Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 

[jaichind]

Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 

Does the no confidence motion need a majority of all MPs to carry or just a relative plurality over votes against the motion.  It seems PP can really only count on its own MPs to vote against the motion.   The rest will be a combination of for or abstain but it seems hard to see how PP wins this if the rules say that a relative plurality is enough for the motion to carry.   

On snap election why would that not be a done deal unless PP will back a PSOE administration if the motion carries ?

[Velasco]

And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.

Election time, baby!

Also the “Cs = right-wing nationalists” meme is getting old

Its not a meme, but a simple fact. Facts do not get old.

Oranges didn't file a motion for two reasons: 1) they don't have enough seats 2) that's not their strategy

Cs is asking Mr Rajoy to resign and call elections "within a few weeks", in order to close proceedings concerning the budget and (more importantly) to extend the implementation of article 155 (direct rule) un Catalonia. Cs has a tougher stance than PP in that regard and demands the intervention of central government in regional televisión (TV3, allegedly It has a strong pro-independence bias).

In case Mariano Rajoy doesn't resign within that period of time, Cs could consider to "promote" or "support" a motion of no confidence providing that elections are called immediately.

Also, Cs asked Pedro Sánchez to withdraw his motion in order that Mr Rajoy can resign.

Oranges are unwilling to help Mr Sánchez in his attempt to reach premiership on the backs of"populists" (Podemos) and "separatists" (Catalan nationalists).

As for the"right-wing nationalist meme". Oranges are not as radical as Fidesz or the Austrian 'liberals'. However, the staging of their weekend event suggests that they have more things incommon with Berlusconi's populism than with Macron's "civil patriotism".

[TheSaint250]

I guess I fail to see how a party dedicated to liberal values, economic liberalism, etc. is comparable to the likes of Marine Le Pen.

[jeron]

Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 

Cs won’t support the no confidence vote so it will all depend on PNV (again)

[Velasco]

I guess I fail to see how a party dedicated to liberal values, economic liberalism, etc. is comparable to the likes of Marine Le Pen.

Cs is not comparable with the likes of Le Pen. I said that they are not radical right-eingers like Fidesz or the Austrian party. Cs is neither xenophobic nor anti-immigration. However, besides liberal values (debatable) and economic liberalism, many people see nationalist and populist elements in them (Berlusconi style). Cs is much of a catch-all-party that appeals to the Spanish national pride and  confronts peripheral nationalism.

Keep in mind that, with regard yo national emblems like the flag and the anthem, the attitude of Spanish people is different from other countries. Due to historical reasons (Franco's regime was nationalistic and appropiated the emblems) and the existence of different national sensibilities within Spain (Basque, Catalan, etc), the national flag and the anthem are not elements of cohesion. In countries like France or the USA it's possible to build national consensus around national emblems. That is not possible in Spain.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Worth noting that Fidesz itself started a liberal group of students (funded by Soros, no less) before it took the reigns of power.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1000825932486148096



PP way down, if these numbers are accurate, then a C's-PSOE govt will be formed in the event of a snap election...

[Former President tack50]

To be fair, El Español-Sociométrica is quite a PP-unfriendly pollster (to the point where they are the only ones that give Vox seats).

Another poll today, this time by NC Report-La Razón shows a radically different picture.



However, NC Report did its interviews until the 25th of May, which means that the most recient events like the no confidence proposal were not captured. El Español polled for 1 more day (until the 26th) and claim that of the 1700 interviews, 300 happened after the no confidence vote was proposed.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. PP has certainly lost the 2nd place spot to PSOE by now, but is probably ahead of Podemos.

Also, sidenote:

Iglesias and Montero have won their internal referendum. Turnout was extremely high (180 000 people), the highest in Podemos history. They won the referendum 68-32%. So, higher than the 2017 primary when he only got 55%, but still low especially since a chunk of the vote happened after the no confidence vote and the Gürtel ruling. I'd say that if Podemos gets a bad result, Iglesias should retire

[seb_pard]

The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?

