2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Pericles]

Any idea what the national popular vote ends up as?

[Pericles]

A 50-50 Senate at least isn't entirely impossible, if Democrats have a lot of good luck.

[Pericles]

A 50-50 Senate at least isn't entirely impossible, if Democrats have a lot of good luck.

How so?

Win both GA seats (presuming Perdue's seat goes to a runoff and Biden wins the state) and MI. Looks like ME and NC are just out of reach though. However I am prepared for a big blue shift.

[Pericles]

Yeah New York is going to have a huge blue shift, just look at earlier elections this year.

[Pericles]

I'm not entirely ruling out a 321 EV win that is a 5-6% PV margin along with 51 Democratic Senators.

[Pericles]

Let's say that Biden ends up winning 2016 + MI/WI/PA + AZ + GA, would this still be considered an underwhelming victory?

It shouldn't be. That's a thoroughly middle-of-the-projections result.

It's also hard because TX and FL have so many electoral votes, so while not many states might actually deviate from expectations it makes the EC win look underwhelming.

[Pericles]

2022 as the backup option is not very reassuring because Democrats not only need to get lucky and have a net gain of seats but they also need to hold the House, so they can actually pass legislation. Supreme Court vacancies and stuff of course only need the Senate though. Let's first hope they can cobble together a majority in this election.

[Pericles]

Yeah, I don't know much discussion there's been, but...Biden's favored in Georgia at this point. If he wins 70% of what's left, he wins by 20k votes (not including any mail ballots that arrive by Friday and/or provisionals, both of which skew heavily D).

What would that be as a percentage?

[Pericles]

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

Two Runoff's in Georgia with a unpopular incumbent in Loeffler and God knows what Trump does in the lame duck and if Mitch refuses to do stimulus before the special elections. It could be a perfect storm and the organizing effort in Atlanta has been amazing, I have a friend who does work out there (she's worked with Ossoff before) and I'd be very confident in GOTV for those two elections especially that you can registered new voters for that election by December 7th. What looked like a nightmare may turn into Biden/Harris Administration's favor. It would also be a test for Schumer and his leadership in the Senate.

Perdue outperforming Trump is very concerning though. Democrats can go 2/2, but it will require an absolutely massive effort.

[Pericles]

NyT:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged a “challenging election” in a letter to Democrats, after multiple first-term House Democrats lost their seats to Republicans.

Yeah, I think it's time for her and Hoyer to step down.

No, Biden will need her skills for the next two years. She might be retiring in 2022 anyway, which is probably for the best. It is also too early to say how well or badly House Democrats have done exactly, though a win is a win. Yet again, it's not a level playing field, the tipping-point House district is likely several points to the right of the nation, so in a way any majority is a good result for Democrats. Overall though, let's show some patience and wait for the full results (remember 2018 after all).

[Pericles]

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

Two Runoff's in Georgia with a unpopular incumbent in Loeffler and God knows what Trump does in the lame duck and if Mitch refuses to do stimulus before the special elections. It could be a perfect storm and the organizing effort in Atlanta has been amazing, I have a friend who does work out there (she's worked with Ossoff before) and I'd be very confident in GOTV for those two elections especially that you can registered new voters for that election by December 7th. What looked like a nightmare may turn into Biden/Harris Administration's favor. It would also be a test for Schumer and his leadership in the Senate.

Perdue outperforming Trump is very concerning though. Democrats can go 2/2, but it will require an absolutely massive effort.

Honestly, it's just a question of turnout. Which groups will be more enthused? I honestly don't know.

I also wonder whether people will find the 'stability' of a Democratic trifecta more compelling than divided government, or if Georgians (especially anti-Trump suburbanites) actually want divided government and a check on Biden. Democrats need to get the messaging right by emphasizing the stuff they can only do with a Democratic Senate such as a proper stimulus, voting rights protections, criminal justice reform and a public option.

[Pericles]

They only made a mistake if Trump wins. When you make the call, it includes the possibility that the margin could get razor thin, but that's it.

Bit like all those of us that predicted a Biden win.

[Pericles]

Think about it this way, as an incumbent Obama won the popular vote by a 4% margin. Now as an incumbent Trump is on track to lose the popular vote by at least 4%.

[Pericles]

GA: Next Clayton update may put Biden ahead, depending on the size.

When is it?

[Pericles]

This map feels futuristic. I love Democratic Georgia, even if it has to be an island of sanity. So good the dumb GA takes took a mortal blow this year, while poor Texans have to wait years for trends to be proven real in their state.

[Pericles]

Figured Georgia would vote to the left of Florida, but to see that confirmed to this extent... Must be a political sea change in southern politics. Georgia will replace Florida as the prime southern battleground.

It might keep zooming left due to demographic change though. It remains to be seen how the post-Trump Republican Party holds up with suburban voters and whether it can repair the damage.

[Pericles]

This thread is practically a live blog documenting the fall of Florida & rise of Georgia in future Democratic politics/campaigning.

From Tuesday's frightening numbers in Miami-Dade to today's jublient returns around Atlanta.

We are so lucky that Georgia has 2 Senate races this year and Florida had none.

[Pericles]

The 2024 Republican contenders need to look like they support Trump rigging the election to win over the base, but even if they could they wouldn't actually rig the election for Trump. If Trump can rig an election, the next thing to go is the 22nd Amendment, and that kills all their dreams.

[Pericles]

I wonder if his approval rating plummets now that Republicans realise he isn't a winner and take a less rose-tinted look at his record and flaws.

[Pericles]

Biden sounded so presidential in that speech. It is such a relief to have a real leader in charge of America again, and he is someone that we respect. He is very qualified for the task ahead, I hope he is able to succeed. Kamala Harris also came across very well, I will give her an open mind and hopefully either she or someone else breaks that glass ceiling in a few years.

[Pericles]

And now Karl Rove is trying to make a thing out of COVID regulations at the inaugural ball and inauguration, and Bret Baier is grinning with delight at the possibility of kicking of the Obama-era obsession with trivialities and making scandals out of absolutely nothing.

We're about to get coffee salute, tan suit, fist-bump, flag pin, Common at the White House poetry slam, Van Jones being a terrorist, Shirley Sherrod being a black supremacist, and so on.  All these trivial fake outrages that Fox News ginned up into outrage news cycles.

They must have been so annoyed that Trump was a Republican.

[Pericles]

Maybe Brian Kemp's decision not to listen to Donald Trump (Trump criticised Kemp's early reopening of Georgia, saying it was "too soon") ended up costing Trump the state. It would be hilarious if Trump and other Republicans bring up this point.

[Pericles]

Great move to win over Biden voters for the runoff, keep it up!

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1330374263581368320

What did Pat Toomey do to piss him off?

[Pericles]

i dont really know where else to ask, but what's the discord for this website? I've seen it referenced a bit here and there.

Yes, here you go-https://discord.gg/mdBedb6