2023 UK Local Elections

[Oryxslayer]

If they lose 2000 seats, the only conclusion we can draw is that the Tories are heading towards an extinction level event. (I.e. don't get your hopes up).

For the Tories to lose closer to 2000 than 1000, they need to first get swept in most of the councils which you would expect an opposition party, of any color, to do well. Then they need to start losing largr numbers of seats in thr councils where there is no opposition, to either Indies or new localists.  While there are a few places the local Tories have shat the bed and one can expect a sweep, I don't think either of the two prerequisites can be met widely enough to get us even close to that spin number of 2k.

It's also weird how much we focus on the numbers when everyone always gets pulled in by the shiny lights e.g those councils who declare first.

It's also interesting that the number is what matters,  when the overall labels of majority,  minority,  and NOC are right there to measure changes in control.  This likely won't be any better for the Conservatives at all, like 1/3 of councils could go from Tory administrations to something new form of control, but it should be a more conveyable headline then raw councillors.

To be fair, the issue last time wasn't that the early results were deceptively good for the Tories - they were rubbish, and their actual good results mostly trickled in late on Friday. The issue was that the media fell for very obvious lies.

Three things are crucially different than last time.

One, the results are all expected within 24 hours so there's no hiding behind the schedule, which is what the Tories did in 2022. The national environment was close enough that there were variations in direction of travel and the degrees of it, especially when we talk about London vs like the early reporting NE.

Two, the polling is such that the Tories should be net losing everywhere that doesn't have overwhelming local issues like Leicester. We'll be able to get a read on how big the losses therefore from measuring certain early councils to expectations.  Is there a sweep in Sunderland,  and if not who held on? Were Basildon and Brentwood interesting even though the maps there are good for the Tories? Did Labour gain off the three-way fight Portsmouth? Are Labour the largest party  in Reddich or Hartlepool? Just how bad was Thurrock for the Conservatives after all the financial mismanagement? And did Harlow fall despite Labour needing to win every seat up? All good benchmarks.

Three, the wider population is guaranteed to forget about them very quickly no matter the outcome,  even if those politically invested do not. Coronation coverage is to extraordinary to ignore.

[Oryxslayer]

A couple sentences on each of the councils which could be interesting tomorrow, not including the places where localists significantly obscure the outcome. Data and analysis comes from a mixture of New Statesman's councilor election maps, GIS analysis, and research. Reminder, swings can vary from place to place, even with some areas bucking the trend depending on local issues and situations. A lot of places were last up in 2019, but a lot more were not thanks to council redistricting putting everyone on the same ballot.

That 2019 comparison has seemingly messed with some analysis, because polling during the final days of May's government was bad for both Labour and Conservatives. But in the locals that ensued Labour was in an analytically bad position: both parties lost voters to Remain-focused Lib-Dems and Greens, but the lack of similar hyper-Leave Brexit Party candidates meant the Tories were the next best option in specific councils. So when someone says the Tories now have similar polling to 2019, that conflates the local and national, ignores how coalitions have shifted in the chaotic four years, and ignores how Labour is much higher than the Tories cause they are winning comparable numbers of Tory voters to those in 2019 who opted for a hard-remain or hard-Leave party.

Finally, a note that Labours gains with voters while immense enough to be felt significantly everywhere, are most acute in “commuterville” towns, cities, and suburbs according to polling. This is not at all "blue wall" territory, I think the best indicator is that these are places Blair won but the previous 15 years have seen some shift more in Labour's favor and some slip from safe to competitive territory.

Councils are ordered by expected count times (seats up in staggered term councils):

1:30 - Basildon: 25 (7) Con – 10 (6) Lab – 2 Others – 5 (1) Indies. 2019 here was Labour’s good year, and they won most of the urban area. This council will be a good early indicator of just how strong Labour’s polling is. Previous results say there is little room for growth from 2019, but an anti-tory wave could throw the council to NOC.

1:30 Harlow: 20 Con (4) – 13 Lab (7). Labour got swept here in 2021, seemingly locking in Tory government. Labour would need a full sweep of this class to take control, but they could theoretically get it thanks not just to the favorable national situation, but also thanks to striking local government employees. If Labour does make notable gains here, it will be a favorable portent, and this council serves as a good indicator of just how good Labour are doing,

1:30 Hartlepool: 15 (4) Con – 12 (4) Lab – 2 Others (1) – 7 (3) Indies. Redistricting happened in 2021 which allowed the Conservatives to defeat many pro-leave independents elected after Brexit. While a member of the localist group has led the council the government is Tory-Backed. Labour held up well in 2022, despite the by-election organization built in the preceding year, and have convinced some elected Indies to run for them. Local Labour believe they could sweep the available seats for a majority…

1:30 Sunderland: 43 Lab (13) – 15 (5) Con – 14 (5) LD – 1 RefUK – 2 Indies (2). (1 Lab seat delayed because of candidate death) Sunderland Labour had a horrible reputation several years ago, which gradually led to them losing wards to many parties. However, in 2022 Labour defied expectations and avoided the degradation which would have sent the council to NOC. Now the opposition – particularly the local Tories – are also in turmoil and the Lib-Dems expect to lead the opposition. Polling would suggest a near-sweep, but the opposition has locked down some wards, and Labour’s lingering reputation may act as a ceiling…

2:00 Brentwood: 20 Con (7) – 14 LD (5) – 2 Lab (1) – 1 Indie. Theoretically, should be safe for the Tories since most of the seats up were easily won in the past. However, if there is an anti-Conservative wave and tactical voting then we should expect Lib-Dem gains and a potential flip...

2:00 Portsmouth: 17 LD (6) – 13 Con (6) – 6 Lab (1) – 3 Others – 3 Indie (1). In 2022 the Conservatives got swept out of their traditional wards in the north of the city, and retiring councilors plus the national environment suggest this could happen again. The Lib-Dems are hoping to win a majority, but Labour was the beneficiary of conservative decline in 2022.

