National Tracking Poll Thread

[Likely Voter]

The post RNC polls have been a mixed bag with no consensus. There is some evidence of little or no bounce and some of a good sized bounce.

now that the DNC has started we may never really know. But it is clear that since pre-Ryan, the race has tightened to close to a tie. The challenge for the Dems is to use their convention to put things back the way they were in July/early August.

[pepper11]

But it is clear that since pre-Ryan, the race has tightened to close to a tie.

Which is ironic as there have been numerous mainstream articles stating what little bounce Ryan provided. It was little, but it was also permanent.

[Likely Voter]

permanent? Nothing is permanent.

[pepper11]

permanent? Nothing is permanent.

A month long bounce is not a bounce.

[MorningInAmerica]

Wednesday (9/5/12) update

Rasmussen : Romney +3
Romney: 48% (+1)
Obama: 45% (-)

Rasmussen swing-state poll: Romney +3
Romney 47% (+1)
Obama: 44% (-)

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama: 47% (-)
Romney: 46% (-)

Ipsos:

[Tender Branson]

Gallup is still 47-46 Obama. This doesn't move at all ...

[mondale84]

Wednesday (9/5/12) update

Rasmussen : Romney +3
Romney: 48% (+1)
Obama: 45% (-)

Rasmussen swing-state poll: Romney +3
Romney 47% (+1)
Obama: 44% (-)

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama: 47% (-)
Romney: 46% (-)

Ipsos:

This is bad news for Romney, considering he was leading by 4 in Rasmussen over the weekend...

[MorningInAmerica]

Ipsos #s just came in. Wonder if they'll try to act like Romney's still slipping?

Wednesday (9/5/12) update

Rasmussen : Romney +3
Romney: 48% (+1)
Obama: 45% (-)

Rasmussen swing-state poll: Romney +3
Romney 47% (+1)
Obama: 44% (-)

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama: 47% (-)
Romney: 46% (-)

Ipsos: Romney +2
Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 46% (-)

[MorningInAmerica]

Day 10 update (Wednesday)

Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 46% (-)

On Monday before the RNC, Obama led 46-42%.

No link yet. It was just tweeted by a Reuters reporter.

[Tender Branson]

Day 10 update (Wednesday)

Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 45% (-)

On Monday before the RNC, Obama led 46-42%.

No link yet. It was just tweeted by a Reuters reporter.

It's actually -1 for both of them.

[MorningInAmerica]

Day 10 update (Wednesday)

Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 45% (-)

On Monday before the RNC, Obama led 46-42%.

No link yet. It was just tweeted by a Reuters reporter.

It's actually -1 for both of them.

I actually made a mistake. Romney should be at 46%, not 45%. Romney is unchanged from yesterday, Obama down one.

[MorningInAmerica]

Thursday update 9/6/12 - NO BOUNCE from Rasmussen, Gallup ... YET.

With one night of Rasmussen's surveys being taken AFTER the Michelle Obama speech, Rasmussen finds Romney maintaining his 3 point lead over Obama from yesterday, while with leaners included, Romney moves into a 4 point lead.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 47% (-1)

Rasmussen w/ leaners: Romney +4
Obama: 45% (-2)
Romney: 49% (-)

Rasmussen daily swing-state vote: Romney +4
Romney: 47% (-)
Obama: 43% (-1)

With 1/5 of Gallup's surveys being taken AFTER the Michelle Obama speech, there is no bounce in terms of the horserace yet, though Obama's job approval rating has rebounded to 49/45%

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama: 47& (-)
Romney: 46% (-)

With 1/4 of Reuters surveys being taken AFTER the Michelle Obama speech, there could be a slight bounce in Obama's favor, given that yesterday, when 4/4 of the survey nights were conducted before the start of the DNC, Romney led 46-44%. Could also just be noise.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/06/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88513B20120906

Ipsos: Romney +1
Obama: 44% (-)
Romney: 45% (-1)

[J. J.]

Thursday update 9/6/12 - NO BOUNCE from Rasmussen, YET.

