.
Correlation equals causation.

There have been 1 googol times more covid-19 deaths during the existence of the United States than there was when we were under British rule.
It is time we became a British colony because that would stop coronavirus. Correlation equals causation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beware of subscriptions that are worse than the disease. If you extend the span of time for consideration long enough and just slavishly insist on lockdowns, you unleash a massive array of massively ugly consquences onto society, above and beyond what corona would be capable of.
The worst case scenario is not all efforts to contain corona spreading through the wider population failing. It is our economy collapsing under the weight of lockdowns, lockdowns being defied by the broader populace and thus being rendered ineffective, governments locking up people for not following its unpopular policies, society unraveling under the weight of humans being starved of face-to-face contact, and a whole host of negative consequences stemming from vain efforts on part of authorities to force mankind, an inherently social species, to talk to itself mainly by a set of screens and not normally for longer than it is willing to bear.
Corona stinks, but it isn't the end of world. The closest we can get to end of the world would be humanity sinking into collective insanity.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Despite my griping at people about wanting the economy closed indefinitely until every last human being and now animal** has a vaccine against coronavirus I want to state that I am dead set opposed to what Brian Kemp is doing right now.

Individual states opening up the economy to soon and aggressively right now could pro long this further. When I was hoping for a strict lock down for a few months to get the virus under control start phased reopening in late June.

There does seem to be some convoluted wisdom in Kemp's plan. Among his goals is maintaining solvency for medical institutions by allowing elective procedures to take place. Many doctors have been forced to retire from the profession by the fact that Corona stops them from collecting any or sufficient money.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

If we divide the 50 states and DC into tertiles based on deaths per million:

Top 3rd D: (12) NY, NJ, NJ, CT, LA, MI, DC, RI, IL, PA, CO, DE, WA
Top 3rd R: (5) MA, IN, GA, MS, MD

Mid 3rd D: (9) NV, VA, KY, WI, NM, MN, CA, KS, ME
Mid 3rd R: ( VT, OH, OK, FL, MO, NH, AL, AZ

Bottom 3rd D: (4) NC, OR, MT, HI
Bottom 3rd R: (13) IA, SC, ID, NE, TN, TX, ND, WV, AR, UT, AK, WY, SD

But this is basically just a list of state population densities, broken up into tiers that suit your narrative.

Population density is a partial explanation.

Top 3rd D (12) DC, NJ, RI, CT, DE, NY, PA, CA-, IL, HI--, VA-, NC--
Top 3rd D (5) MD, MA, FL-, OH-, IN

CA, HI, VA, NC are better at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as are FL and OH.

Mid 3rd D (6) MI+, KY, LA+, WA+, WI, MN
Mid 3rd R (11) GA+, SC, TN-, TX-, AL, MO, WV-, VT, MS+, AZ, NH

MI, LA, WA are worse at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as are GA and MS. TN, TX, and WV are doing better than expected.

Bottom 3rd D(7) CO++, ME+, OR, NV+, NM+, MT, KS+
Bottom 3rd R(10) AR, OK+, IA, UT, NE, ID, SD, ND, WY, AK

CO, NE, NV, NM, KS are worse at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as is OK.

Governorships are nearly evenly split 25D:26R.

8 states led by Democrats do worse than expected based on density, 4 do better.

3 states led by Republicans do worse than expected based on density, 6 do better.

Florida is twice as densely populated as Michigan, yet Michigan has almost 7 times the death rate. Governor Whitmer tries to keep Michiganders indoors, won't let them travel to their summer cottages, and won't let them buy seeds for vegetables. We know UV sunlight promotes production of Vitamin D, which supports the immune system and bone health. Exposure to sunlight also reduces depression. Whitmer's pallor suggests a lack of sun exposure. Florida under DeSantis' leadership permits Floridians to enjoy the beaches.