2:00 Reddich: 19 Con (7) – 8 Lab (1) – 1 Green (1) – 1 Indie (1). Reddich was a Labour council for most of the last two decades, but they collapsed after Brexit. This though has led to Tory overexposure, so Labour expect gains.

2:00 Thurrock: 29 Con ( 8 ) – 14 Lab (4) – 3 Other (3) -3 Indies (1). Among the most deprived areas in the country, Thurrock had a large Brexit vote percentage, and then a Tory surge in the last two years –magnified by former UKIP councilor defections. However, the incumbents have fallen into an economic pit through financial mismanagement and bad investments – a situation so bad that they called for outside national assistance. An anti-incumbent anti-incompetence wave combined with the national political environment does offer Labour the outside potential of a complete sweep and majority government…

2:30 North East Lincolnshire: 30 Con (10) – 8 Lab (4) – 3 LD (1) – 1 Indie. The Tories are dominant in Grimsby’s council – they would have to lose every one of their seats up to lose control. National prognosticators are seemingly fixated on this council, but residents bemoan the state of local Labour. A good bellwether on not just the size of the Labour swings, but additionally if it can overcome poor local conditions.

2:45 Hull: 29 LD ( 8 ) – 27 Lab (11) – 1 Indie (1). For many years now Hull has been a two-way fight without the Conservatives, though Labour stayed on top of the Lib-Dems until 2022. Will the national environment bring Labour gains, or with the lack of Conservatives insolate Hull from the national mood?

2:45 Worcester: 15 Con (7) – 12 (4) Lab – 6 (1) Green – 2 LD. The best year recently for Conservatives was the now-up class of 2019. 3 of their 7 seats up were won by other parties last year, and Labour are targeting additional previously close wards. The Tories seem poised to lose their position as largest party and leadership.

3:00 North Lincolnshire: 27 Con – 15 Lab – 1 Indie. The topline numbers obscure just how heavy of a lift this will be for Labour to flip. Sculthorpe is almost entirely Labour, and the rest of the rural council area has large Tory majorities. Even though redistricting theoretically gives Labour a few more targets, and the seats Labour has lost in the city should be won back, getting the remaining handful needed for control will be difficult.

3:00 Peterborough: 28 Con (6) – 14 Lab (6) – 8 LD (4) – 4 Green (3) – 4 Others (1) – 1 Indie (1). The Tories have been the largest party and led Peterborough for 20 years. The former is very unlikely to change, but the latter might. The local Labour party though has seen councilors defect to the Greens, so this may be a place where the national environment bails out the ‘progressive opposition.’

3:30 Cotswold: 18 LD – 14 Con – 1 Green – 1 Indie. This once-misrun Tory council finally fell to the Lib-Dems in 2019, but now the Tories are trying to take it back. The Lib-Dems though are aiming for gains to strengthen control.  

3:30 Dudley: 45 Con (13) – 25 Lab (11) – 2 indies. 2022 and 2019 were decent for Dudley Labour, but 2021 was a Tory wave that gave Conservatives control. A reverse wave would return Labour to power in this GE battleground.
  
4:00 Bolton: 23 Con – 19 Lab – 5 LD – 11 Others in 6(!) groups – 2 Indies. Perhaps the most interesting council up in 2023. Bolton has been the home of fractured localist groups, a feature that really took off after the local UKIP collapsed. The Tories have held a minority govt here since 2019. Importantly, redistricting has put all 60 councilors up for election in a national environment that is the opposite of 2021. The 2022 locals weren’t good for the small groups – will Labour’s national lead finally wipe them all aside…

4:00 Plymouth: 25 Lab ( 8 ) – 23 (6) Con – 3 Green (1) – 5 Others (3) – 1 Indie (1). The Plymouth Tories are in trouble. Recent defections over policy and reselection have created a localist group. The Conservatives lost two by-elections earlier this year. These losses made Labour the largest group, but the Conservatives continued to have their minority administration for the last few months…until the trees fell. Cutting down old trees in public places historically dooms upon local councils of all colors. This may be a case where the local Conservatives lose everywhere…

4:00 Southend-on-Sea: 21 Con (4) – 15 Lab (5) – 6 LD (3) – 7 Others in 2 Groups (3) – 2 Indies (2). Southend is the first of what I will call the “Thames battlegrounds.” These are places where Labour has seemingly fallen in political relevance nationally in the last decade but held up or gained locally during the same period. These additionally are areas where the national polling would point towards significant voter flips from the Tories rather than just enthusiasm gaps. Southend specifically is governed by a Labour + Lib-Dem + Localist coalition, the first non-Tory government in a very long time. 2022 results point towards more Conservative losses, but a sweep of their present allies is needed if Labour is to become the largest or majority party.  

4:30 Dacorum: 31 Con – 19 LD – 1 Indie. Lib-Dem success in surrounding councils has put Dacorum on their target list of suburban target councils. 25 years of Tory rule potentially come to an end if they flip it. This was quite literally the place where Davey launched their campaign by driving through those “blue wall” hay bales.

6:00 South Gloucestershire: 33 Con – 17 LD – 11 Lab. Mathematically, the Conservatives should be unable to retain control here when facing national backlash. But the council’s new leading party remains an open question. The Lib Dems have reliable strongholds in the Yate region, but there are more than enough Labour-Conservative marginal wards that could flip in Suburban Bristol.

6:00 Stoke-on-Trent: 22 Con – 13 Lab – 6 Others – 3 Indies. The Potteries have new districts. Currently the Conservatives have governed with help (and defections) from the localist groups. Labour are expecting to do well in a city with a long history of support. National Labour figures have called this their “Number 1 target” and resources have been poured in, though the Tories have not written the council off and are defending it with similar vigor.  

