Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, I think it is at least possible that Shoigu suffered a real heart attack after Putin started to run the country against a concrete wall at full speed. But more likely he's under house arrest like a couple of other intelligence and military officials that have been mentioned before.

[Middle-aged Europe]

That's a bit of an odd development considering that our defence minister had essentially said a couple of days ago that we had run out of suitable weapons that we could give to Ukraine and that we have to order new ones from the arms industry first instead. However, I had often the impression lately that she seems a bit in over her head and makes premature statements without properly checking with her own ministry first. This makes German government response a bit chaotic and disjointed much like recent Russian military decisions. Thank God we don't have to fight a war right now. But I guess at least the Ukrainians will be happy:


https://twitter.com/BalticSnowTiger/status/1506672023401078789

[Frodo]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

Here is a 'balancing act' for Alexander Lukashenko -he orders the Belarusian military to invade western Ukraine in accordance with Putin's wishes, and then immediately gets on a plane with his one-way ticket to Moscow to join his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych in exile.  If nothing else, he has a better chance at survival and self-preservation while avoiding accountability than with any other plan.  

You Russia could come out with less territory than when it started?

Among other things, we should certainly demand that Russia return its ill-gotten territorial gains and return to its pre-2008 borders and a demilitarized Kaliningrad as a precondition of ending sanctions if they are to have any hope of rescuing their economy.  

But above all else, we should demand an end to Vladimir Putin's regime, and that he must step down permanently from power and face accountability before the International Criminal Court (he is a war criminal, after all).

[Storr]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

Here is a 'balancing act' for Alexander Lukashenko -he orders the Belarusian military to invade western Ukraine in accordance with Putin's wishes, and then immediately gets on a plane with his one-way ticket to Moscow to join his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych in exile.  If nothing else, he has a better chance at survival and self-preservation while avoiding accountability than with any other plan.  

You Russia could come out with less territory than when it started?

Among other things, we should certainly demand that Russia return its ill-gotten territorial gains and return to its pre-2008 borders and a demilitarized Kaliningrad as a precondition of ending sanctions if they are to have any hope of rescuing their economy.  

But above all else, we should demand an end to Vladimir Putin's regime, and that he must step down permanently from power and face accountability before the International Criminal Court (he is a war criminal, after all).

All "frozen conflicts" are resolved in favor of the internationally recognized territorial owner (Abkhazia, S. Ossetia, Transnistria, Donbass).

I'd also want Russia to relinquish Kaliningrad Oblast. Its continued existence as a heavily militarized westen Russian exclave would be a threat to peace in the Baltic. Russia has already stationed "defensive" missiles there (in response to an eventually cancelled US plan to build a missile defense complex in Poland) and repeatedly hints at stationing nuclear weapons there. I assume a 4th Baltic state would be welcome to join the EU and NATO.

If possible, Japan should also have the southern Kuril islands returned.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1506753922224074756
🤩

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Well, I think it is at least possible that Shoigu suffered a real heart attack after Putin started to run the country against a concrete wall at full speed. But more likely he's under house arrest like a couple of other intelligence and military officials that have been mentioned before.

Shoigu has been a cabinet level equivalent minister since the fall of the Soviet Union, first as the ominously named Minister of Emergency Situations (which is something of a mash-up of the FEMA and the National Guard) and then as Minister of Defense. It’s fair to say no one other than Putin himself has had a bigger hand in shaping the modern Russian military. Also probably as big a behind the scenes political heavy weight as they come.

If he’s been removed it’s a BFD.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russia's low-energy attempt at an resolution on Ukraine has failed to pass the UN Security Council. Only China joined them in voting for it, everybody else - including usual suspects India und UAE - abstained.


https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1506749470511439875

https://twitter.com/PamelaFalk/status/1506745137329758209

2 > 0 though...so do abstentions in the UN effectively count as no votes?

[Alben Barkley]

Putin's daughter has reportedly separated from her Western husband:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10587477/Putins-girls-daughters-Russian-president-taking-world-WW3.html

Way to go Vlad! Getting rid of your neighbors AND your son-in-law in one blow I see!

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If Shoygu is "unwell" then who is actually in charge of moving this trainwreck? https://twitter.com/ALanoszka/status/1506720788489121801

This is literally out of the Soviet playbook. Kruschev "voluntarily retired" due to "advanced age and ill health", of course.

TBF, when Kruschev was removed totally voluntarily stepped down he did enjoy a pretty comfortable retirement as an irrelevant elder statesman hanging out in a nice dacha in the countryside.

