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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 309027 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« on: August 17, 2012, 12:21:00 PM »
Friday's tracking polls
Rasmussen    (8/14 - 8/16)
Obama    46.0    
Romney    45.0    

Gallup    (8/09 - 8/15)    
Obama    45.0
Romney    47.0

I week ago (before Ryan)
Rasmussen    
Obama    43.0    
Romney    47.0    

Gallup        
Obama    45.0
Romney    45.0    
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2012, 01:07:07 PM »
Saturday


Rasmussen: Obama +2    
Obama    46
Romney    44    (-1)

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2012, 07:12:07 PM »

So far there is really no evidence of a significant Ryan bounce.  Comparing just the two tracking polls to a week ago Romney is up 2 in Gallup but has dropped 5 in Rasmussen, so the net effect is a negative bounce. Nate Silver's analysis showed about a 0.8% bounce looking at all the state and tracking polls as of Thursday (it would be lower now due to Ras tracking).

We wont know for sure until before the RNC when we should see other polls out and we can compare to pre-Ryan
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2012, 08:15:01 PM »
bounce can only be tracked apples to apples. You are comparing the tracking polls to those other polls. But Obama was underwater in both tracking polls before Ryan, they were already polling  more pro Romney. As I said, we will know if he has a bounce when the other polls come in for comparison, but looking at JUST the tracking polls, Obama is up in one and down in the other. On average more up than down. That is just the facts.

really there just isn't enough data to determine a bounce yet.  What data there is (when you look at apples to apples state polls) shows a small bounce of less than 1% according to
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/aug-16-why-im-not-buying-the-romney-rally/

we will know more in a few days i suspect
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2012, 10:40:04 PM »
Romney was ahead in the Ras poll before Ryan announced and he is currently behind. Im not sure why this is hard to comprehend.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2012, 11:03:01 PM »
Quote from: MorningInAmerica on August 18, 2012, 10:45:13 PM
Quote from: MorningInAmerica on August 15, 2012, 04:08:59 PM
Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st.


What exactly is hard to comprehend about that?
Romney was polling at 46% the day Ryan was announced and he had a +2 over Obama. He now has a -2. Are you really arguing that Rasmussen is showing a Ryan bump?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2012, 12:31:51 PM »
My point was a brief one point bump in Rasmussen cant really be called a bounce of any sort. Taken together the two tracking polls average out to a negative bounce. But I dont believe that either. I just dont think there is enough data yet.

As for state poll data, that is also a mixed bag as noted by Nate Silver with some showing movement towards Romney and others the opposite. Including some of the purple polls showing up and others down.

As of now there simply isn't enough data to say if there is a real Ryan bump. The one exception is probably WI, which now appears to be more competitive. But in aggregate, what data there is shows something less than 1% for Ryan overall. Last week had very little polling released. I actually expect that there should be more polls in the next week and they will show something of a 1-2% bump. I just prefer to see more data before making a determination.

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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2012, 12:08:37 PM »
Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2012, 12:10:00 PM »
The Gallup national tracking is starting to get weird. It has never held stable like this for this long, while over the same one week period Obama's Gallup approval has ranged from even to -6.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2012, 03:26:28 PM »
Its amazingly flat at Gallup...its impressive hold for Romney.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2012, 12:24:14 PM »
« Edited: August 25, 2012, 01:46:58 PM by Legitimate Voter »
Thursday:

Rasmussen: tied  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     45 (-1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46 (+1)
Romney     46 (-1)

The Gallup flatline finally unflattens.  Could Akin actually be having an effect? We will see if this is a trend or blip
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2012, 12:18:59 PM »
Friday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1   
Obama     45
Romney     46 (+1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2012, 01:45:40 PM »
« Edited: August 25, 2012, 01:53:46 PM by Legitimate Voter »
Saturday:

Rasmussen: Obama +1  
Obama     46 (+1)
Romney     45 (-1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46



1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +2   
Obama    46
Romney    44   

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2012, 12:37:27 PM »
Sunday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2012, 12:02:43 PM »
Monday:

Rasmussen: Obama +3
Obama     47
Romney     44 (-1)

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47 (+1)
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2012, 12:20:58 PM »
Tuesday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47
Romney     45 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2012, 01:40:37 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2012, 11:29:35 AM by Legitimate Voter »
Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Obama +1
Obama     46 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     46 (-1)
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2012, 12:06:59 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2012, 04:44:47 PM by Legitimate Voter »
Thursday:

Rasmussen: tied
Obama     45 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

Ipsos/Reuters: Romney +2
Obama     42  (-1)
Romney     44  (+1)


afternoon edit, added Ipsos/Reuters
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2012, 04:21:28 PM »
is this an ongoing thing or will it stop at the end of the DNC?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2012, 04:40:29 PM »
we should probably add this to the national tracking poll thread
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2012, 12:23:40 PM »
« Edited: August 31, 2012, 12:35:59 PM by Legitimate Voter »
Friday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1
Obama     44 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46



1 week ago:

Rasmussen: Romney +1   
Obama     45
Romney     46

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2012, 06:02:52 PM »
I looked around and didnt find a number for today.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #22 on: August 31, 2012, 08:21:53 PM »
The only thing I found was this
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/31/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120831

The no headline number but says Romney is ahead by one point.
Quote
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Romney has improved his likability but still trails Obama in that and other metrics. He leads Obama in "would be an effective president"
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #23 on: August 31, 2012, 09:42:14 PM »
« Edited: September 01, 2012, 12:11:49 AM by Invisible Voter »
it is on the Ipsos site now

Day 5


LV: Romney +1
Obama: 43 (+1)
Romney: 44 (-)  

RV: Obama +3
Obama: 43  (+1)
Romney: 40 (+1)


Monday:


LV: Obama +4
Obama: 46
Romney: 42

RV: Obama +6
Obama: 45
Romney: 39




article: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5743

details: http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11913

attribute tracking charts: http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11914
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2012, 12:13:59 PM »
Saturday:

Rasmussen: Romney +3  
Obama     44
Romney     47 (+2)

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +1  
Obama     46
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46
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