6:30 Medway: 32 Con – 21 Lab – 2 Indie. Another Thames battleground that Labour needs to win nationally at a GE. Labour have climbed into a strong position via recent results and the ward boundaries have been redistricted…

Gap as Overnight Councils finish and Friday Counts Begin

12:30 Worthing: 22 Lab (5) – 13 Con (5) – 1 LD (1). Labour gained Worthing for the first time ever in 2022, and the Tories aren’t likely to get it back. Past results suggest more Labour gains.

13:00 Cannock Chase: 22 Con ( 8 ) – 12 Lab (4) – 2 LD (1)– 2 Green (2) – 2 Other (2) – 1 Indie. The Tories swept the council in 2021 giving them a majority. However, Labour rebounded here thanks to by-election gains and defections, Additionally, the 2019 intake of Greens have fallen to infighting, so they could see a wipeout

13:00 Solihull: 28 Con ( 8 ) – 14 Green (5) – 5 LD (2) – 4 (2) Indies. Labour has no presence in here after their handful of councilors defected. The Greens in particular keep targeting this suburb to potentially deny the Tories their majority. Perhaps an anti-Tory atmosphere is what the local Greens need…

13:00 Stratford-on-Avon: 19 Con – 11 LD – 1 Green – 5 Indies. Council size to be increased by 5. This is usually safe Conservative territory. It bears interest though because redistricting has put everyone up for reelection when the Tories are facing significant headwinds, and much of the council is within Nadhim Zahawi’s constituency. Voter backlash to his actions could influence the outcome.

13:30 Burnley: 18 Lab (6) – 8 Con (2) – 8 LD (3) – 6 Green (1) – 5 Others (3). Labour have governed here for a decade. 2019 was actually a bad year comparatively for both Labour and the Conservatives. Gains for the former are possible, but they would have to come from the minor parties.

13:30 Maidstone: 28 Con (9) – 12 LD (5) – 5 Lab (1) – 1 Green – 9 Others (3). The Tories seem poised to lose majority control to NOC, but serious losses would need to occur for a non-Conservative government.

13:30 Walsall: 37 Con (13) – 22 (7) Lab – 1 Indie. Labour barely won the popular vote here in 2022, but could not register significant gains. Can they flip seats this year in this GE battleground?

14:00 Crawley: 18 Lab (7) – 17 Con (6). Labour gained control here in 2022 by a knifes edge result, so it is obviously a Tory target. However, the national political environment makes it easier for Labour to continue their advances.

14:00 Hyndburn: 16 Con (4) – 14 Lab (4) –2 Green – 5 (4) Indies. Labour’s overall total here is artificially lowered since all the Independents and Greens are defectors who have left the party. This includes the council leader. Labour will probably win an effective majority here through reabsorbing the independent wards.

14:00 Rugby: 23 Con ( 8 ) – 10 Lab (3)– 9 LD (3). This council is getting national notice as a battleground, especially after YouGov had it in their MRP, but it’s hard to see it shifting that far, Half the Tory seats are safe and rural.

14:00 Warwick: 16 Con – 9 LD – 8 Green – 5 Lab – 3 Others – 3 Indies. No party is going to win a majority in Warwick. The Incumbent Conservative’s theoretically could, but realistically they are expecting losses in the city and to be boxed out of government.

14:00 Welwyn Hatfield: 26 Con ( 8 ) – 12 LD (4) – 10 (4) Lab. The Conservatives swept the council in 2021. In 2022 they got swept by both opposition parties and almost lost control. It’s an open race for second place and council  leadership if 2023 resembles 2022.

14:30 Blackpool: 20 Lab – 13 Con – 3 Others – 6 indies. Labour won a bare majority here in 2019 but lost it to expulsions and defections. Local Labour expect to make more than enough gains to sure that majority once more.

14:30 East Cambridgeshire: 16 Con – 10 LD – 2 Indie.  The Lib-Dems made massive gains here in 2019, going from 2 seats to threatening the majority. However, they fell back in by-elections and defections. With all the coalition changes since then though the Lib-Dems are targeting a majority in this educated area.

15:00 Canterbury: 17 Con – 9 Lab – 6 LD – 1 Green – 6 Indies. While the parliamentary seat is becoming Labour territory, the wider council elected a Tory majority in 2019. Defections unmade the conservative majority and the three ‘progressive’ parties are hoping to gain seats and upend Tory dominance.
 
15:00 Darlington: 22 Con – 19 Lab – 3 LD – 2 Green – 4 Indies. Conservatives in 2019 won the council after 40 years of Labour government. They however could not entrench control because no seats were up in 2021, unlike in say Hartlepool.  Labour hope to retake the majority, though national Tories are confident local successes can blunt incoming damage. YouGov found a huge swing to Labour in their MRP.

15:00 Erewash: 26 Con – 15 Lab – 1 LD – 6 Indies. This commuter council between Derby and Nottingham already has a substantial Labour delegation thanks to their strength around Ilkeston. Labour have seen churn from by-elections and defections, but still have plenty of targets...
 
15:00 Middlesborough: 20 Lab – 3 Con – 23 Indies. 2019 saw a massive influx of independents into Middlesborough, enough to control the council without Labour. However, the relationship between the Independents and the regional mayor has drawn criticism. Labour are expecting local disdain for the Independents to be the decider here. The independent city mayor is also up and faces the same headwinds.

