National Tracking Poll Thread

[pepper11]

The Eastwood bump.

[pepper11]

The height of Romney's convention bounce should be around now:

Mid week is more like it.  You still have samples from Wednesday afternnoon in the numbers.

This is a dangerous game you're playing J.J.  You could just accept a 1 point bounce for Romney at his weekend.  Saying this and you run the risk of the DNC going over well and Romney's midweek bounce being Obama +2.

Accept a 1 point bounce?

Gallup: -1
Ras: + 5
Ipsos: + 6

That would be a 3.3 point bounce.

[pepper11]

But it is clear that since pre-Ryan, the race has tightened to close to a tie.

Which is ironic as there have been numerous mainstream articles stating what little bounce Ryan provided. It was little, but it was also permanent.

[pepper11]

permanent? Nothing is permanent.

A month long bounce is not a bounce.

[pepper11]

I would like Gallup to switch over to likely voters. We are getting to the point where registered voter polls don't tell us much.

I am pretty sure the approval is adults and the tracking poll is registered votes.

[pepper11]

Reuters

Obama-48
Romney-41

Is this the tracker?

[pepper11]

Gallup

O 49 (-1)
R 46 (+1)

Bouncing continues.

[pepper11]

Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

[pepper11]

Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

Pretty much none of the other polls corroborate this supposed bounce. Taking the Gallup poll at face value is nothing more than hackery.

538 went toward Romney yesterday and its going to do the same today. Only hackery here is denial of the polls.

[pepper11]

No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.

Maybe Silver said something different in his blog but the graph for the EV clearly shows small upward movement for Romney and downward movement for Obama. My mistake if it did.

[pepper11]

The debate bounce is sweeping across the country. I invite my Romney-supporting friends to jump aboard the Obama Train before it's too late!

State polling disagrees.

[pepper11]

Ras swing state tracker:

Romney 50 (+1)
Obama 45 (-1)


Dominating.

Not sure if it's the republicans who are delusional about their candidate winning.

[pepper11]

THis is interesting

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So is Romney ahead the new normal with Obama getting little bumps from the last two debates? or has Obama turned it around?

PPPs cryptic messages are annoying. One night for one of the 10 trackers need not be all that dramatic.

[pepper11]

Gallup remains the outlier.

O +6, O +2, O +1, O+1, TIED, R + 1, R + 3, R + 5

You did not take statistics.

[pepper11]

Why do the Dems on this board laugh at any poll that goes to two decimal points but treat Rand as a great pollster.

[pepper11]

Good stuff.

You do realize this poll shows Romney narrowing the gap right? Not sure how that is good news for ya.

[pepper11]

Good stuff.

You do realize this poll shows Romney narrowing the gap right? Not sure how that is good news for ya.

Obama remains steady at 50%......that is good news.

OK . Fair point, I'd rather it be flipped. Still not sure it is great news for the prez.