I don’t think the guys being retired now are going to have that to look forward to.

[GeorgiaModerate]

2 > 0 though...so do abstentions in the UN effectively count as no votes?

A resolution in the Security Council needs nine yes votes to pass, and no vetoes by the big five.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2 > 0 though...so do abstentions in the UN effectively count as no votes?

A resolution in the Security Council needs nine yes votes to pass, and no vetoes by the big five.

9/15 is even more than a majority, and that means that yes, abstaining is basically the same as no.

[Person Man]

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/mar/22/i-will-not-be-held-prisoner-the-trans-women-turned-back-at-ukraines-borders

Transwoman are counted as men for the ban on leaving.

Has anyone actually looked at where Zelensky stands on the issues? He was one of the good guys even before the invasion. Probably even a little too liberal for me.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/mar/22/i-will-not-be-held-prisoner-the-trans-women-turned-back-at-ukraines-borders

Transwoman are counted as men for the ban on leaving.

Has anyone actually looked at where Zelensky stands on the issues? He was one of the good guys even before the invasion. Probably even a little too liberal for me.

It's possible to believe that Ukrainian border guard treatment of Trans individuals is problematic (to put it lightly) but that Ukraine is still the better side for LGBT+ people overall. As another poster said, they have the ability to change and be better -- and are showing progress on this issue. Russia is a backwards totalitarian anti-LGBT junta in comparison to Ukraine.

Here's an Article that talks a bit about what you're saying; Zelenskyy’s Bravery Is Nothing New to the LGBTQ+ Community

But for us in the LGBTQ+ community, his bravery comes as no surprise. While Ukraine has a history of not being a bastion of LGBTQ+ liberation — the country doesn’t recognize same-sex marriage — Zelenskyy became Ukraine’s first presidential candidate and first president to acknowledge the LGBTQ+ community and publicly state his desire to do more about equality.

During his campaign for president in 2019. Zelenskyy became somewhat of a global star when a video of him shouting down anti-LGBTQ+ hecklers went viral. While the protesters yelled, Zelenskyy angrily said, "Won't say anything bad about gay people to you, because [we are] living in a free society. Leave those people alone, for God's sake!" He was universally applauded for his bravery in defending our community.

Would Putin in a million years say to allow LGBT+ people to live in freedom & peace? I think not.

[Frodo]

In the event Belarus does invade Ukraine, what does Zelenskyy have up north to counter them?  

[Alben Barkley]

In the event Belarus does invade Ukraine, what does Zelenskyy have up north to counter them?  

Pretty sure Ukraine has enough Javelins alone to easily blow the entire Belarusian military to shreds in like five minutes.

There is a reason Lukashenko has been dragging his feet on actually committing forces. He knows the moment he does it will be an absolute disaster, and in his precarious position in which he came extremely close to being ousted until Putin bailed him out, that could very easily lead to his swift downfall well before Putin meets the same fate.

[WMS]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

Here is a 'balancing act' for Alexander Lukashenko -he orders the Belarusian military to invade western Ukraine in accordance with Putin's wishes, and then immediately gets on a plane with his one-way ticket to Moscow to join his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych in exile.  If nothing else, he has a better chance at survival and self-preservation while avoiding accountability than with any other plan.  

You Russia could come out with less territory than when it started?

Among other things, we should certainly demand that Russia return its ill-gotten territorial gains and return to its pre-2008 borders and a demilitarized Kaliningrad as a precondition of ending sanctions if they are to have any hope of rescuing their economy.  

But above all else, we should demand an end to Vladimir Putin's regime, and that he must step down permanently from power and face accountability before the International Criminal Court (he is a war criminal, after all).

All "frozen conflicts" are resolved in favor of the internationally recognized territorial owner (Abkhazia, S. Ossetia, Transnistria, Donbass).

I'd also want Russia to relinquish Kaliningrad Oblast. Its continued existence as a heavily militarized westen Russian exclave would be a threat to peace in the Baltic. Russia has already stationed "defensive" missiles there (in response to an eventually cancelled US plan to build a missile defense complex in Poland) and repeatedly hints at stationing nuclear weapons there. I assume a 4th Baltic state would be welcome to join the EU and NATO.

If possible, Japan should also have the southern Kuril islands returned.

Another possible outcome would be turning Kaliningrad Oblast into an area jointly run by Poland and Lithuania for security purposes and the like; they can call it the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth…

[WMS]

Posted separately to keep length reasonable.