15:00 Milton Keynes: 22 Con ( 8 ) – 20 Lab (7) – 14 LD (5). Labour are expecting local successes to allow them to become the largest party in this GE battleground. Winning a majority though will probably require cannibalizing their local Lib-Dem allies…

15:00 Wokingham: 26 Con ( 8 ) - 23 LD ( 8 ) – 3 Lab (1) – 2 Indies (1). In both 2019 and 2022 the Conservatives got demolished by the Lib-Dems, but their decent performance in 2021 preserved control. The 2019 Tory class still though has further to fall, and the Lib-Dems are looking win the first non-Tory majority here in over 20 years.

15:30 North Hertfordshire: 19 Con (7) – 17 Lab (5) – 13 LD (6). Recent elections have seen constant Tory decline in formerly reliable territory. Labour and the Lib-Dems have governed together since 2019. The 2022 ward results suggest they will only increase their combined numbers. Look for Labour to become the largest group.

15:30 Pendle: 17 Con ( 8 ) – 10 Lab (3) – 5 LD (2) – 1 Indie. National Tories are talking up Pendle as their Northeast bastion, and it’s not hard to see why. The ground is favorable to them after in 2021 locked in Conservative councilors and a number of Blue wards that are up had solid margins of victory. Yet they still could lose control. Those wards up which aren’t safe for the Tories were won by Labour or the Lib-Dems in 2022, and the supposedly safe wards might start falling if in a Labour wave…

15:30 West Lancashire: 25 Lab – 20 Con – 7 Others – 2 Indies. Labour held up decently here during the 2021 elections, but they still lost the majority. Redistricting has put every seat up for election which should allow Labour to win back full control.

16:00 Dover: 20 Con – 11 Lab – 1 Indie. Despite the two-party topline, Labour’s previous middling result is thanks to notable opposition vote splitting. While polling does say Labour should be picking up some Tory voters here, they’ll also need tactical voter consolidation.

[Oryxslayer]

Continued:

16:00 Gravesham: 22 Lab – 21 Con – 1 Indie. Council size To be reduced by 5. Labour kept this council close and swingy over the past 15 years even as the parliamentary constituency stayed firmly with the Conservatives. Labour won a 2-seat majority in 2019, but lost it through by-elections. Even with redistricting reducing the seat count, Labour are expecting a wider majority this time around.

16:00 Great Yarmouth: 22 Con – 14 Lab – 3 Other. Labour directed all activists in Greater Norfolk/ East Anglia here. Partially this reflects local geography, partially it’s Labour considering it a viable target once more…

16:00 Mid Suffolk: 16 Con – 12 Green – 5 LD – 1 Indie. This rural, nationally conservative council may be the first in the country to elect a Green majority Ironically, they are surging here cause of NIMBY opposition, which has prompted fears over loss of greenspace.

16:00 North East Derbyshire: 26 Con – 18 Lab – 3 Lib – 6 Indies. The Conservatives took control of this council for the first time in 2019. Labour’s clear defeat here foreshadowed the GE losses. Since then, Labour have won a by-election, the Tories lost their majority to defections, and the cost-of-living crisis is giving voters a reason to return to Labour.

16:00 Redcar and Cleveland: 14 Lab – 13 LD – 6 Con – 22 Others in 3 Groups – 4 Indies. The council is currently governed by the Lib-Dems and Localists. Labour are campaigning here with an eye on the majority, perhaps because their unpopular party bosses are gone, perhaps believing the national environment can reverse losses…

16:00 Sheffield: 39 Lab (13) – 29 LD (11) – 14 Green (4) – 1 Con – 1 Indie. Similar to Hull, Sheffield is a city where the Conservatives have essentially no presence to lose in an anti-Conservative environment. Labour hope to regain their former majority, though entrenched local Greens may be harder to dislodge then certain Lib-Dems.

16:00 West Oxfordshire: 20 Con (9) – 15 LD (3) – 9 Lab (3) – 2 Green – 3 Indies (2). The Tories have collapsed hard here since Brexit, and it has been the Lib-Dems who gained. They currently lead an anyone-but-Tory coalition, to win a majority would necessitate cannibalizing said allies.  

16:00 Wirral: 25 Lab – 23 Con – 9 Green – 6 LD – 3 Indies. Labour have not gained a seat here since 2015, but still maintained control for over a decade. A switch in election policy though means all 66 councilors are up in one year from now onwards, and the environment means Labour could lock in a majority government for the next 4 years. A fair bit of churn is expected with both the greens and Labour confident of gains,  suggesting thr Conservatives might be the net losers.

16:00 Woking: 16 LD (4) – 8 Con (4) – 3 Lab (1) – 3 Indies (1). The Lib-Dems do only have a bare majority here, but unless Labour break out of their one ward and split the vote, the Lib-Dems are not likely to lose it, even with the poor state of local finances the Lib-Dems inherited from the previous Tories.

16:30 Arun: 23 Con – 17 LD – 3 Green – 1 Lab – 10 Indies. The Lib-Dems actually finished ahead of the Conservatives here in 2019, but defections and infighting gave the Conservatives control. Just repeating 2019 might put them back in contention.

16:30 Broxtowe: 19 Con – 14 Lab – 7 LD – 1 Other – 3 Indies. Traditionally a conservative council, but in 2019 an anyone-but-Tory coalition was set up with Labour at it’s head. Labour are aiming for significant gains.

16:30 Chichester: 16 Con – 10 LD – 2 Lab – 2 Green – 9 Others in two Groups – 1 Indie. Currently Tory Minority government tipped to fall to fall to true NOC, though the Lib-Dems have been pouring in resources…

16:30 Elmbridge: 15 Con – 13 LD – 19 Others in 6 Groups – 1 Indie. Esher and Walton covers much of the council so the Lib-Dems have been pouring resources in since their narrow loss in 2019. Gains were made in 2022 but the localist groups put ceiling on change.

16:30 South Oxfordshire: 13 LD – 10 Con – 5 Green – 3 Lab – 3 Others – 2 Indies. The Conservatives have only lost seats in greater Oxfordshire since the Brexit vote, mainly to the Lib Dems. 2023 will likely be no different, with the Lib Dems looking to win a majority.

