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adma
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« Reply #200 on: March 05, 2019, 06:46:03 PM »

Jane Phippott just resigned from cabinet so looks like the bottom of this hasn't come yet.  Her riding no doubt was one of the top Tory targets of Liberal cabinet ministers.  Went PC provincially by almost 20 points and she only narrowly won so only Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton-Mill Woods) I would say was in greater danger, maybe Karina Gould (Burlington), and Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) not too far behind although in case of Burlington that is more your traditional fiscally conservative but socially liberal area, otherwise similar to Conservative-Remain areas in UK and Romney-Clinton in the US so with a uniform swing more vulnerable, but looking at demographics and provincial results perhaps not.  Either way this is a huge blow to the Liberals and while not fatal by any means, Trudeau needs to find a way to turn this around quickly if he wants to stop it from spiraling out of control.

By York Region standards, Philpott's win wasn't *that* narrow--in fact, it was the Libs' second best in York after McCallum's seat.  And likewise, provincially, it was the Tories' second lowest share in York (after Newmarket-Aurora) and second lowest margin (after Vaughan-Woodbridge).

And I would say it's because it's the most "Burlingtonian" seat in York Region, i.e. it's got more affluent non-ethnoburban gentility than the rest, the kind that finds CPC/Ford populism a bit on the coarse side.  (Food for thought: in the Ballantrae Golf Club gated community, which one'd "normally" expect to be a Conservative stronghold, the provincial PCs only prevailed over the Liberals by 4 points last year.)



True enough although Whitchurch-Stouffville still has a rural feel to it.  Also Calandra got 42% federally so that is a pretty solid base to work from.  In both cases it would be for Ontario Cons +7 as Conservative support is around 7 points above whatever Conservative support is overall in Ontario.  So if Conservatives fall below 35%, then only if NDP does much better than expected can they pick this up.  If in upper 30s will depend on if NDP stays in single digits or rises to double, while if Tories get over 40% in Ontario, they will almost certainly flip this one.  So I think overall Ontario numbers will be a good guess so if under 35% for Tories stays Liberal 35-40% for Tories could go either way and if over 40% Tories then they flip it.

Actually, I'm not denying the likelihood of the Cons winning it (or *any* seat in Ontario where they still managed a 40%+ share in loss).  I'm merely stating that it's not *as* Conservative as it seems--which is a reason why, despite Whitchurch-Stouffville and Calandra's incumbency, it flipped in 2015 while Markham-Unionville went the other way; up to that point, conventional wisdom would have had it the other way around.  And even rural Whitchurch-Stouffville isn't the dominant rightward-pushing factor it once might have been, what with Stouffville proper rapidly suburbanizing (and the aforementioned Ballantrae GC being in the rural part).

That is, even before her cabinet-resignation-on-principle, Philpott would, in the event of Justinian electoral disaster, probably still have kept (with the help of riding demos) some electoral dignity intact--a federal version of what happened provincially last year to Steven Del Duca or (even more to the point) Charles Sousa or Kevin Flynn.
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« Reply #201 on: March 05, 2019, 07:28:19 PM »

Does this all get forgotten 3-4 months from now like Indiagate?
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Krago
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« Reply #202 on: March 05, 2019, 10:59:30 PM »

Wilson-Raybould threw it all away just to make Justin look ridiculous.

And a man in his position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #203 on: March 05, 2019, 11:38:43 PM »

Does anybody here think there is a chance if things get bad enough Trudeau will resign before the election or do you think regardless of what happens he is staying on as leader until e-day.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #204 on: March 06, 2019, 05:41:23 AM »

Does this all get forgotten 3-4 months from now like Indiagate?

Nah. Even if he survives this, the scandal is too big to just forget. India just made him look silly. This scandal and how he's handling cuts to the core of his brand.

Does anybody here think there is a chance if things get bad enough Trudeau will resign before the election or do you think regardless of what happens he is staying on as leader until e-day.

I mean, if the Liberals drop below the NDP, maybe he quits, but otherwise I doubt it.
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Harlow
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« Reply #205 on: March 06, 2019, 09:48:45 AM »

New poll from Nanos:

34.7% CPC (+1.1)
34.2% LPC (-1.5)
15.5% NDP (+0.5)
  9.1% GPC (+0.7)
  3.6% BQ (-0.1)
  0.7% PPC (-0.5)
  2.2% Others (-0.2)


This is the second-best federal poll for the Greens since 2015. Will be interesting to see whether they pick up any votes from turned-off Liberals.
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« Reply #206 on: March 06, 2019, 11:45:07 AM »

New poll from Nanos:

34.7% CPC (+1.1)
34.2% LPC (-1.5)
15.5% NDP (+0.5)
  9.1% GPC (+0.7)
  3.6% BQ (-0.1)
  0.7% PPC (-0.5)
  2.2% Others (-0.2)


This is the second-best federal poll for the Greens since 2015. Will be interesting to see whether they pick up any votes from turned-off Liberals.

