Canadian Election 2019

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

True, but we should note a few key differences from Adscam/2004: Paul Martin wasn't implicated directly in the scandal like Trudeau is. The Tories had only existed for 6 months on E day 2004 and their predecessors were in chaos. Lastly, the Martin-Liberals were polling much, much higher than the Trudeau-Liberals pre scandal breaking. People were speculating about a 200 seat majority in 2003.

Trudeau could definitely still survive, but I think the comparison to the Sponsorship Scandal only goes so far.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

Yes and no.  Harper was ahead despite the party being less than six months old for much of the campaign, but lost due to a number of bozo eruptions by candidates, much the same way the Wildrose party lose in Alberta in 2012.  Tories are more established so have better infrastructure although on the bozo eruptions part it could go either way.  Being more established they will probably due to a better job of vetting candidates at the same time with social media its not just bozo eruptions during the campaign, but even ones from 10 years ago and you can bet the war rooms from each party will scroll through people's twitter accounts carefully and publicize anyone that can help paint the party as extreme.  Also sponsorship scandal was more seen as something to do with Chretien not Paul Martin whereas Trudeau was directly implicated here.  So certainly I think that does suggest those suggesting it will mean Trudeau will be defeated are wrong, but also it could be fatal although won't necessarily.

When were the Tories up in 04? The chart on Wikipedia showed them improving from a large deficit, but they never took the lead at least during the campaign.

[DC Al Fine]

Another Layton-Mulcair frontbencher, Nathan Cullen announced he isn't running in 2019.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/janephilpott/status/1102660614307172352

Was already posted in the General Discussion thread, but seemed relevant to election analysis.

[DC Al Fine]

New poll from Ipsos

40-31-20

[DC Al Fine]

Does this all get forgotten 3-4 months from now like Indiagate?

Nah. Even if he survives this, the scandal is too big to just forget. India just made him look silly. This scandal and how he's handling cuts to the core of his brand.

Does anybody here think there is a chance if things get bad enough Trudeau will resign before the election or do you think regardless of what happens he is staying on as leader until e-day.

I mean, if the Liberals drop below the NDP, maybe he quits, but otherwise I doubt it.

[DC Al Fine]

To elaborate on the Innovative Research numbers Miles mentioned:
Liberal: 36%
Conservative: 32%
NDP: 13%
Green: 9%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 5%

More or less unchanged from their pre-scandal polling.

[DC Al Fine]

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Agree on seat count. The Liberals could very well win 50+ seats in Quebec on 35% of the vote, which would go a long way to offset their 905 losses.

I'm not so sure about your assertion that the Tories will only form a government if they have a majority though. In the vast majority (all?) of the recent successful attempts to form a government excluding the party with the most seats, the excluded first place party has been a long serving, unpopular incumbent (e.g. BC 2017, Ontario 1985). An ABC coalition or accord makes sense if say Harper had a minority in 2015, but I don't think the optics would make as much sense for the NDP now given that:

a) They would propping up a Trudeau government that just got it's wrist slapped for corruption.

b) Scheer doesn't trigger progressives like a Ford or Harper figure.

It's certainly possible that they keep Trudeau in power even if he finishes 2nd, but I'm not seeing a compelling reason why the NDP are certain to do that rather than letting Scheer form a minority government and forcing an election in 6-18 months.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, the Quebec NDP is not panicking and they keep announcing decently known candidates. The wife of Amir Khadir in Laurier--Saint-Marie. I know then here, in Abitibi, to replace Saganash, there is actually 2 candidates, one of them being a mayoress.

To add to what MaxQue said, the NDP have a better chance than one would normally expect given their poor polling in Quebec, especially now that the Liberals have come back down to their 2015 result. Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie and Laurier-Sainte Marie are especially good candidates for NDP holds.

Both seats have a good sized NDP margin, and no other party in the area is an obvious candidate to take lots of votes from the NDP. The Liberals are too federalist, the Tories too conservative, and the Bloc's more rightish anti-immigration approach is a bad fit for the area.

Heck, the Tories managed to hold a seat in Quebec on like 5% of the vote in 2000 I won't count the NDP totally out yet.

[DC Al Fine]

Back to the riding in question... it's Laurier-Sainte Marie. The Tories got 4% there last time. I don't think ABC strategic voting will be a problem for the NDP there.