16:30 Stockport: 28 LD – 22 Lab – 4 Con – 2 Green – 3 Others – 3 Indies. Labour have in the past decade led the council as a minority, but never as a majority. This isn’t the best ground for gains either: the 3 indies were former Labourites, Labour strength is concentrated, the Conservatives have nowhere to fall, and the Lib-Dems have a long-term machine in certain suburbs. But redistricting means the whole council is up for grabs…

16:30 Swindon: 33 Con (12) – 23 Lab (7) – 1 Indie. Starmer launched National Labour’s campaign in Swindon, and there’s clear reasons why. Labour won many wards and the popular vote here in 2022. If Labour were to match that result it would win control for the first time in 20 years. But Starmer clearly hopes for more than 2022.

17:00 Brighton and Hove: 20 Green – 16 Lab – 11 Con – 7 Indies. This is the Green Party’s national stronghold and one of the few places they have already led a coalition. However, Labour are energized and confident that they can get the seats necessary to topple them. Redistricting puts every seat up and Labour expects to flip Tory wards.

17;00 Cherwell: 25 Con (9) – 9 Lab (3) – 7 LD (2) – 2 Green (1)– 5 Indies (1). This is the Conservative’s last council in Oxfordshire. The Lib-Dems are looking to advance here, but coalitions will remain the only option for control.
 
17:00 Dartford: 29 Con – 7 Lab – 3 Others – 1 Green – 2 Indies. The Thames Estuary battleground council closest to London is ironically the one where Labour are in the worst position. Yet these are the type of areas where Labour expects big gains off national polling, and YouGov's MRP seems to confirm large swings in their favor...

17:00 Derby: 18 Con – 16 Lab – 8 LD – 6 RefUK – 3 Indies. Labour should advance in a place like Derby, but local issues and intrenched local machines might prevent change. Take the Reform UK councilors – some previously elected as UKIP, all coming from 2 specific wards. They have survived the collapse of their national brand by drilling down on the local. However, like in Bolton, a large national lead could wipe the local divisions aside...
 
17:00 Leicester: 37 Lab – 5 Con – 1 LD – 1 Green – 10 Indies. This is a safe Labour city in GE’s but the local party is in turmoil. Tensions between the South Asian community and the local party have flared up more than once, and the heavy-handedness of the mayor has not helped. National Labour stepped in, but many of the candidates they deselected are still running as independents. The lack of opposition and the environment may allow Labour to retain control. Also keep an eye on the mayor election for the same reasons – all candidates except Labour Incumbent Peter Soulsby desire to end the office and its concentration of power, and his strongest challengers are all of South Asian descent.

17:00 Liverpool: 61 Lab – 11 LD – 4 Green – 13 Others in 2 Groups – 1 Indie. Council being reduced to 85 seats. Liverpool has some of the safest Labour seats in a national election. Labour locally though have had serious issues with financial mismanagement, misuse of council property, bribery, and corruption to the point that nationally appointed managers had to step in. It was them who ordered redistricting and the product – going from all seats electing 3 councilors in separate cycles to electing everyone at once on a map where almost all wards are SMDs or 2MDs – seems intended to allow the electorate to punish their politicians if such things occur again.

17:00 Southampton: 26 Lab – 20 Con – 1 LD – 1 Indie. 3 seats to be added. Labour took control of the city in 2022 by sweeping almost every ward. Every ward is up thanks to redistricting. More possible than the Tories retaking control is the potential for a second Labour sweep.

18:00 Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole: 35 Con – 13 LD – 3 Lab – 2 Green – 19 Others in 4 Groups – 4 Indies. The Tory administration has faced constant criticism over its general shady tactics, unethical behavior, and financial mismanagement – issues that have led to leadership resignations. Conservative losses are expected, and the Lib-Dems have devoted resources, a split opposition points towards fragmentation and wide coalitions.  

18:00 Cheshire West and Chester: 33 Lab – 28 Con – 2 LD – 1 Green – 8 Indie. Labour had a bare majority here, but lost it to defections. With every seat up Labour are confident they will win a stable majority.

18:00 Lancaster: 16 Labour – 11 + 4 Green - 11 Con – 4 LD – 14 Others in 3 Groups. The council here covers a lot of different territory leading to the fractured council from 2019. A large alliance of Greens, the secondary Green group, Labour, and localists currently has control. The Greens are targeting council seats in urban Lancaster – under new boundaries – as they hope to truly become the largest party in a fractured coalition.

18:00 Mid Devon: 18 Con – 12 LD – 2 Green – 10 Indies. This is the council which overlaps with Tiverton and Honiton. Local politicd is messy here with the Indies trying to play one party against each other. However, the Lib Dems are working to get their one-time by-election voters into the habit of voting Lib-Dem in these locals to prepare for 2024. Complicating things is a new set of ward lines.

18:00 South Derbyshire: 16 Con – 16 Lab – 4 Indies. The Conservatives actually won a majority here in 2019. They then lost that majority to mass defections in 2021 – and then lost control of the council to Labour and the defectors. Both parties are once again attempting to win a majority on their own – Labour potentially for the first time in 2 decades.

18:00 South Ribble: 24 Lab – 21 Con – 5 LD. For a council so close to greater Manchester you would think Labour would have won a majority more times than once in the last 50 years. Labour now though are in a position to transform their minority into a majority. Two Tory councilors defected to Labour before the elections.

18:00 Thanet: 25 Con – 15 Lab – 5 Green – 7 others – 4 Indies. The once-majority UKIP council collapsed in 2019 with both Labour and the Conservatives making double digit gains. Thanet's seemingly common local defections and readmissions of councilors though have shifted the seat totals since then. Theoretically though this council should be good for Labour this year just like the rest of coastal urban and suburban Kent.

