National Tracking Poll Thread

[Skill and Chance]

Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls. 

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.  They  basically give a lower bound for Obama.  We need to wait for the media polls to fully judge the bounce.  On the left side of the spectrum, PPP apparently has better than 2008 numbers for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if Pew had something like Obama 56%/Romney 40% if they poll this week...

[Skill and Chance]

It's worth noting that Obama had overtaken McCain in the 2008 polling average 13 days after the end of the RNC.  That is the latest date that the national lead flipped in post-WWII history.  Obama is still moving slightly upward relative to the post-convention weekend and it has now been 17 days since the end of the DNC.

[Skill and Chance]

So the first data point to come in is a 2 point Romney bump with Obama retaining a lead (likely narrower among LV).  That lines up almost exactly with Bush 2004 and Nate Silver's regression.  If it happened across the board, it would also bring the race back in line with the economic models currently showing Obama by <1%.     

[Skill and Chance]

It's over.

Well it means yesterday had to be something like Romney +5.  Not over, but not good at all when you consider early voting.

[Skill and Chance]

It's over.

Huh?  We don't even know if these numbers are ephemeral or not.

Until now, there hasn't been a single case of a more than 4% bump in the polling averages all year long.  Why would there be another one this month?

[Skill and Chance]

IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.

[Skill and Chance]

Romney is going to take the lead in RCP for the first time.

Second time.  October 2011.

[Skill and Chance]

So Gallup had Obama polling better yesterday than last Tuesday before the debate?  And everyone else (pending RAND?) had a further Romney gain.  Last Tuesday must have been abnormally good for Romney on Gallup?

Also, I would expect tomorrow to be Romney's polling peak on the trackers.  Last Thursday-Friday, when he probably led by 6+ start falling off this weekend.

Obama got about 10-15 days out of "the 47%" so it will be interesting to see what things look like pre-debate next week.

[Skill and Chance]

So RAND, Reuters and IBD have the debate bounce fading, but Ras and Gallup have no change.  Interesting.

[Skill and Chance]

Gallup

Romney 50 (+2)

Obama 46 (-2)

Obama approval up to 49%A/45%D

[Skill and Chance]

Gallup

Romney 50 (+2)

Obama 46 (-2)

Obama approval up to 49%A/45%D

Tied 47/47.

I'd love to know what the RV is on this.

[Skill and Chance]

It's possible that Sunday/Monday was just epically good for Romney all around and that's what's driving the trackers.  Still, it doesn't look good for an Obama debate bounce.  3 out of 5 have Romney gaining slightly.  RAND looks good for Obama, but it's almost as far off in its own world as Gallup.

[Skill and Chance]

The states are coming more in line with a national tie now.  Others have said in the past that state polls lag national polls.  Maybe that is what is going on here. 

It does look like Obama got 1-1.5% out of the 2nd debate, but it's a far cry from the back to September margins some were predicting.

[Skill and Chance]

Lol, they are finding an electorate like 08.  I've been telling you your terrible three are skewing demographics to get their skewed turnout models, but oh no.  You'll see.

The last time I checked this country is more, not less diverse today than it was in 2008.

[Skill and Chance]

I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

And if that happens, it will be almost entirely because Akin and Mourdock didn't know when to stop talking...

[Skill and Chance]

I do think there is evidence of a small shift toward Obama.  Keep in mind that national numbers will under-represent the Northeast for the remainder of the campaign, and it is probably statistically significant.

[Skill and Chance]

Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

Movement toward Obama with NYC off the grid in the heart of the poll is pretty noteworthy.

[Skill and Chance]

Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

Movement toward Obama with NYC going off the grid in the heart of the poll is pretty noteworthy.

[Skill and Chance]

What you are missing is that Bloomberg will help in South Florida, and likely with the suburban moderates in NOVA and Denver as well.

[Skill and Chance]

What you are missing is that Bloomberg will help in South Florida, and likely with the suburban moderates in NOVA and Denver as well.

If he had made it about Israel, possibly, it would help in FL.  It was about global warming. 

Moderates in NOVA and Denver, only big environmentalists, and Obama has their vote already.

Educated suburban moderates almost universally accept climate change.  I'm surprised Obama hasn't campaigned on it at all in VA and CO.  It is an opportunity to make Romney look anti-science to people who might otherwise be R on fiscal issues.

[Skill and Chance]

To clarify, I mean campaigning on climate change i.e. bragging about what his EPA has done to control carbon emissions, not campaigning on the hurricane, which would be stupid and just plain wrong.

[Skill and Chance]

To clarify, I mean campaigning on climate change i.e. bragging about what his EPA has done to control carbon emissions, not campaigning on the hurricane, which would be stupid and just plain wrong.

That could lose him OH, and possibly VA.  He'd even be in danger in PA with that. 

There aren't that many coal miners in OH and VA.  I don't know about PA, maybe there are more.  Regardless, Democrats need to plan for coal towns to vote near unanimously R from now on.  They can make up those votes in the suburbs. 

[Skill and Chance]

Romney should be surging in these national polls with NYC going off the grid.  I am actually quite surprised that there is movement toward Obama when one of his best and most populated areas of the country can't or doesn't have time to answer the phone.

[Skill and Chance]

Remember the national polls are missing the Northeast right now.

not rand

Internet polls would be even more sensitive to a power outage than telephone polls. 

[Skill and Chance]

Remember the national polls are missing the Northeast right now.

not rand

Internet polls would be even more sensitive to a power outage than telephone polls. 

Not necessarily.  There are a lot of portable devices. 

And where, exactly, would NYC residents charge them?  The NYC area alone was probably responsible for 1-2% of Obama's national margin in 2008.  Romney should be soaring in national polls right now with so much of that area tragically off the grid.  I thought for sure that the polls still in the field this week would go Romney +3-5 nationally.  That has not happened.  They have moved marginally to Obama, suggesting a swing to him in the rest of the country that more than offsets the lack of NYC respondents.