[DC Al Fine]

Given the electoral geography right now, I'd guess the Tories can't drop much below 40% before getting into minority territory. Trudeau will likely win a lot of Quebec seats on ~35%, and the Tories will waste tons of votes out West.

[DC Al Fine]

CBC says Grit caucus wants to expel JWR and Philpott next week. The recording is indeed with Wernick.

Link to audio for those interested

Wernick and Trudeau do not come off well here. Tape disproves Butts claim about government not knowing. JWR was upset.

[DC Al Fine]

JWR and Philpott could be expelled from caucus as early as tonight.

That seems like it would be an extremely counter-productive decision for the Liberals, especially now that the tape has been released.

Let's toss the whistleblower (who has tons of evidence) out of caucus. Surely this won't harm the Liberal Party brand or our chances of re-election

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/tvanouvelles/status/1113153214264770565

Special Grit caucus in 3 hours to expel JWR and Philpott.

Aaaannnd, she's gone.

In the face of these scandals coming out, does Trudeau survive & win reelection as PM ?

Canada is notorious for having unexpected swings but...I do not expect this to end well for the Liberals, especially now that JWR has been expelled from caucus.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/tvanouvelles/status/1113153214264770565

Special Grit caucus in 3 hours to expel JWR and Philpott.

Aaaannnd, she's gone.

In the face of these scandals coming out, does Trudeau survive & win reelection as PM ?

Canada is notorious for having unexpected swings but...I do not expect this to end well for the Liberals, especially now that JWR has been expelled from caucus.

Personally it seems like JWR was trying to extort to stay in power, seeing the texts that she sent out that where just released. 

Perhaps in isolation, but given the broader range of evidence, and the Prime Minister not letting JWR discuss the period the texts cover, it seems like a small piece of pro-Liberal evidence in a sea of anti-Liberal evidence and coverage.

Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.

Can't imagine the Tories doing that. NDP, probably not either. Greens would do it in a heartbeat.

Agreed. Her seat is just a little too winnable for the Tories and NDP. I could kind of see it if she represented a seat where one or both of them had no hope, but her seat is definitely in play if the Liberals falter... especially if a strong independent candidate is in the mix.

[DC Al Fine]

This poll also says that across the City of Vancouver federal Liberal support has collapsed to 25%, tied with the CPC while the NDP leads with 33% thestar.com/vancouver/2019

Another poll out yesterday shows a similar pattern in Winnipeg- big Liberal drop from 2015 and NDP gaining ground

That ought to put Vancouver Granville and Vancouver South in play.

There’s no way Hedy Fry loses my riding.

Probably not though if she retired that seat would be totally up for grabs. Sometimes people do stay past the best before date. Jim Bradly was supposed to be unbeatable for the Ontario Liberals after having been an MPP since 1977 and then last June he finally lost. I get the sense that Hedy Fry has a certain iconic image but that she has just been calling it in lately and isn’t doing much of anything and thinks she can coast with a “job for life”

Fry also had the advantage of winning a seat that has since become much more favourable to the Liberals thanks to demographic changes and realignment. Bradley was more akin to those dinosaur Blue Dogs who got swept away in 2010.

[DC Al Fine]

A riding poll has been commissioned for a hypothetical Jody Wilson-Raybould independent run in Vancouver-Granville

JWR: 33%
Liberal:24%
NDP: 21%
Conservative: 15%

[DC Al Fine]

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.

[DC Al Fine]

Rodger Cuzner, one of the best MPs in Ottawa is retiring. (he was the MP for Cape Breton-Canso)

Safe for the Grits, but this is their 5th retirement from Nova Scotia (Brison, Casey, Eyking, and C Fraser also.) Casey's seat will likely go blue, Fraser's is also at risk. The others are all advantage for the Liberals; Brison's old seat of Kings-Hants is the most vulnerable of the likely/safe Liberal districts here.

It will be interesting to see how much of the Liberals' Kings-Hants margin was Brison's personal vote. He was very popular there, but the riding is also more naturally Liberal than a typical rural Anglo one.

[DC Al Fine]

One thing has not been discussed very at all is what happens with the Senate if Scheer forms a government. Right now about three-quarters of the Senate is composed of either Liberals or liberals (in other words the non-partisans Trudeau has appointed). These non-partisans in the Senate will not feel bound by any convention to hold their nose and pass government legislation and as a result a Scheer government would quickly face a constitutional crisis as a result of not being able to pass much of its legislation thorugh the Senate

As opposed to the Liberal majority Senate Harper faced initially?