18:00 West Berkshire: 24 Con – 16 LD – 3 Green. The Lib Dems surged here in 2019, transforming what was an almost entirely Blue council to a marginal one. Now the Lib-Dems are looking to win a majority of their own.  

19:00 Amber Valley: 24 Con – 10 Lab – 5 Reform UK – 3 Green – 2 Others – 1 Indie. The Full council is up thanks to redistricting, though it is to be reduced from 45 to 42 seats. Labour are presently at a historic low. However, the council is getting attention as a potential battleground since every councilor being forced to stand after redistricting offers Labour a unique opportunity for a comeback, and the Tory’s have seen defections to Reform UK.

19:00 Bedford: 15 LD – 11 Lab – 11 Con – 2 Green – 1 Indie. Currently led by an anti-Tory coalition. Redistricting has reconfigured the wards here and forced everyone to stand at once, but can any party win a majority?

19:30 Cheshire East: 31 Con – 25 Lab – 4 LD – 19 others in 2 Groups – 3 Indies. Historically a Conservative council, but after 2019 Labour’s gains allowed them to form a coalition with local independents. Now with every seat once again up, can Labour make a play for majority?

20:00 York: 21 LD – 17 Lab – 4 Green – 2 Con – 3 Indies. York in 2019 was neatly divided between the Greens in the student wards, Labour in the city, and the Lib-Dems in the suburban ring around the city. The unpopularity of the preceding Conservative administration allowed all other parties to make gains, but especially the Lib Dems who displaced almost every suburban Conservative. Since then, the Lib-Dems and Greens have governed. Can the Lib-Dems complete their suburban sweep, or will a growing Labour or potentially rebounding Tories encroach on the suburban wards?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Where did you get the idea we might win a clean sweep in Harlow? If we win Church Langley, then that means two things:

1. Nobody has told them Liz Truss isn't PM any more and
2. We have stuffed a lot of ballot boxes.

[YL]

I will make my usual tedious comment that I am not very fond of raw seat change figures as a measure of success.  Part of this is that the meaning of the numbers changes with the cycle (and with local government reform; even though it's the same cycle in some sense, Tory seat losses on the scale of 1995 would be even more disastrous now than they were then) and what happened in the baseline election(s); part of it is the thing about me living in a ward with an electorate of around 15000.

I do suspect that we might see a few places where the Lib Dems did well in 2019 where they fall back a bit, even against the Tories.  But we will see.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's a bit surprising that nobody is really taking about the raw number of councils changing hands as a metric, as that is actually somewhat meaningful. It's also one that might see reasonably large changes, because whilst it's hard for Labour to win control in a lot of places that elect by thirds, an awful lot of Tory-controlled councils could go NOC.

[JimJamUK]

That 2019 comparison has seemingly messed with some analysis, because polling during the final days of May's government was bad for both Labour and Conservatives. But in the locals that ensued Labour was in an analytically bad position: both parties lost voters to Remain-focused Lib-Dems and Greens, but the lack of similar hyper-Leave Brexit Party candidates meant the Tories were the next best option in specific councils. So when someone says the Tories now have similar polling to 2019, that conflates the local and national, ignores how coalitions have shifted in the chaotic four years, and ignores how Labour is much higher than the Tories cause they are winning comparable numbers of Tory voters to those in 2019 who opted for a hard-remain or hard-Leave party.

Well done on doing all those councils, I tried doing predictions a few years ago and it took an age. I have to disagree on this point though. The 2019 locals were nationally basically a repeat of the 2017 general election in Labour vs Conservative contests. There were some Leave voting councils where the Conservatives did relatively well, but equally there were some where Labour did particularly well (think Bassetlaw, Telford etc). In practice, Leave voters who were pissed off at the major 2 parties, just like their Remain counterparts, voted for whatever minor party was locally active (and in some cases simply on the ballot), whether that was Lib Dem, Green, Independent, Localist or various hard right outfits. I remember it being remarked by John Curtice that Lib Dem gains had remarkably little correlation with Remain support, their surge in support was almost entirely localist and NOTA rather than Brexit based.

[TheTide]

Polling stations now open.

The anecdotes throughout the day should be more interesting than usual given the ID issue.

[YL]

Voted.  ID was checked.  It was fairly quiet but not unusual for that time in the morning.

The candidate I voted for will probably come third.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1654085725581606921

[GenerationTerrorist]

Voted this morning for the local Labour candidate. Known him for 20+ years from standing next to each other at the football. Decent bloke, so would have voted for him irrespective of Party. He probably won't win, but it was nice to be voting in local elections for something, rather than against the biggest c-word.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anecdotal evidence that at least a few people are being turned away for lack of voter ID in most areas - and also that these tend to be older voters.

[YL]

Anecdotal evidence that at least a few people are being turned away for lack of voter ID in most areas - and also that these tend to be older voters.

I think that's more or less what I'd have expected.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1654155961106419717?s=20

tl;dr it's bad for the Tories everywhere and the Lib Dems in particular seem to be doing well.  

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1654155961106419717?s=20

tl;dr it's bad for the Tories everywhere and the Lib Dems in particular seem to be doing well.  

Time to overinterpret anecdotes!

South Gloucester is expected, see above and how I mentioned there was so many Lab-Con close wards in suburban Bristol last time. The Lib-dem activism might not bear fruit, or it might and make things messy three ways, or it might lead to tactical voting depending on the wards - the Lib-dems have their own targets,

South Essex region: Also expected, this place has a lot of strong localists in the councils I didn't mention above. Also probably a loss of Brentwood to the Lib Dems.