If I saw real evidence Whitmer did this and thinks this, I'd agree with you regarding her response. But do you have any news items to that effect?
I did a comprehensive look at the news and I couldn't find any actual evidence she was pushing particularly harsh policies. I came off with the impression that the news cycle was distorting how she was actually acting, policy-wise.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beware of subscriptions that are worse than the disease. If you extend the span of time for consideration long enough and just slavishly insist on lockdowns, you unleash a massive array of massively ugly consquences onto society, above and beyond what corona would be capable of.
The worst case scenario is not all efforts to contain corona spreading through the wider population failing. It is our economy collapsing under the weight of lockdowns, lockdowns being defied by the broader populace and thus being rendered ineffective, governments locking up people for not following its unpopular policies, society unraveling under the weight of humans being starved of face-to-face contact, and a whole host of negative consequences stemming from vain efforts on part of authorities to force mankind, an inherently social species, to talk to itself mainly by a set of screens and not normally for longer than it is willing to bear.
Corona stinks, but it isn't the end of world. The closest we can get to end of the world would be humanity sinking into collective insanity.

You missed the worst case for the 1%, that has them sweating bullets: a widespread successful response that involves drastic restructuring of our society and economy in a way that proves abusive and exploitative capitalism is worse than unnecessary.

Why would a system unfavorable to the 1% be put in place if the public has became more docile than ever?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More news from the frontlines of the lockdown:  the number of visits at primary care clinics (including telehealth) has declined more than 60% since mid-March.

Patients are deferring "non-essential" visits and letting chronic healthcare conditions (like diabetes or heart disease) go unmanaged.  Unmanaged conditions will eventually become urgent. At worst, this will contribute to increased mortality from non-COVID conditions (and will make the true scope of the pandemic's lethality difficult to calculate).  These small family practices are also not well-posited to absorb the lost revenue, and many will have to either close or be bought by larger hospital systems or health conglomerates.  

This is why I stopped seeing the Kemp plan as complete insanity. These small family medical practices will need either a bailout or a fighting chance at getting revenue and staying afloat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1254825274786668546
Good news.

I don’t really see how this can be interpreted as evidence the lockdowns are working.  It’s seems just as likely to me that this is an inevitable consequence of approaching herd immunity, with about 25% of NYC’s population already infected.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don’t really see how this can be interpreted as evidence the lockdowns are working.  It’s seems just as likely to me that this is an inevitable consequence of approaching herd immunity, with about 25% of NYC’s population already infected.

If lockdowns worked, this decline would have happened much earlier.

Pandemics die down. People build up immunity, the seasons change, and things change.

Do you literally not understand, or simply refuse to, that the whole point of the lockdown isn't to magically eliminate the virus but to keep the numbers steady so the healthcare system isn't overwhemed?

Keep the numbers steady until when?  You mean the initial goal of the lockdown was to keep infections and death constant until a vaccine was developed?  So everyone was always planning on enforcing lockdowns for 18 months?

The fact is that this was NOT the goal of the lockdown.  If our goal was to spread infections around more evenly so that particular local healthcare systems didn’t get overwhelmed, we would have gone about this much differently.  We would have implemented stronger restrictions where we saw empirical signs of rapid growth, and weaker restrictions where we didn’t.  And we wouldn’t have discouraged New Yorkers from leaving town when the virus exploded there.  If we just wanted to reduce the burden on an overloaded health care system, we would have encouraged New Yorkers to leave to lighten the load on NY’s system and spread the virus to places where it could be better managed.

The goal of the lockdown was to reduce total infections.  That’s what all the models told us would happen.  But the models were wrong in many ways.  The models way underestimated the contagion of the virus and overestimated its lethality.  The lockdowns have almost completely failed to turn the spread negative, and by bluntly forcing a one-size-fits-all approach, they have increased the deaths that will result from the virus by failing to better protect the most vulnerable.

The lockdowns within a certain limit were absolutely rational, but it is clear that way too many elected officials and others have come to rely on them way too much, harming the economy and the people themselves in the process.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

People still say "YOLO"?

You mean the county in California?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

People still say "YOLO"?

You mean the county in California?

Solid D in 2020, IMO. 

No disagreement there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anybody know if Penn Quaker is alive and well? Just realized I haven't seen her post in some time and she was getting over Covid-19. I'm probably being paranoid and she's just busy with real life. She was always posting in this thread specifically.

Still alive and well, yes!

Just been busy wrapping up some end-of-the-school-year stuff!

Nice to hear.