[DC Al Fine]

What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

Retaining his majority will be tough but not impossible as I've seen leaders further back in the polls stage comebacks.  Christy Clark going into 2013, Greg Selinger going into 2011, Dalton McGuinty going into 2011, Jean Charest going into 2007, and Brian Mulroney going into 1988 were all further back so it is doable.  Holding his majority will be a challenge, but minority still possible.  If Tories fall short of a majority he probably remains PM as I almost certain NDP and Greens will back Liberals over Tories.  If BQ holds the balance of power then things could get interesting, but probably another election within a year.  A Tory majority looked far fetched six months ago while now much more realistic, but again a lot will depend on how Scheer performs on the campaign trail.

How long could an arrangement like a minority Trudeau gov't last, realistically? I'm guessing nothing more than a couple years

Depends on what type of minority:

1.  Liberal Minority 2-3 years.  NDP will be broke and depending on how they do may even involve a leadership convention so won't want to bring down the government too quickly.  May pledge to support them for a full four years with certain conditions, but Trudeau has the upper hand so could ignore them.  Tories won't support them, but may abstain if their poll numbers aren't great and if Scheer resigns (unlikely since if he gains seats probably gets a second chance) will wait until new leader is in.

2.  Conservatives win plurality of seats, but Liberals form government with support from NDP and maybe Greens - at least 2 years maybe full four.  In this case will probably want an iron clad guarantee from opposition to support for certain time period and in turn the NDP and maybe Greens will probably have certain conditions in exchange for support.  I am thinking for NDP, promise to implement universal Pharmacare will be one.  They want won't to pull the plug until fully implemented as risk Tories would cancel it if they win, but once fully implemented too risky to undo.  Tories will stomp their feet and complain how it is an illegitimate government, but won't be able to bring it down.

3.  Conservative minority - 1-2 years - This will happen if Liberals + NDP + Greens fall short of 170 seats and need to rely on BQ orTrudeau decides to resign and let Scheer govern (latter seems unlikely, but I put it in just to cover all bases).  In this case Liberals and NDP won't bring down the government until they have a full war chest and in case of Liberals until they have a new leader in place, so will abstain on confidence matters, but once those are in order will bring them down.  Also like Harper, opposition parties make take turns abstaining since if it requires all them to bring them government down, so Scheer just has to hope one of them has lousy poll numbers as parties rarely bring down a government if their polls tell them they will lose seats.

There's another plausible (and somewhat likely in my opinion) Tory minority scenario:

Liberal+NDP have a majority. Scheer still forms a government, not because Trudeau decided to go quietly but because either:

a) Trudeau and Singh cannot come to a working agreement.

b) The NDP decides that it isn't in their best interest to prop up a scandal ridden Trudeau government

In which case we probably get new elections within 18 months.

As I've said before, I think Atlas and other political social media groups overstate the likelihood of the Liberals and NDP working together to overcome a Tory plurality. I get the impression that they conflate the interests of the Liberals and NDP with the interests of progressive voters active on social media.

In Canada these sort of arrangements have typically been to topple an unpopular incumbent. That has very different optics than the NDP making an agreement with a Prime Minister they just spent the last six months (rightly) slamming as corrupt and arrogant.

A Liberal-NDP agreement certainly isn't impossible or even unlikely, but to simply dismiss the historic norm for minority election results is veering into the sort of "here's how Bernie can still win" type of error we political junkies are prone to.

->BC
CPC - 27.32%
LPC - 26%
NDP - 24.88%
GRN - 21.80%
- Both the NDP and Greens have gained 10 point since the beginning of April (10ish and 8ish point gains)

Man that would be an interesting result.

[DC Al Fine]

There's another plausible (and somewhat likely in my opinion) Tory minority scenario:

Liberal+NDP have a majority. Scheer still forms a government, not because Trudeau decided to go quietly but because either:

a) Trudeau and Singh cannot come to a working agreement.

b) The NDP decides that it isn't in their best interest to prop up a scandal ridden Trudeau government

In which case we probably get new elections within 18 months.