I'd be more interested in if they can take from the NDP.  I'm beginning to wonder if there's any possibility the Greens could actually beat the NDP in votes?  Or if the Greens could get Official Party Status?  (Though I recognize both are very long shots.)
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Harlow
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« Reply #207 on: March 06, 2019, 02:23:28 PM »

New poll from Nanos:

34.7% CPC (+1.1)
34.2% LPC (-1.5)
15.5% NDP (+0.5)
  9.1% GPC (+0.7)
  3.6% BQ (-0.1)
  0.7% PPC (-0.5)
  2.2% Others (-0.2)


This is the second-best federal poll for the Greens since 2015. Will be interesting to see whether they pick up any votes from turned-off Liberals.

I'd be more interested in if they can take from the NDP.  I'm beginning to wonder if there's any possibility the Greens could actually beat the NDP in votes?  Or if the Greens could get Official Party Status?  (Though I recognize both are very long shots.)

I mean yeah, they’ll be taking from both, but I specifically meant I’m interested in seeing whether the current fallout from SNC-Lavalain will move Liberals to Green and whether those numbers will hold if so.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #208 on: March 06, 2019, 03:32:16 PM »

Abacus is out to today and very bad numbers for the Liberals, not just topline but government now has an approval rating of only 34% while 48% disapprove and positive impression of Trudeau is down to 33%, negative at 46%.  At year's end approval rating and impression of Trudeau was slightly positive.  Looks like it was a tie from Christmas to mid February and then Tories pulled ahead.  https://abacusdata.ca/has-the-snc-lavalin-wilson-raybould-controversy-impacted-public-opinion/

Conservative 36%
Liberal 30%
NDP 17%
Green 9%
BQ 5%
Others 3%

So I think notwithstanding Innovative research numbers this is taking a toll on the Liberals.  Will it be fatal, not necessarily as a lot can change.  There is a chance Tories are peaking too early since as long as they are behind no one pays attention to them, but once it looks like they might win focus shifts.  At the same time the Liberals absolutely cannot afford to slide further since if when they go on summer recess if they still have numbers like this, they can probably rule out of a majority and while need to rely on Scheer stumbling to even get a minority.  But this could be a flash in the pan and as this fades off front page news numbers could recover.  I remember in 2005 when the Jean Brault testimony at the Sponsorship scandal let to the Tories opening up a 13 point lead which was in April 2005, but by July of 2005 Liberals were back in front with a 10 point lead.  Now true Harper ultimately did win but he stayed behind until January 2006.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #209 on: March 08, 2019, 10:13:48 AM »

To elaborate on the Innovative Research numbers Miles mentioned:
Liberal: 36%
Conservative: 32%
NDP: 13%
Green: 9%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 5%

More or less unchanged from their pre-scandal polling.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #210 on: March 08, 2019, 10:29:52 AM »

To elaborate on the Innovative Research numbers Miles mentioned:
Liberal: 36%
Conservative: 32%
NDP: 13%
Green: 9%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 5%

More or less unchanged from their pre-scandal polling.

Worth noting they seem to use a fixed panel rather than random sampling. That may result in a stickier sample even if it is weighted.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #211 on: March 10, 2019, 02:30:44 PM »

Big question is whether Trudeau survives the scandal ?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #212 on: March 10, 2019, 04:42:45 PM »

Big question is whether Trudeau survives the scandal ?

With no obvious successor I think he will.  As for winning in October, agreed a majority is going to be an uphill battle but not impossible especially if both Scheer and Singh underperform.  Likewise if he has some big bold promise that is popular with the public like lets see universal pharmacare that might help too.  Still I think there is a better than even chance he remains PM since as long as Liberals + NDP + Greens get at least 170 seats he stays on even if Tories win a plurality.  Now I don't think he will rely on the BQ so if Tories + BQ is greater than 170 seats Scheer becomes PM, but since BQ is more left wing than right wing probably doesn't pass a lot and has to run a fairly centrist govt risk losing on a non-confidence.  Now if Tories + PPC get over 170 seats then expect a very right wing government, but asides Bernier's own riding, I don't see PPC winning anywhere else and even there I think it will be a tough fight. 

As for Tories getting a majority, unlike six months ago it is now at least plausible but still an uphill battle.  Liberals still ahead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec even if things have tightened a bit while still competitive in Ontario and British Columbia.  Tories need a solid lead in the last two mentioned to win a majority, winning half the seats in both won't be enough.  Prairies should largely go Tory and outside Winnipeg will probably be able to count the non-Tory seats on one hand.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #213 on: March 12, 2019, 01:03:32 AM »

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.
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« Reply #214 on: March 12, 2019, 01:52:31 AM »

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

In terms of raw support, the NDP seem to have been the main beneficiary of this scandal.
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DL
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« Reply #215 on: March 12, 2019, 09:03:43 AM »

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #216 on: March 12, 2019, 11:58:16 AM »

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Generally concor although if Tories + BQ are a majority not sure Liberals would want to rely on them mind you not sure BQ would want to support either so suspect it would be short lived.  If Tories win a plurality I don't think it would last the full four years but probably at least 2 maybe 3 years.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #217 on: March 12, 2019, 12:23:13 PM »

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Generally concor although if Tories + BQ are a majority not sure Liberals would want to rely on them mind you not sure BQ would want to support either so suspect it would be short lived.  If Tories win a plurality I don't think it would last the full four years but probably at least 2 maybe 3 years.

Makes sense, But as we've seen the CONs can get at least 4-5 years out of minority, 2006-2011. But if i'm not mistaken the CONs relied more on the LPC for support then either the BQ or NDP?
2006 & 2007 Budgets were CONs + BQ
2008, 2009, 2010 Budgets were CONs + LPC (2010, about 30 LPC MPs abstained)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #218 on: March 12, 2019, 12:27:33 PM »

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Generally concor although if Tories + BQ are a majority not sure Liberals would want to rely on them mind you not sure BQ would want to support either so suspect it would be short lived.  If Tories win a plurality I don't think it would last the full four years but probably at least 2 maybe 3 years.

Makes sense, But as we've seen the CONs can get at least 4-5 years out of minority, 2006-2011. But if i'm not mistaken the CONs relied more on the LPC for support then either the BQ or NDP?
2006 & 2007 Budgets were CONs + BQ
2008, 2009, 2010 Budgets were CONs + LPC (2010, about 30 LPC MPs abstained)

I suspect if such happened we would be back to the polls in under a year.  BQ and CPC have little in common but BQ and Liberals for obvious reasons won't work together either.  LPC might abstain but current LPC is more left wing in both party membership and caucus than it was back then.  A lot would probably more than anything depend on public opinion polls and what the public wanted as knowing an election could happen anytime soon parties would not want to do anything to hurt their chances.
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« Reply #219 on: March 12, 2019, 05:33:06 PM »

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

Nanos has a history of having pro Liberal numbers, which means it could be even worse for the Liberals.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #220 on: March 12, 2019, 07:53:45 PM »

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

Nanos has a history of having pro Liberal numbers, which means it could be even worse for the Liberals.

Actually since 2004, Nanos has been within a point of the actual result in their final polls so they have one of the best records.  They use CATI which while expensive is the most accurate and usually what parties use for internal polls.
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adma
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« Reply #221 on: March 12, 2019, 08:54:25 PM »

In terms of raw support, the NDP seem to have been the main beneficiary of this scandal.

Well, a double-barrelled beneficiary--of the scandal, and of finally having their leader in Parliament.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #222 on: March 13, 2019, 07:24:44 AM »

In terms of raw support, the NDP seem to have been the main beneficiary of this scandal.

Well, a double-barrelled beneficiary--of the scandal, and of finally having their leader in Parliament.

Agreed. IF Jagmeet performs well/above expectations or even at expectations, the NDPs numbers should go up even more. If Jagmeet under performs the NDP could see their numbers drop even with the scandal.

The LPC is already showing its desperation with the "well it's us or Scheer" tactics to bolster their left-flank, which while very desperate (and completely false) is a known tactic to rally progressives to the anyone-but-conservative. It's a terrible tactic but can work, even though in 2015 the LPC benefited from this NOT working, as the third party in the House ended up winning even when the NDP was in the better position at that time.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #223 on: March 13, 2019, 07:25:10 AM »

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Agree on seat count. The Liberals could very well win 50+ seats in Quebec on 35% of the vote, which would go a long way to offset their 905 losses.

I'm not so sure about your assertion that the Tories will only form a government if they have a majority though. In the vast majority (all?) of the recent successful attempts to form a government excluding the party with the most seats, the excluded first place party has been a long serving, unpopular incumbent (e.g. BC 2017, Ontario 1985). An ABC coalition or accord makes sense if say Harper had a minority in 2015, but I don't think the optics would make as much sense for the NDP now given that:

a) They would propping up a Trudeau government that just got it's wrist slapped for corruption.

b) Scheer doesn't trigger progressives like a Ford or Harper figure.

It's certainly possible that they keep Trudeau in power even if he finishes 2nd, but I'm not seeing a compelling reason why the NDP are certain to do that rather than letting Scheer form a minority government and forcing an election in 6-18 months.
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adma
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« Reply #224 on: March 13, 2019, 05:46:11 PM »


b) Scheer doesn't trigger progressives like a Ford or Harper figure.


Actually, anyone party to "left" social media will tell you that he *does*--if more by way of extension from Ford/Harper (and beyond that, Trump, Yellow Vests, Pizzagate nutters, etc).  And it's not like he's given signals of moderation the way that Patrick Brown did as Ontario PC leader--probably because he also seeks to ward off rightward leakage to Bernier...
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