With one night of Rasmussen's surveys being taken AFTER the Michelle Obama speech, Rasmussen finds Romney maintaining his 3 point lead over Obama from yesterday, while with leaners included, Romney moves into a 4 point lead.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 47% (-1)

Rasmussen w/ leaners: Romney +4
Obama: 45% (-2)
Romney: 49% (-)

Gallup:

Ipsos:

I wouldn't look for a bounce on Rasmussen until at least tomorrow or Saturday, at the earliest.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The Rasmussen bounce came from fiddling with the party IDs. Until they're changed back, of course Romney's bounce won't dissipate.

[Lief 🗽]

Also a lot of a convention bounce comes for increased base enthusiasm, which doesn't show up if you weigh by party ID like Rasmussen does (not even taking into account how ridiculous his current party ID weightings are...).

[J. J.]

The Rasmussen bounce came from fiddling with the party IDs. Until they're changed back, of course Romney's bounce won't dissipate.

I think he's talking about a Democratic bounce (which probably won't show up until the weekend).

[後援会]

Also a lot of a convention bounce comes for increased base enthusiasm, which doesn't show up if you weigh by party ID like Rasmussen does (not even taking into account how ridiculous his current party ID weightings are...).

While Rasmussen's local polling has been funky (during the midterm elections), his party ID has actually been correct in 2008 and 2010. In 2008, he had Dems up 41-33 when they won 39-32. In 2010, he had them died at 35, which was what happened.

[Likely Voter]

The gallup horserace number has been surprisingly steady for the last month. It has held between Romney+1 to Obama+1 for a month.

[MorningInAmerica]

Day 10 update (Thursday)

Obama: 44% (-)
Romney: 45% (-1)

This tracking poll is reported on a four day rolling average. So that means 1/4 of the survey was conducted after Michelle Obama's speech on Tuesday night. This 1 point could be a slight bump in Obama's favor due to the speech, or statistical noise. No link yet. It was just tweeted by a Reuters reporter.

Edited...link added. Reuters spinning it as no bounce for Obama. Apparently some internet interviews were conducted during the day on Wednesday. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/06/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88513B20120906

[Tender Branson]

The Obama-bounce will not show up fully until next Tuesday or Wednesday, when people read about the convention or saw it on TV over the weekend. Because now they have to work.

And keep in mind that in the trackers, Clinton's speech was not yet covered. Interviewing takes place usually from 4pm to 9pm and Clinton spoke after that.

[Tender Branson]

I've also merged the Ipsos Tracker with this thread now.

[Tender Branson]

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?

When they started there were more Democrats in the sample, now there are much less.

Also, Obama is 1 point ahead among Independents in the latest tracking release.

[J. J.]

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack.

No, but there is a corollary to the first rule:

Corollary to J. J.’s First Rule of Elections:  Never trust just one poll.  Trust several and remember that the electorate changes its mind quickly.

[MorningInAmerica]

Friday Update

Rasmussen is showing the beginnings of a bump, with 2/3 nights in the survey coming after the Michelle speech, and 1/3 coming after Clinton's speech.

Rasmussen: Romney +1
Obama: 45% (+1)
Romney: 46% (-1)

Rasmussen w/ leaners: Romney +1
Obama: 46%
Romney: 47%

Rasmussen Swing-State poll w/ leaners: Romney +2
Obama: 46%
Romney: 48%

Gallup is definitely measuring a bump today, given that obama's job rating is up to 52/43%, and the horse race has been a 1 point race for about 1 month. Important to remember though that Gallup is the only of the tracking polls still using registered voters. Ipsos and Rasmussen use likely voters.

Gallup: Obama +3
Obama: 48% (+1)
Romney - 45% (-1)

Reuters/Ipsos is also seeing what they believe is the beginning of a bounce. http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5758

Ipsos: Obama +2
Obama: 46% (+2)
Romney: 44% (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen is showing the beginnings of a bump, with 2/3 nights in the survey coming after the Michelle and Clinton speeches.

No. 2/3 of the interviews were done before Clinton spoke, as Rasmussen says in their release.

Which makes sense, because pollsters interview up until 9pm usually and Clinton spoke after that.

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