I see tankies were recently discussed. Found this useful guide on How to Tankie properly:
https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1506714867981602817?s=21

Russian Atrocities, Attempted Starvation Version:
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1506719556986982413?s=21
https://twitter.com/akurkov/status/1506153985505476611?s=21

Fine, Something Lighter:
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1505297662274420740?s=21

[Hindsight was 2020]

In the event Belarus does invade Ukraine, what does Zelenskyy have up north to counter them?  

Pretty sure Ukraine has enough Javelins alone to easily blow the entire Belarusian military to shreds in like five minutes.

There is a reason Lukashenko has been dragging his feet on actually committing forces. He knows the moment he does it will be an absolute disaster, and in his precarious position in which he came extremely close to being ousted until Putin bailed him out, that could very easily lead to his swift downfall well before Putin meets the same fate.

Hell I’m gonna launch a flaming 🔥 take and say Belarus joining very likely would become a net positive for Ukraine as not only do they have more than enough resources at this point to stop a Belarusian attack but it’s more likely than not that Lukanhesko will be facing a full blown revolt/mutiny on his hands if he does attack and Putin would be forced to send men and resources he can’t afford to spare into Belarus to either prop Lukanhesko up or to make sure whoever replaces him doesn’t kick Russian troops out of the country

[Mehmentum]

In the event Belarus does invade Ukraine, what does Zelenskyy have up north to counter them?  

Pretty sure Ukraine has enough Javelins alone to easily blow the entire Belarusian military to shreds in like five minutes.

There is a reason Lukashenko has been dragging his feet on actually committing forces. He knows the moment he does it will be an absolute disaster, and in his precarious position in which he came extremely close to being ousted until Putin bailed him out, that could very easily lead to his swift downfall well before Putin meets the same fate.

Hell I’m gonna launch a flaming 🔥 take and say Belarus joining very likely would become a net positive for Ukraine as not only do they have more than enough resources at this point to stop a Belarusian attack but it’s more likely than not that Lukanhesko will be facing a full blown revolt/mutiny on his hands if he does attack and Putin would be forced to send men and resources he can’t afford to spare into Belarus to either prop Lukanhesko up or to make sure whoever replaces him doesn’t kick Russian troops out of the country

Its really hard to say what would happen, but I think dragging Belarus into the war has far more downside than upside for Putin.  It seems incredibly risky, all for the gain of throwing some incredibly low morale troops into the fight.

[BG-NY]

So much disinfo and wishcasting. It's okay to condemn Russia but let's be honest about this situation.

[NOVA Green]

Interesting article about how publishers are removing paywall content to certain countries as direct result of the UKR-RUS conflict.

Too bad Atlas didn't get the memo....

https://digiday.com/media/how-publishers-are-working-to-make-their-russia-ukraine-coverage-available-to-readers-in-those-countries/

[pppolitics]

So much disinfo and wishcasting. It's okay to condemn Russia but let's be honest about this situation.

What are people not being "honest" about?

...that Russian soldiers are poorly trained, have low morale, and are running out of supplies?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

So much disinfo and wishcasting. It's okay to condemn Russia but let's be honest about this situation.

Sort of curious as to what you believe has been posted that is 'disinfo' by people on this thread. Sure, we're all fairly Pro-Ukrainian, but largely it's just factual accounts, as best as we can get from various sources in a war-battered country, about the Russian invasion and very real war crimes that are being committed against Ukrainian civilians.

Hell, we even mourn the Russian dead, certainly more than Putin's egotistical ass does.

[Alben Barkley]

So much disinfo and wishcasting. It's okay to condemn Russia but let's be honest about this situation.

You make a mockery of everything America stands for.

By all means, surrender your passport and emigrate to your dream country of Russia or Belarus, traitor.

Isolationist paleocons disgust me, especially when they don't even have a remotely coherent ideology and try on political ideals like they are new sets of pajamas each day the way you do.

I hope to hell you are just a kid going through some stupid edgelord phase. If you are an adult with a supposedly developed mind, you are beyond saving. Literally the type of motherf--ker who would have sided with Father Coughlin, Charles Lindbergh, and the other "America First!" Nazis over FDR and the rest of the US. All of these people should have summarily had their citizenship stripped and been deported as far as I am concerned.

[BG-NY]

Sort of curious as to what you believe has been posted that is 'disinfo' by people on this thread.

Every single article and tweet. People are free to post whatever they want, but should be mindful of what they're sharing.