Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

It's a 2017 redux. Think the Morning Joe panel saying Gillepsie would win on Election Day 2017.

[wbrocks67]

Everything that Roxas said.

It's quite possible this is closer than VA-GOV 2017, but at the same time, media is doing the same thing they did in 2017.

Not to mention, T-Mac is +3.3 right now, and that is WITH a +5 Youngkin poll in the mix. This race isn't a "dead heat". T-Mac has had the edge, even if it's a "smaller" relative one, the entire time.

[wbrocks67]

First the vaccine stuff and now this

https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1442252251008061446

[wbrocks67]

Cook doesn't even say, it's a pure toss-up. They say, McAuliffe has a slight age (and many fundamentals are towards him). Had they Tilt rating, they'd probably use that. They say also, that while GOP has enthusiasm advantage, for now, it can change as it did in CA.




Imo, not really a hot take.


No, they are not click-bate, quite the opposite. They need to deliver good analyses, otherwise why would people pay them for?

Or maybe pollsters are doing a really bad job at trying to "make up for mistakes" from 2020 and GOP never really had an enthusiasm edge in CA...

[wbrocks67]

You would never know that a new poll just had McAuliffe up 3, 5, 7 yesterday with all of the new 'Dems in disarray in VA' articles popping up

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/white-house-mcauliffe-514455

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/25/politics/virginia-governor-race-analysis/index.html

[wbrocks67]

You would never know that a new poll just had McAuliffe up 3, 5, 7 yesterday with all of the new 'Dems in disarray in VA' articles popping up

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/white-house-mcauliffe-514455

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/25/politics/virginia-governor-race-analysis/index.html

In what way are these articles are 'Dems in disarray in VA'? What's wrong with these articles?

Both articles are about how worried the Dems should be, despite virtually all polls showing T-Mac with at least a +3 lead (some with 5, 7, 9) and virtually being not critical at all towards Republicans, who have a candidate who has barely passed 44% in any of the polling.

[wbrocks67]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

who won the debate

IDK they both had stumbles-after stating he opposed COVID vaccine mandates, Youngkin was unable to respond coherently about how he would handle vaccines other than COVID that are already mandatory.  In response to a question about removing books from school libraries, McAuliffe said “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach.”  Those are the clips that either side is promoting.

This is the correct line to take.

Yeah, how is this a gaffe? Pretty sure even most liberal minded folks hate it when karens try and tell the school and teachers what to do.

[wbrocks67]

Given how toxic Trump is in Virginia, Youngkin made the biggest gaffe of the night with saying he would outright support Trump in 2024 - the man that literally caused an insurrection on the US capitol this year. That should strip him of any fake "moderate" status at this point.

[wbrocks67]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

who won the debate

IDK they both had stumbles-after stating he opposed COVID vaccine mandates, Youngkin was unable to respond coherently about how he would handle vaccines other than COVID that are already mandatory.  In response to a question about removing books from school libraries, McAuliffe said “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach.”  Those are the clips that either side is promoting.

This is the correct line to take.

Yeah, how is this a gaffe? Pretty sure even most liberal minded folks hate it when karens try and tell the school and teachers what to do.

I don't know that it's a gaffe, but it's the kind of statement that could be rocket fuel for the GOP base.  Even if it doesn't hurt on net in VA, it would be very dangerous in a state closer to the national average.

How is it rocket fuel for the GOP base though? Maybe I'm misreading what he said, but I'm pretty sure the idea of "parents need to stay out of the schools business" in the general sense is a VERY bipartisan idea.

[wbrocks67]

Not really paying attention to this race tbh but have the "black voters are not energized" articles started yet? Those were all over the place in 2017.

I'm sure they're on the way

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/christinafreund/status/1443343610838142980?s=20

Big Youngkin momentum!

Yuck. This makes me trust T Mac even less. If a CoC isn't all in for the Republican, something is very amiss in the Democratic party.

Why can't you just accept the Republican Party is alienating people?

Are they? Because polls show a close race here. The GOP losing CoC types but picking up blue collar minorities is not a trade I'd want to make, and right now that looks like the most likely outcome.

Might not be a big deal in upper middle class Virginia, but it would be devastating for what's left of the Midwest, and would dash any hopes of a blue Texas.

Youngkin has had like 3% black support in most of the polls and Latino support seems about on the same level as 2016/2020, so not sure where you're getting that impression in VA at least.

