LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Donerail]

Time for predictions? I'll go Edwards 47, Rispone 26, Abraham 24

[Donerail]

Before I leave to see the mother of my future kid, I'll drop in a couple helpful links.

Bro: congrats on the sex, and thank you for telling us all.

[Donerail]

Concerning the claim they nailed the jungle primary results, I would love to see what share of the vote they gave to the two republican candidates, the problem with many #LA-GOV polls is that they underestimated greatly the share of the vote obtained by the two republicans, not that they failed to predict the JBE’s share.

This claim has been made a few times in this thread. The problem is that there's not really any evidence that this is actually the case — the explanation is simply that the most likely people to be "undecided" in a contested election with two Republicans and one Democrat are Republicans. If you look at the polls that actually pushed those undecided voters, you'll see that they did a pretty decent job of figuring out the final vote shares.

Rispone+Abraham final: 51
Trafalgar: 48 (MoE of 3)
Data for Progress: 48 (MoE of 3)
Emerson: 44, but with 4% to the Landrieu and 3% to the no-name R

[Donerail]

if trends are indeed real, shouldn't Beshear be winning Kenton, Campbell & Warren even as he's resoundingly defeated statewide?

[Donerail]

-Historically, Black turnout usually increases for the runoff, an effect that is likely to be pronounced in this race b/c the main contest in the primary was between two GOP candidates.

I tried to warn y'all, I really did!

The interesting part of the early voting numbers is the black/white split, which is more dramatic than the partisan shift — first day of early voting in the 2019 primary was 72-25% white/black, first day of early voting in the runoff was 66-31% white/black.

[Donerail]

Something to keep in mind about Saturday:

The LSU-Bama game

Half the state will be glued to TVs or at watch parties

Only half?

[Donerail]

You can't hide the fact that you are running an ad like this from a different demographic or a different part of the state, it's not the 1840s.   This kind of stuff absolutely does make Republican-leaners have second thoughts before crossing party lines.

Nobody hears about this stuff unless they actually see the ad themselves or are in the <5% of voters that are super-duper tuned into politics all the time. And the latter type of people are nearly all hardened partisans or have otherwise already made up their minds anyway.

^^This is correct — moreover, this model has already been "field tested" in a sense. The Jones campaign contracted with a black consulting firm and told them to run whatever the hell they wanted — Moore in a hood, Moore next to burning crosses, the whole nine yards. The infamous "Think if a black man went after high school girls?" was the most extreme but nowhere near the only one. Worked out okay for him.