[Former President tack50]

The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?

EH Bildu would certainly benefit the most. Maybe PSOE or Podemos also rise a bit but unlikely.

However Urkullu is definitely not losing the election. Current regional Basque polls are predicting PNV going up, not down. I guess it might stall PNV's momentum and bring them back to their 2016 results at worst.

Keep in mind that PNV has been in power every time except for the short 2009-2012 PSOE government propped up by PP, and the 2009 election was already controversial sincer Batasuna and their fake "totally not Batasuna" replacements were banned. PNV is a very flexible party, they have done deals with basically everyone in the Basque parliament, from Bildu (or Batasuna back in the day) to PP, to PSOE and IU

In any case, the next Basque election is not due until late 2020 so it's too early to talk about that.

And I wouldn't be so sure that it depends on PNV. The Catalan nationalists (especially PDECat apparently) are also not very happy with voting for Sánchez. I could see a scenario where the no confidence motion is completely derailed and only PSOE and Podemos vote in favour!

It would still be the most successful no confidence vote in Spanish history though. 156 votes in favour. The current record is the 1980 one against Suárez (152 in favour)

[seb_pard]

The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?

EH Bildu would certainly benefit the most. Maybe PSOE or Podemos also rise a bit but unlikely.

However Urkullu is definitely not losing the election. Current regional Basque polls are predicting PNV going up, not down. I guess it might stall PNV's momentum and bring them back to their 2016 results at worst.

Keep in mind that PNV has been in power every time except for the short 2009-2012 PSOE government propped up by PP, and the 2009 election was already controversial sincer Batasuna and their fake "totally not Batasuna" replacements were banned. PNV is a very flexible party, they have done deals with basically everyone in the Basque parliament, from Bildu (or Batasuna back in the day) to PP, to PSOE and IU

In any case, the next Basque election is not due until late 2020 so it's too early to talk about that.

And I wouldn't be so sure that it depends on PNV. The Catalan nationalists (especially PDECat apparently) are also not very happy with voting for Sánchez. I could see a scenario where the no confidence motion is completely derailed and only PSOE and Podemos vote in favour!

It would still be the most successful no confidence vote in Spanish history though. 156 votes in favour. The current record is the 1980 one against Suárez (152 in favour)

Thanks for the answer, it's pretty amazing that party, I think it's by far the most politically successful (and skillful) of Spanish politics (although I hate their approach to politics).

Although I disagree on PdCat, from what I read, although some parts of JuntsxCat (the Puigdemont faction) wouldn't vote for Sanchez, the people from PdCat who are in Spanish congress don't have too much problems supporting the no confidence motion. Probably they could demand some symbolic thing (maybe apologizing to Torrant about calling him Nazi or some promise about the 155) but they could not put too much pressure on Sanchez.

So you think the no confidence motion will not pass?

[jaichind]

Rivera tells EL Mundo that fefore discussing possible support for Socialist party’s no-confidence motion against Rajoy, it would be necessary to discuss other issues including extension of direct rule of central government in Catalonia. He said it is also key to guarantee that budget bill is passed in Senate
Once those two issues are guaranteed, then Rajoy should call elections.  Should Rajoy refuse to call elections, Ciudadanos will demand Socialists withdraw their motion and submit a new joint non-confidence motion aimed at calling elections.

[Ethelberth]

What are the basic differences between PP and Ciudanos voters? I mean, after CC spilled out of Barcelona and some bigger cities.

[Former President tack50]

Thanks for the answer, it's pretty amazing that party, I think it's by far the most politically successful (and skillful) of Spanish politics (although I hate their approach to politics).

Although I disagree on PdCat, from what I read, although some parts of JuntsxCat (the Puigdemont faction) wouldn't vote for Sanchez, the people from PdCat who are in Spanish congress don't have too much problems supporting the no confidence motion. Probably they could demand some symbolic thing (maybe apologizing to Torrant about calling him Nazi or some promise about the 155) but they could not put too much pressure on Sanchez.