Keighley: Part of Bradford council which is safe Labour. However, the Keighley wards in particular are usually a mixed bag, and they obviously matter in GE's given the Westminster seat here has recently been swingy. However, this is an area which should be falling to Labour if her polling lead was less than half of the current numbers, so the statement is not surprising.

South West Bedfordshire: Demographically similar to neighboring parts of Hertfordshire, which have both become good for the Lib-Dems recently and are expected to get better. However the Central Bedfordshire council the report is probably coming from should be safe Tory even if it falls to Minority given all the Independents.

Canterbury: Not surprising whatsoever. Had the pleasure of actually chatting with Multiple Labour candidates here through the New Statesman streams and they all mentioned how the local Tory administration's reputation was coming up. The coalition outcome is also unsuprising, given multiple party stronghold wards.

Guildford, South Oxfordshire, and Poole: Not too surprising. As I mentioned above, all recent elections suggest it's bad to be a Tory Candidate in Oxfordshire, and it's the Lib-Dem's who will take your seat. Guildford is notable because only a handful of councilors are not in a localist group or the Lib Dems, who are in coalition one the largest of the groups. I didn't mention it above because it seemed likely that said situation would continue, even with a bit of churn. But maybe the Lib-Dems are hoping for big gains? Finally Poole. I did talk about Bournemouth, Christchurch, and Poole and how the local Tories have made a mess of their reputation, with the Lib-Dems as the largest opposition. However local results pointed towards ward flips going everywhere given all the localists and smaller groupings in the mix. Maybe the Lib-Dems feel they are getting a significant chunk of that swing...

Stoke-on-Trent: Expected, National Labour made this a make-or-break council with how many people and resources sent, and as I mentioned above, something would have to be really off for voters not to return Labour as the largest party here at least.

[Blair]

The interesting thing will be how much Sunak has contained the tactical voting iceberg that emerged under Johnson; all the evidence over the last two years has been pointing one way!

[Serenity Now]

I voted around 1.30pm in Brighton & Hove, it wasn't busy at my Polling Station. The 'vibe' I'm sensing here is that the Green vote is largely holding up compared to 2019 but I think the national trend will mean enough Labour vote gains / Conservative vote losses for Labour to leapfrog the Greens in terms of seats to win a minority on the council. I feel they will fall short of a majority though.

[Blair]

Looking back at old results is there a reason why New Labour seemed to lose a higher amount of councillors than the Conservatives did in 2010-2020- I assume events and the fact they had a very high starting point.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1654155961106419717?s=20

tl;dr it's bad for the Tories everywhere and the Lib Dems in particular seem to be doing well.  

Lincoln is a Labour stronghold. Doesn't sound great to be hearing news such as what she said  but i always take anecdotal reports like this with a massive grain of salt. It would take a seismic shift for Labour to do badly in that city.

[YL]

https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1654155961106419717?s=20

tl;dr it's bad for the Tories everywhere and the Lib Dems in particular seem to be doing well.  

Lincoln is a Labour stronghold. Doesn't sound great to be hearing news such as what she said  but i always take anecdotal reports like this with a massive grain of salt. It would take a seismic shift for Labour to do badly in that city.

On polling day they are probably trying to make sure people who have already said they'll vote for them actually do, so it doesn't mean much.

[Torrain]

Housekeeping, particularly for international viewers (welcome!). We're not expecting initial results until around 2am UK time. Most will report across Friday morning, with results trickling out across the day. BBC News will be running election coverage from 23.40 tonight to 6.00 tomorrow.

If you're looking for some people to follow on social media (ok, Twitter) for election results/opinion, I'd offer the following as an introductory list:

• BBC: Chris Mason (Political Editor), Nick Eardley, Ione Wells
• Sky: Beth Rigby (Political Editor), Sam Coates (Deputy Political Editor)
• ITV: Robert Peston (Political Editor), Anushka Asthana (Deputy Political Editor)
• LBC: Lewis Goodall
• YouGov: Chris Curtis, Patrick English
• Election results aggregators: Britain Elects, Election Maps UK

Sir John Curtice will offer some of the most definitive early analysis, but he'll be on TV, rather than online.

[Duke of York]

Housekeeping, particularly for international viewers (welcome!). We're not expecting initial results until around 2am UK time. Most will report across Friday morning, with results trickling out across the day. BBC News will be running election coverage from 23.40 tonight to 6.00 tomorrow.

If you're looking for some people to follow on social media (ok, Twitter) for election results/opinion, I'd offer the following as an introductory list:

• BBC: Chris Mason (Political Editor), Nick Eardley, Ione Wells
• Sky: Beth Rigby (Political Editor), Sam Coates (Deputy Political Editor)
• ITV: Robert Peston (Political Editor), Anushka Asthana (Deputy Political Editor)
• LBC: Lewis Goodall
• YouGov: Chris Curtis, Patrick English
• Election results aggregators: Britain Elects, Election Maps UK

Sir John Curtice will offer some of the most definitive early analysis, but he'll be on TV, rather than online.

Where was the 2 am figure reported?

[Torrain]

Predicted election declaration times for each council, via the Press Association.

Spoiler alert: Council declaration times, chronological - 230 entries

Show

Broxbourne 00:30
Rushmoor 01:00
Basildon 01:30
Castle Point 01:30
Halton 01:30
Harlow 01:30
Hartlepool 01:30
Sunderland 01:30
Brentwood 02:00
Chorley 02:00
Ipswich 02:00
Newcastle-upon-Tyne 02:00
Redditch 02:00
Rochford 02:00
Sandwell 02:00
Sefton 02:00
South Tyneside 02:00
Tamworth 02:00
Thurrock 02:00
Hart 02:30
Havant 02:30
North East Lincolnshire 02:30
Portsmouth 02:30
Stevenage 02:30
Worcester 02:30
Boston 03:00
Colchester 03:00
Cotswold 03:00
Dudley 03:00
Kingston-upon-Hull 03:00
Lincoln 03:00
North Lincolnshire 03:00
North West Leicestershire 03:00
Peterborough 03:00
South Holland 03:00
Eastleigh 03:10
Exeter 03:30
Hertsmere 03:30
North Norfolk 03:30
Reading 03:30
Salford 03:30
Bath & North East Somerset 04:00
Bolsover 04:00
Bolton 04:00
Braintree 04:00
Coventry 04:00
North Devon 04:00
Plymouth 04:00
Southend-on-Sea 04:00
Dacorum 04:30
Hinckley & Bosworth 04:30
East Hertfordshire 05:00
Telford & Wrekin 05:00
Tendring 05:00
Windsor & Maidenhead 05:00
Ashfield 05:30
Bassetlaw 05:30
West Lindsey 05:30
South Kesteven 06:00
Tameside 06:00
Medway 06:30
Stoke-on-Trent 06:30
South Gloucestershire 07:00
East Lindsey 11:30
Manchester 11:45
Herefordshire 12:00
Gateshead 12:30
Solihull 12:30
Walsall 12:30
Worthing 12:30
Broadland 13:00
Cannock Chase 13:00
Knowsley 13:00
North Tyneside 13:00
North Warwickshire 13:00
Rossendale 13:00
South Norfolk 13:00
Stratford-on-Avon 13:00
Warwick 13:00
Blackburn with Darwen 13:30
Bracknell Forest 13:30
Burnley 13:30
Crawley 13:30
Fenland 13:30
Folkestone & Hythe 13:30
Maidstone 13:30
East Devon 14:00
East Staffordshire 14:00
Hyndburn 14:00
Lichfield 14:00
Mansfield 14:00
North Hertfordshire 14:00
Rugby 14:00
Runnymede 14:00
Tewkesbury 14:00
Torbay 14:00
Torridge 14:00
Welwyn Hatfield 14:00
West Devon 14:00
Reigate & Banstead 14:15
Elmbridge 14:30
Forest of Dean 14:30
Newark & Sherwood 14:30
Preston 14:30
Teignbridge 14:30
Barnsley 15:00
Blackpool 15:00
Breckland 15:00
Calderdale 15:00
Canterbury 15:00
Darlington 15:00
Derbyshire Dales 15:00
East Cambridgeshire 15:00
East Riding of Yorkshire 15:00
Epping Forest 15:00
Erewash 15:00
Kirklees 15:00
Maldon 15:00
Middlesbrough 15:00
Milton Keynes 15:00
Rochdale 15:00
Sevenoaks 15:00
Sheffield 15:00
South Hams 15:00
Surrey Heath 15:00
Tandridge 15:00
Tunbridge Wells 15:00
Watford 15:00
Wealden 15:00
West Suffolk 15:00
Wokingham 15:00
Wychavon 15:00
North Somerset 15:30
Oadby & Wigston 15:30
Ashford 16:00
Babergh 16:00
Blaby 16:00
Bromsgrove 16:00
Cambridge 16:00
Chesterfield 16:00
Dover 16:00
Gravesham 16:00
Great Yarmouth 16:00
Harborough 16:00
Luton 16:00
Malvern Hills 16:00
Melton 16:00
Mid Suffolk 16:00
Norwich 16:00
Oldham 16:00
Pendle 16:00
Redcar & Cleveland 16:00
Ribble Valley 16:00
Rushcliffe 16:00
Rutland 16:00
Slough 16:00
Stafford 16:00
Staffordshire Moorlands 16:00
St Albans 16:00
Swindon 16:00
Uttlesford 16:00
Vale of White Horse 16:00
West Lancashire 16:00
West Oxfordshire 16:00
Wyre 16:00
North East Derbyshire 16:10
Arun 16:30
Bradford 16:30
Broxtowe 16:30
Cherwell 16:30
Chichester 16:30
Fylde 16:30
Nottingham 16:30
South Oxfordshire 16:30
Stockport 16:30
Three Rivers 16:30
Tonbridge & Malling 16:30
Woking 16:30
Wolverhampton 16:30
Basingstoke & Deane 17:00
Bedford 17:00
Brighton & Hove 17:00
Bury 17:00
Central Bedfordshire 17:00
Charnwood 17:00
Chelmsford 17:00
Eastbourne 17:00
Epsom & Ewell 17:00
Horsham 17:00
Leeds 17:00
Leicester 17:00
Lewes 17:00
Liverpool 17:00
North Kesteven 17:00
Southampton 17:00
South Derbyshire 17:00
Stockton-on-Tees 17:00
Swale 17:00
Thanet 17:00
Wigan 17:00
Wirral 17:00
Wyre Forest 17:00
East Hampshire 17:30
Gedling 17:30
High Peak 17:30
Lancaster 17:30
Wakefield 17:30
Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole 18:00
Dartford 18:00
Derby 18:00
East Suffolk 18:00
Guildford 18:00
King’s Lynn & West Norfolk 18:00
Mid Devon 18:00
Mole Valley 18:00
New Forest 18:00
Rother 18:00
South Ribble 18:00
Test Valley 18:00
Trafford 18:00
Waverley 18:00
West Berkshire 18:00
Winchester 18:00
Spelthorne 18:15
South Staffordshire 18:30
Amber Valley 19:00
Cheshire West & Chester 19:00
Mid Sussex 19:00
Cheshire East 20:00
York 20:00

Mayoral election declaration times:

• Middlesbrough-01:00
• Mansfield-12:00
• Bedford-13:00
• Leicester-15:30

[TheTide]

There should be individual wards declaring in about an hour, even if it will be a few hours until an entire council count is completed.

[YL]

It's worth pointing out that only about 20% of the seats up will be declared tonight; the rest are counting tomorrow.