[wbrocks67]

Chaz nuttycombe says dems will lose 10 to 15 seats in the house of delegates.

He said that this is what would happen if Youngkin actually wins.

Why is jimmie in here posting wrong information then. Can people not?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Catalist_US/status/1445798810765049858

[wbrocks67]

POLITICO has run out of all other dems in disarray takes, so now we're focusing on fundraising emails - which historically have *always* been alarmist. This is just getting embarrassing

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1447230803189145613

[wbrocks67]

Abrams is going this weekend, so I suspect more high profile Dems will continue thru the closing weeks.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1447512761701969924

[wbrocks67]

The Commonwealth of Virginia does not have party identification by voter registration in the voter file.  So, in a state like Virginia, L2 models party ID by primary ballot selection and L2 modeling. If you have questions regarding this, please feel free to send us an email, a tweet.

Statewide Party
Likely Dems: 187,428 (6.35% of total Likely Dem electorate)
Likely Indep:  13,871 (1.33% of total Likely Indep electorate)
Likely Rep:  85,499 (5.24% of total Likely Rep electorate)

https://l2-data.com/2021/10/11/demographic-analysis-of-virginia-10-10-21/

[wbrocks67]

Obama to VA on 10/23. So I assume Kamala and Joe likely weekend of halloween, a la CA.

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1447907801196605455

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1448000768045289473

Terry needs to run with this message. Run with the Trumpkin message. Abortion rights, voting rights, 1/6, audits, etc. Despite Trumpkin trying to 'moderate' himself, he has a lot of baggage that Terry can objectively go after.

[wbrocks67]

If you were Youngkin you really want to see more crossover from 2020 in these polls. Maybe they have something internally but being down 3 in a Biden +2 sample isn't really confidence inspiring. This electorate even with a Dem dropoff is unlikely to be below Biden +7-8.

No, you don't adjust polling for recalled vote.  It's well documented that people "forget" that they voted for incumbents who are currently unpopular.  We've seen this all the time. 

Regardless, Trumpkin is not getting any crossover vote. So even if you assume Biden +5 electorate, McAuliffe is winning by like 6 or 7, given this poll. Youngkin cannot afford to have 0% crossover support unless Biden voters just literally don't come out at all.

[wbrocks67]

Of note: in CNN's new national poll out today, Biden's approval is 58/42 among White College+, which could certainly make the midterms (and this race) very interesting.

Overall approval is 50/49 (nationally).

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/lizchar/status/1448019083891552261

Youngkin's campaign is like a well-oiled machine.  His hand is on the pulse of what Virginia voters care about.

which is so funny considering in an objective sense, vaccine mandates would do the opposite, and actually push more people to get vaccinated, and enjoy Christmas gatherings even more. does Youngkin want people to get covid for the holidays or something?

[wbrocks67]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

Early voting turnout (which benefits Democrats) is horrendous, including in most blue regions. I don’t see how T-Mac wins by single high digits like certain users on here claim- this isn’t the turnout required for an 8 point win in the state so far.

Funny, because despite only 200-300k early ballots being cast in 2017, Northam still won by 9!

It's very possible that many people are just going to vote in person this time around in VA because that's what they've usually done in the past. Comparing 2020 is just not prudent at this point in any circumstance.

[wbrocks67]

One thing is evident:

Virginia voters do not see Glenn youngkin as some monster the way red avatars on this board do.

He might lose, but the numbers just do not suggest he is hated

Pretty sure no one has said that Youngkin is "hated" or that he's a "monster."

[wbrocks67]

Whatever this thing Trump was involved in last night in VA sounds like a hot mess and perfect for the McAuliffe campaign to go after in ads.

Have they been using the Youngkin college vaccine audio? That's still the most damning IMO.

[wbrocks67]

The HS story in Loudoun is already picking up steam. The Washington Post posted an article about it. If Democrats were to fall flat in November, their mishandling of schools would be the primary factor for that.

How are they "mishandling" schools? If you're talking about CRT, this is an issue that once again is not an actual thing, and the only people who are writing articles about it are basically wishcasting that it would happen.

Not sure if anyone here actually teaches or knows someone who teaches in public schools. CRT is not a real thing that happens, and if it does, it's in less than 1% of public schools across the nation.

The media would like this to be another MS-13, which if we remember, was supposed to be such a huge issue in VA in 2017 b/c the GOP wanted it to be (a la CRT), and the media obliged, like they always do.