So you think the no confidence motion will not pass?

Yes, there's quite a split between the Puigdemont linked independents and PDECat proper inside PDECat. And I guess ERC is also somewhat divided. But I don't think Sánchez even wants symbolic concessions.

I personally think there's roughly a 50-50 chance of the no confidence vote being successful.Really the only locked votes thus far are:

Yes

PSOE: 84 (duh)
Podemos: 67
Compromís: 4
NCa: 1

No

PP: 134 (duh)
UPN: 2
Foro Asturias: 1
CC: 1

So it's all in the hands of Cs, PNV and to a lesser extent the Catalan nationalists. Bildu is irrelevant. And they seem to want opposite things; PNV is scared of a new election as Cs will be the likely winner and they are a lot harsher on peripheral nationalism than PP and Rajoy while Cs wants one.

[Former President tack50]

What are the basic differences between PP and Ciudanos voters? I mean, after CC spilled out of Barcelona and some bigger cities.

According to the latest CIS poll (April 2018):

Cs performs much better among men than women, PP performs slightly better among women than men

PP voters skew very old, Cs voters are more dispersed by age but with a peak in the middle age vote

PP performs better in rural areas, Cs performs better in suburbs and urban areas

PP performs better among people with no studies or only primary school (which then again, skew older so it's probably a function of age). Cs performs better among people with higher studies.

PP performs better than Cs among retired people, "stay at home mums" and ties among farm workers. Cs performs better than PP among all other socioeconomic groups, but the best results for Cs are among small businessmen, administrative and service personnel, and students

PP beats Cs in the "Old middle class" vote. However, Cs wins easily among the "upper class" and the "new middle class" vote.

[Lumine]

The debate for the motion of no confidence is set for May 31st and June 1st.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apparently Iglesias is planning to submit his own no confidence motion if Sánchez’s fails, basically a Cs-style motion with a figurehead president and immediate elections. Hopefully he’ll get Cs and the PSOE on board with it (but definitely not the PNV). https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-dispuesto-impulsar-elecciones-PSOE_0_776572979.amp.html

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1001828611433910272

Entirely in the field post-Confidence motions.

[TheSaint250]

Is it likely that Cs's lead declines during the campaign if a new general election is called?

[Former President tack50]

Way too hard to tell. Cs' 2015 campaign was a trainwreck. 2016 was better but still not good.

So far it seems that Cs is bad at running campaigns. However their 2017 Catalan election campaign was really good, basically rallying all unionists behind them. But a Catalan election is very different from a general election.

In my opinion trying to predict how the campaign will go is impossible.

[EPG]

I can't think of many other campaigns with so much evidence that four parties vied for first place. Maybe the last French first round?

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez: "Resign, Mr Rajoy. Resign and this motion ends here and now (...) Your time is over"

[Ethelberth]

What are the basic differences between PP and Ciudanos voters? I mean, after CC spilled out of Barcelona and some bigger cities.

According to the latest CIS poll (April 2018):

Cs performs much better among men than women, PP performs slightly better among women than men

PP voters skew very old, Cs voters are more dispersed by age but with a peak in the middle age vote

PP performs better in rural areas, Cs performs better in suburbs and urban areas

PP performs better among people with no studies or only primary school (which then again, skew older so it's probably a function of age). Cs performs better among people with higher studies.

PP performs better than Cs among retired people, "stay at home mums" and ties among farm workers. Cs performs better than PP among all other socioeconomic groups, but the best results for Cs are among small businessmen, administrative and service personnel, and students

PP beats Cs in the "Old middle class" vote. However, Cs wins easily among the "upper class" and the "new middle class" vote.

So basically, PP is party for Opus Dei members and Ciudanos for Real Madrid fans.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why does PP do better among women?