National Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls. 

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.

[Skill and Chance]

Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls. 

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.  They  basically give a lower bound for Obama.  We need to wait for the media polls to fully judge the bounce.  On the left side of the spectrum, PPP apparently has better than 2008 numbers for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if Pew had something like Obama 56%/Romney 40% if they poll this week...

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls. 

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.  They  basically give a lower bound for Obama.  We need to wait for the media polls to fully judge the bounce.  On the left side of the spectrum, PPP apparently has better than 2008 numbers for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if Pew had something like Obama 56%/Romney 40% if they poll this week...

Is Pew putting out a poll this week? I wish there was a schedule for the results of polls being released. It'd be so much easier.

[J. J.]

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.  They  basically give a lower bound for Obama.  We need to wait for the media polls to fully judge the bounce.  On the left side of the spectrum, PPP apparently has better than 2008 numbers for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if Pew had something like Obama 56%/Romney 40% if they poll this week...

Ah, PPP doesn't do a tracking poll. 

[MorningInAmerica]

Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls.  

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.

Though neither is as Republican leaning as PPP is Dem, as you can see, per Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

[Lief 🗽]

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.  They  basically give a lower bound for Obama.  We need to wait for the media polls to fully judge the bounce.  On the left side of the spectrum, PPP apparently has better than 2008 numbers for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if Pew had something like Obama 56%/Romney 40% if they poll this week...

Ah, PPP doesn't do a tracking poll. 

They do a weekly tracking poll.

[MorningInAmerica]

Obama's lead in the Rasmussen swing-state poll is still only 1 point, 46-45%, same as yesterday. And with leaners, it's tied 47-47%.

[MorningInAmerica]

Monday, September 10 update:

Obama is up one more point on Rasmussen, though his job approval rating remains the same from yesterday (52/47%).

Rasmussen: Obama +5
Obama: 50% (+1)
Romney: 45% (no change)

Rasmussen w/ Leaners: Obama +4
Obama: 50% (no change)
Romney: 46% (-1)

Interestingly, the swing-state poll hasn't budged in 3 days, and still shows a tie with leaners. That may have something to do with the fact that those states are being bombarded w/ television ads.

Rasmussen swing state poll: Romney +1
Obama: 46% (no change)
Romey: 45% (no change)

Rasmussen swing-state w/ leaners: TIE
Obama: 47% (no change)
Romney: 47% (no change)

Obama appears to have maxed out on Gallup. His job approval rating also saw no change from yesterday (50-44%).

Gallup: Obama +5 w/ RVs
Obama: 49% (no change)
Romney: 44% (no change)

After stalling for 2 straight days at 47-43%, Obama gains another point on Romney with likely voters, with 4/4 days of this poll occurring after Obama's speech. So apparently, Ipsos isn't stopping yet (and hopefully they won't at all).

Ipsos (unless they're done tracking): Obama +5
Obama: 48% (+1)
Romney: 43% (no change)

So it appears this race has settled into roughly a 5 point Obama advantage. Which mean it's not over, but reason to be anxious.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama +5 in Rasmussen must be some sort of record.

[MorningInAmerica]

Obama +5 in Rasmussen must be some sort of record.

There was a time in February (during the heart of the Republican primary), where Obama consistently led Romney by 5-8 points, and even led by as much as 50-40% (on Feb. 10). The last time Obama led Romney by more than 5 points (excluding leaners), was March 17th, when Obama led 49-43%. So its been quite a while since Obama has seen this level of support on Ras. But he has been in a better position than he is right now.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_presidential_election_matchups2

[pa2011]

Appears the Gallup Tracking Poll has stabilized.  Obama 49 Romney 44, the same 5-point margin as yesterday.

[後援会]

Appears the Gallup Tracking Poll has stabilized.  Obama 49 Romney 44, the same 5-point margin as yesterday.

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I don't think it's updated yet...

[Umengus]

Obama should be down (2 p at least) tomorrow in the ras poll. If not, Romney in trouble...

[Likely Voter]

Reuters is out...here is daily summary for Monday:

Rasmussen (LV): Obama +5  
Obama     50 (+1)
Romney     45 (-)

Gallup (RV): Obama +5
Obama     49 (-)
Romney     44 (-)

Reuters/Ipsos (LV): Obama +5
Obama     48 (+1)
Romney     43 (-)

1 week ago

Rasmussen (LV): Romney +2
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     47 (-1)

Gallup (RV): Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

Reuters/Ipsos (LV): Romney +1 [Tuesday]
Obama  45
Romney 46


Avg 1 week change Obama +5.66

My thoughts:
Suspect today may be the peak of Obama's DNC bounce for the trackers

[Minnesota Mike]

Rand Tracker

Obama 48.48%
Romney 45.07%


https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

Internet poll with an interesting methodology.  Hard to take any poll that goes out to 100th's of a percent but FWIW Nate Silver does include them in his model.

[Sbane]

Nate apparently likes their methodology. It's definitely different but I can't say if it's correct.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Nate apparently likes their methodology. It's definitely different but I can't say if it's correct.

One definite advantage to it is that since they always poll the same people, it's probably far more accurate that most polls are in keeping track of the relative changes in the electorate.

[krazen1211]

Ras tracker: 48 45

[MorningInAmerica]

Rasmussen Tracker w/ leaners today:
Obama: 49% (-1)
Romney: 47% (+1)

Appears yesterday was the last day of the bounce on Rasmussen. We'll see if the same applies to Gallup and Reuters.

[Earthling]

Obamas approval ratings are still the same.
And he leads Romney in the swing states by 2 now.

[pa2011]

Obama moves up in Gallup Tracking Poll by 1 point.  Now leads 50 to 44, a one point gain over yesterday.

[Lief 🗽]

His approval/disapproval also got slightly better, 50 (nc) to 43 (-1).

[King]

Gallup

Obama 50% (+1)
Romney 44% (nc)

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

So, considering this, the PPP poll looks pretty accurate, and vice versa.

[Tender Branson]

This looks pretty much like 2008, just without the financial crash. So, basically 2004, just with Obama as Bush.