KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Horsemask]

Likely R, but close to Safe R. Ah well.

[morgieb]

I'll keep it as Likely R for now, but I strongly doubt Bollier can run 10+ points ahead of Biden given Marshall is a strong candidate who's within the realms of normalcy.

Who says Marshall is a strong candidate? His fundraising was also very lackluster.

He's a generic and inoffensive, and that really should be enough. He's not exceptionally strong, but he's also not actively terrible like Kobach.

He also ran a strong enough campaign to roll Kobach in the first place; if he was a weak candidate he likely loses the primary.

[tmthforu94]

Well so much for that. On the plus side we won't have to worry about a potential Senator Kobach, and maybe he can go away forever now.

Yeah, I don't know his other options, 26% is a very low statewide number. I suppose he could run for the 3rd district seat in the future, but he'd get slaughtered and he knows it. My guess is he begs for a position in the TRUMP administraiton if he is reelected, otherwise he becomes a lobbyist/media pundit.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this race isn't Titanium Marshall by any standards.

https://twitter.com/lindsaywise/status/1291368682917113857

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well so much for that. On the plus side we won't have to worry about a potential Senator Kobach, and maybe he can go away forever now.

Yeah, I don't know his other options, 26% is a very low statewide number. I suppose he could run for the 3rd district seat in the future, but he'd get slaughtered and he knows it. My guess is he begs for a position in the TRUMP administraiton if he is reelected, otherwise he becomes a lobbyist/media pundit.

As long as he never ends up being a Republican nominee for President, as I feared he could be if he became Senator, I don't really care what his ass ends up doing in the future.

[Chips]

Strong Likely R. Marshall by eight or nine points.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, Bollier raises nearly $1M just in the last week

https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1293190807533555712

[SnowLabrador]

Wow, Bollier raises nearly $1M just in the last week

https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1293190807533555712

I wonder how much Marshall raised in the same time frame. I do believe his fundraising will pick up now that the primary's over (since doubts about him winning the primary were one of the primary reasons for his struggles in that department).

That said, Bollier has a chance still.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS and MT are there in case NC and IA stays R, it's now a real possibility that KS, MT, SC, AZ, CO and ME and GA R flip and Harrison is helped with Harris being helped as Veep

[tmthforu94]

Marshall weighs in on the Harris pick:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1293588053550718980?s=20

Bollier has not yet, but she did receive Harris' endorsement last week and responded to it:
https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1291183961893478401?s=20

Bollier has a new ad on the airwaves featuring former GOP rep Tom Moxley endorsing her. Pretty effective in rural areas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztv7ADlqROg

[MT Treasurer]

Everyone talks about Bullock (and they’re not entirely wrong, of course), but I honestly think Bollier may have been Schumer's biggest recruitment success.

[VAR]

Likely R, Marshall wins by 4-5 points.

[Storr]

Marshall weighs in on the Harris pick:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1293588053550718980?s=20

Bollier has not yet, but she did receive Harris' endorsement last week and responded to it:
https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1291183961893478401?s=20

Bollier has a new ad on the airwaves featuring former GOP rep Tom Moxley endorsing her. Pretty effective in rural areas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztv7ADlqROg

The Biden-Harris-Schumer-Pelosi-Bollier ticket is definitely a mouthful.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bollier really does have a shot at still winning this

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Republican internals show Trump trailing in Kansas and all Bollier has to do is make ads with Marshall pictures next to Trump and talk about how he didn't stand up to him. It's not that hard. And @Xing, at this point it looks like it will be a landslide election. Maybe that will change later, but for now, it looks like this is going to a national blowout

Trump is not losing Kansas lmao

[lfromnj]

Marshall weighs in on the Harris pick:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1293588053550718980?s=20

Bollier has not yet, but she did receive Harris' endorsement last week and responded to it:
https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1291183961893478401?s=20

Bollier has a new ad on the airwaves featuring former GOP rep Tom Moxley endorsing her. Pretty effective in rural areas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztv7ADlqROg

Freudian slip about Doug Jones by Harris .

4 States D's need.

[Pericles]

Marshall weighs in on the Harris pick:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1293588053550718980?s=20

Bollier has not yet, but she did receive Harris' endorsement last week and responded to it:
https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1291183961893478401?s=20

Bollier has a new ad on the airwaves featuring former GOP rep Tom Moxley endorsing her. Pretty effective in rural areas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztv7ADlqROg

Freudian slip about Doug Jones by Harris .