As I've said before, I think Atlas and other political social media groups overstate the likelihood of the Liberals and NDP working together to overcome a Tory plurality. I get the impression that they conflate the interests of the Liberals and NDP with the interests of progressive voters active on social media.

In Canada these sort of arrangements have typically been to topple an unpopular incumbent. That has very different optics than the NDP making an agreement with a Prime Minister they just spent the last six months (rightly) slamming as corrupt and arrogant.

A Liberal-NDP agreement certainly isn't impossible or even unlikely, but to simply dismiss the historic norm for minority election results is veering into the sort of "here's how Bernie can still win" type of error we political junkies are prone to.

I have to disagree.

a) Trudeau and Singh don't need to come to any agreement. Trudeau is the incumbent and he has a right to present a Throne speech and try to govern. As an NDP member myself, i know that party pretty well. There is zero chance that the NDP would vote with the Tories to topple Trudeau at that stage knowing that it would mean Scheer forming government and then having to pass Throne speech himself - and if that failed we would face a second election the same year and there would be absolutely no upside for the NDP in triggering that. Does anyone seriously think the NDP would vote against a Liberal Throne speech that would likely be heavily larded with items relating to pharmacare and child care and the environment so that two weeks later they could vote in favour of a Tory Throne speech that would be full of draconian cuts to social spending, anti-labour stuff, lots of climate change denial and tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy etc...

There may be lots of "narcissism of small difference" issues that separate the Liberals and NDP - but seriously i can think of lots of policy concession that the Liberals would be only too happy to make to stay in power. In contrast I cannot think of ANY policy whatsoever where the Tories and NDP have any common ground (can you?). There would literally be nothing to discuss. On top of that while NDP MPs and insiders may see the Liberals as their competition for votes, they also tend to see the Reformatories under Scheer as an existential threat to Canada and as a "mini-Trump"

b) while the SNC Lavalin affair is a "thing" its a stretch to call this a "scandal ridden" government. A true scandal ridden government was the Liberal government of the early 00s what with the sponsorship scandal. As you may recall, the NDP made a deal with Paul Martin that was widely seen as a good deal from an NDP perspective and the NDP gained seats in the subsequent election

I should clarify: When I talked about 'Liberal-NDP' agreements, I meant either a coalition or a formal BC/NB style confidence and supply agreement.  I still think that is quite unlikely given the optics of the scenario.

Trading policy concessions for votes on a case by case basis  is a totally different matter, and of course has a long history in Canadian politics. I can definitely see something like Pharmacare for Throne Speech votes happening. Propping up the 2nd place PM has less history, but its also more precedented and way less problematic from the NDP than a coalition.

Now to quibble with your account: it doesn't follow that the NDP would have to vote for a Tory throne speech just because they voted down a Liberal one. Indeed something similar happened in 2007, where the NDP voted down a Liberal amendment to a Tory throne speech, and the Tory throne speech itself, forcing a game of chicken with the Liberals. The Liberals wound up abstaining. That seems like a plausible outcome as well.

[DC Al Fine]

One thing has not been discussed very at all is what happens with the Senate if Scheer forms a government. Right now about three-quarters of the Senate is composed of either Liberals or liberals (in other words the non-partisans Trudeau has appointed). These non-partisans in the Senate will not feel bound by any convention to hold their nose and pass government legislation and as a result a Scheer government would quickly face a constitutional crisis as a result of not being able to pass much of its legislation thorugh the Senate

As opposed to the Liberal majority Senate Harper faced initially?

In 2006 it actually did cause problems for Harper to face a Liberal majority in the senate, BUT there was a huge difference. Those Liberal senators formed a caucus and they were all part of the old regime where there was a tacit acknowledgement that the appointed Senate should not reject bills passed by the elected Senate. We are in uncharted waters now with a majority of the senate now sitting as Independents who all think that the fact they are senators chosen for their personal qualities and not for having been party bagmen in the past and that this makes them God's gift to the world and they see themselves as having a legitimacy that the old partisan senators did not have. No one can tell them what to do and I suspect they will not hesitate to vote down Tory measures they don't like. Scheer may have to "pack" the senate like Mulroney did in 1988 

Hmm that's an interesting question. Just eyeballing it, but it looks like the number of Tory + Toryish independent senators is still short of a majority, even with the Senate packing provision. That would be a fun constitutional crisis

[DC Al Fine]

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

[DC Al Fine]

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint