2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Blocking Sanders was supposed to prevent what happened in Miami-Dade from happening. Ironically Sanders was quite popular among Hispanics.

Mexicans are not Cubans, Colombians, or Venezuelans.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

..maybe Hillary wasn't such a bad candidate after all.

Just sayin'.

It would be a huge vindication for Hillary if Biden loses tonight.

If Biden had Tulsi or Yang as VP, would've got my vote. Too bad.

If becoming a meme is the requirement of getting a vote nowadays that's a sad statement in and of itself.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

What is happening with Kansas? Fox news currently has it light blue.

Also what is happening with Virginia? It's coloured blue but Trump appears to be ahead by 7 points based on a significant portion of the vote counted!

No votes in I'm assuming.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Even if Biden wins, Democrats need to understand that they live in a big bubble

Dump the racial politics, focus on economics for everyone---everyone

This thread has done nothing but make me want to blow bubbles and pop them over and over again.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Wisconsin isn't looking good for Biden.

Isn't the issue in Wisconsin a lack of count from Milwaukee and Madison?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

What's left in GA? Are we still waiting for ATL?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

MSNBC was projecting a gain of 11 Dem seats in the House....so where are they?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

I'm repeating this question, especially since Biden is "only" up by 7% in Maine and Susan Collins is holding her own against Gideon before RCV.

per DDHQ

So how is Gideon trailing by such a large margin?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

POLITICO has apparently projected Nancy Mace the winner over Joe Cunningham in South Carolina. And Chip Roy has won reelection against Wendy Davis in Texas. Republicans are definitely overperforming in the House as well tonight, although that chamber will stay in Democratic hands.

Republicans have overperformed downballot period. Democrats need to take a long, hard look at how they're running congressional campaigns.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Lets also be clear, if Trump wins re-election, he'll win again without the popular vote. How do you think that'll play with the population?

We're basically at two Americas at this point. We were already on the way there, but this just solidifies it.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

https://twitter.com/LiamWBZ/status/1324005540004057090?s=19

If this is correct my god

Not a single candidate should concede for a few weeks frankly.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Young affluent liberals from swing states need to stop moving in droves to liberal strongholds like NY and CA.

I think part of the story of "realignment" is polarization between the coasts and ultra urban areas/megacities (think metro-Chicago, metro-ATL, SF Bay) and every other part of the country increasing even further than thought possible. Basically it bodes really poorly for left-of-center politics nationally.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

For them to go full-on that path, they'd have to sacrifice voters in the Rust Belt. I don't see how they'd be able to maintain that kind of coalition.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record here with Puerto Rico, but seriously, we just saw the first step toward a 51st state. It's a "piss or get off the pot" referendum, statehood or independence. Statehood is leading right now. The government can't be forced to act, but surely Democrats will want to get behind this to improve their position for the 2022 midterms and 2024. Why is no one talking about it?

Yeah, I guess that's a bright spot. Sort of forgot about that in all the hullabaloo. Hard for me to see its clearing the Senate though.

Mitch will make sure that's a non-starter. Democrats have to win a Senate majority with the current states for Puerto Rico to be granted statehood.

GA is going to be huge next month.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

The swings in WI are super fascinating. Atlas is going to a field day analyzing all the results once we get the complete results. Looks like Biden won because of a few factors:
1) D Turnout in Milwaukee County: Hillary won +162K, while Biden won it by +183K
2) D Turnout in Dane County: Hillary won +132K, while Biden won it by +181K
3) Decreased R margins in WOW: Hillary lost by -104K, while Biden lost them by -97K depite a huge turnout increase

Combined, these 3 areas gave Hillary a net margin of +180K, while Biden won them by +267K

In the rest of WI, Hillary lost by -203K, while Biden lost by -246k!

So anyway looks like Kenosha county WI swung 2 points to the right,

Kenosha BUMP?

lol.

Rural-Urban polarization increasing even further.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

That's far too early from Gideon and I hope there isn't reason to regret it in the near future.

I don't see the point of this from Gideon. She should at least wait to see if RCV is triggered.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Who is ticket splitting for Collins still??

The weird thing is that it's ticket splitting specifically for Collins. Both Golden and Pingree seem to be fine.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Probably a stupid question but asking it because I haven't been able to pay as much attention today as I'd wanted to: when will we likely see the Presidency called? Sometime today? Tomorrow? Friday? December?

What's the likely timetable from here on out, & how will potential court cases & recounts factor into said timetable?

Friday will be the latest if it all comes down to votes in PA.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Why haven't they called Alaska? I mean, I'm pretty sure we all know that's going to Trump.

Alaska won't be counting its ballots for another week. We won't know anything definitive there for a while.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

When are we expecting more returns from GA?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

If we assume the GA pres race will narrow down to within a couple tenths of a point, that would indicate Perdue missing 50 by a very small margin.

Does anyone know what's left out in GA and an estimate of how much?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

If that's the case then Biden should win Georgia

What are the chances that Ossoff is carried across the finish line?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Apologies if this was asked recently, but what are the current predictions for North Carolina? I know it's been called for Trump and Tillis, but how close - or how distant - could it end up being in the end?

It hasn't been called yet.