4 States D's need.

She'd just say she's talking about getting to 51 seats, not 50. Even though if Democrats get 50 seats she's almost certainly become VP, most ordinary people won't presume that 50 seats is a Democratic majority.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just curious; how do you guys think Bollier would vote if she were elected to the senate? Would she be sorta like Manchin voting for Medicare but trying to doge identity politics, or like Sinema just being moderate and opposing policies seen as extreme? How reliable of a vote would be for the Democratic Party? She seems like a woman with strong morals, but many of her ads have been kinda vague on where she actually stands on some key issues.

[brucejoel99]

Just curious; how do you guys think Bollier would vote if she were elected to the senate? Would she be sorta like Manchin voting for Medicare but trying to doge identity politics, or like Sinema just being moderate and opposing policies seen as extreme? How reliable of a vote would be for the Democratic Party? She seems like a woman with strong morals, but many of her ads have been kinda vague on where she actually stands on some key issues.

Yeah, she (& Bullock too, for that matter) would certainly be more of a Manchin/Sinema/Tester/Jones/McCaskill/Heitkamp than a Bernie/Warren.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Just curious; how do you guys think Bollier would vote if she were elected to the senate? Would she be sorta like Manchin voting for Medicare but trying to doge identity politics, or like Sinema just being moderate and opposing policies seen as extreme? How reliable of a vote would be for the Democratic Party? She seems like a woman with strong morals, but many of her ads have been kinda vague on where she actually stands on some key issues.

Yeah, she (& Bullock too, for that matter) would certainly be more of a Manchin/Sinema/Tester/Jones/McCaskill/Heitkamp than a Bernie/Warren.

There's a lot of room between Manchin and Sanders and Tester is not really comparable. Furthermore, Manchin's felt free to gut welfare before while being a lot more socially liberal than his state, although he certainly leans a lot less strongly towards the 'economically conservative, socially liberal' typecast than most "moderate" Democratic Senators.

Would Bullock really wind up to the right of, say, Chris Coons or DiFi?

[YE]

Just curious; how do you guys think Bollier would vote if she were elected to the senate? Would she be sorta like Manchin voting for Medicare but trying to doge identity politics, or like Sinema just being moderate and opposing policies seen as extreme? How reliable of a vote would be for the Democratic Party? She seems like a woman with strong morals, but many of her ads have been kinda vague on where she actually stands on some key issues.

Yeah, she (& Bullock too, for that matter) would certainly be more of a Manchin/Sinema/Tester/Jones/McCaskill/Heitkamp than a Bernie/Warren.

There's a lot of room between Manchin and Sanders and Tester is not really comparable. Furthermore, Manchin's felt free to gut welfare before while being a lot more socially liberal than his state, although he certainly leans a lot less strongly towards the 'economically conservative, socially liberal' typecast than most "moderate" Democratic Senators.

Would Bullock really wind up to the right of, say, Chris Coons or DiFi?

My hunch is that Bullock would be a little to the left of Tester and outside of energy/guns and maybe a couple other issues, would be a reliable D vote. Boiler on the other hand would more resemble Sinema an is on record to opposing free college though tbf, she is in favor of a public option when Sinema is not.

[Pollster]

Just curious; how do you guys think Bollier would vote if she were elected to the senate? Would she be sorta like Manchin voting for Medicare but trying to doge identity politics, or like Sinema just being moderate and opposing policies seen as extreme? How reliable of a vote would be for the Democratic Party? She seems like a woman with strong morals, but many of her ads have been kinda vague on where she actually stands on some key issues.

She would publicly break with the party on low-profile votes but be a reliable vote for the Democrats on major legislation without even pretending for a few days that she won't be (as Manchin does). Essentially the new Claire McCaskill.

[kcguy]

I've noticed a couple of new ads this week.

One was a Bollier ad.  It runs something like "If anything could have brought politicians together, I would have thought the current crisis could.  Instead, Washington politicians are acting like children.  As a doctor, I'm shocked that even face masks have turned into a partisan issue."

The other was a 3rd-party ad, thanking Sen. Jerry Moran and Dr. Roger Marshall for standing up against sanctuary cities.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The SoS clarified that West has not qualified so presumably have their figures for the final applications prior to the August 3 deadline in order. An independent hasn't qualified so this will be another Republican-Democratic-Libertarian race.

[tmthforu94]

Bollier announces endorsements from 75 (former) GOP leaders/representatives. It was impressive when Paul Davis did this in '18, but after Kelly doing it and now Bollier, with the lists all being very close to one another, it loses some of it's effectiveness.

https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1297926914338893824?s=20