Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[bagelman]

Which Democratic presidential candidate received the most votes in each state.

- SNIP -

Updated post 2020:

Joe Biden 2020

Barack Obama 2012

Barack Obama 2008

Bill Clinton 1996

Bill Clinton 1992

Jimmy Carter 1976

Lyndon Johnson 1964

Franklin Roosevelt 1932

This as an election map with Biden 2020 vs. nope

[bagelman]

https://twitter.com/GabeGuidarini/status/1352001491951886337

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

Gary Johnson – 4,449,756 votes*
Robert La Follette – 4,834,706 votes

Did the same thing with two historical candidates, La Follette '24 and Johnson 2016, since each of them got around the same number of votes. La Follette wins the popular vote but gets crushed in the electoral college thanks to the Solid South (typical)

The closest state was Massachusetts, where La Follette won by 3k votes, 141,225-138,018. The most lopsided popular vote margin was naturally in Wisconsin: La Follette 453,678 – 106,674 Johnson.

*Note - excludes votes from AK, DC, & HI, totaling about 40,000 lost Johnson voters.

It's less egregious when you consider the huge bias toward Johnson if you use EV numbers from 2012/16/20. The average of 1924 and 2016 is 1970, which would still use the 1964/68 map:



and 1924's numbers



Problem with this comparison is that Fighting Bob was focused on one state. One would need to add the number of votes for each candidate together state by state in a spreadsheet then put that through an apportionment calculator to get a truly fair map.

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

Looks almost like the county map I made for Gary Johnson (R) vs. Hillary Clinton 2016 back when.

[bagelman]

Looks almost like the county map I made for Gary Johnson (R) vs. Hillary Clinton 2016 back when.

That's interesting. What was the scenario that you had for it?

I used a spreadsheet to change Johnson and Trump's national percentage and applied that change to all counties in the nation.

[bagelman]

Party registration? The GOP in KY has managed to catch up by now.

[bagelman]

Around the time of the 2012 election I had a dream that this was the map the morning after:

2012 as a realigning election. Obama flips 2 states from McCain, Romney flips 8 states and 2 districts. Without his flips, Obama still would've barely won thanks to holding Florida. Texas was a huge surprise. It along with Arizona and Colorado are viewed as the prime western swing states for the future, and along with Florida pack a huge EV punch. New Hampshire and Wisconsin are also important swing states in the north. Ohio and Iowa seem to be moving to the right, while Romney may just have been a good fit for Connecticut.

[bagelman]

A few months ago I had a dream that I was watching the 2016 election results. Romney won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (making me really nervous), but Hillary won Ohio and Florida, so she won anyway.

Note that having Romney winning in 2012 is my innovation, the idea is that he governs as a very anti-populist Republican and Clinton wins old school margins in southeast Ohio. In Florida she loses the north by less and has decent enough hispanic outreach. In Pennsylvania, Romney wins on the back of Philadelphia's suburbs and low turnout from the city and Pittsburgh, causing Ohio's neighbor to vote for 2 straight losers. Hillary may have taken the state for granted. Romney is adored by the WOW counties and Vice President Ryan and Governor Walker are very popular in Wisconsin. Hillary focused mainly on Ohio and Florida which paid off, but also paid attention to the upper midwest. New Hampshire (R), Colorado, and Nevada were also quite close, and Virginia may still be seen as purple.

[bagelman]

A brief and convergent timeline based on this, as I continue to mine the dream thread:

I had two weird dreams the same night recently.  The first didn’t involve a politician, but another Atlas poster.  RFayette was saying a prayer while slapping me in the face really hard.  It kind of hurt, and I woke up unhappy.

After falling back asleep, I dreamt that my parents were going to host all the living presidents—plus Dick Cheney—at their house.  When I arrived, Bush 43 and Cheney were already there, asleep in front of the TV.  Cheney awakened and went over to see what my mom was cooking.  “Not what I am used to” he grumbled.  Then the former VP glanced at a picture on the wall.  “Is that [Billie] Sutton?,”  he asked.  I told him it was.  “I’m out of here,”  Cheney exclaimed as he stormed out the door.

After that, Trump arrived.  He was, actually, nice.  Then I woke up.

The POD is that President Bush suffers some sort of injury circa 2007. He is still able to preform his duties as President but delegates more responsibility to the Vice President. In the 2008 Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton is supported by a New Jersey upcoming businessman named Daniel Crumpt, but she still loses in roughly the same fashion as OTL. In the GE public sympathy for Bush is countered by dislike of Cheney after Bush chooses to resign in the late summer, and 2008 goes exactly the same for Obama. Cheney is the 44th President, Obama is the 45th and 2012 also goes the same.

In 2015 Daniel Crumpt, formally a Democrat, enters the GOP primary. An outsider candidate, Crumpt wins the nomination and the general election against his formally favored candidate Hillary Clinton. The election is slightly different from OTL:



Daniel Crumpt (R-NJ), as the 46th President, is similar in many ways to Donald Trump (who in this timeline suffers various indictments) but less corrupt. He also learns to be a better adminstrator and person over time. In 2020 he totally changes in personality to lead the country through difficult times, while Joe Biden declines to run for President. Democrats nominate a less effective candidate and lose the popular vote in 2020. Crumpt's second term will expire in 2025.



President Crumpt is more popular than ever, and the dislike towards President Bush is increasingly a thing of the past. President Cheney however remains an outspoken right winger and neoconservative critical of Crumpt, along with his daughter who just like OTL is Wyoming's congresswoman.

Also Billie Sutton won the gubernatorial race in South Dakota, as his opponent was tarred as a radical much further right than the President. He is up for reelection in 2022. The 2018 election in SD was seen as a major defeat for Cheney's wing of the GOP, and Cheney still occasionally makes public criticisms of Governor Sutton.

[bagelman]

2000 swings doubled for 2004


President Gore, unlike Carter, would be vindicated in the eyes of the average American. Even so, the nation was ready for a change in attitude and leadership. Americans particularly wanted a new direction in foreign policy. McCain steered away from Bush '00 religious right rhetoric and won over moderate Yankee Republicans, winning Vermont.

Closest flips were Pennsylvania and Washington.

[bagelman]

1988 swings doubled for 1992



The recession under Bush is quite different, mainly exacerbating the farm crises while the service and industrial economies do a little better. Democrats, with a different candidate, rail against the "American Famine". Bush and the GOP do the best with what they have, portraying Democrats as hysterical. Democrats win however, with a popular vote margin of D+2.76.

The closest state is Nebraska, which is the only state in the region Bush can hold, although their adoption of the Maine rule gives 2 EV to Democrats. Ohio is Bush's second largest hold after Florida, and votes to the right of neighboring Kentucky.

I've tried making red democrats/blue GOP feel more natural in this map by using darker colors.

[bagelman]

2020



Trump is forced out by the end of the year.

2024



Elsa Morriston is from the state of Pennsylvania, in the southeast part of the state. She is popular in Maryland's eastern shore and in Delaware, which she flips. The popular vote is approximately tied here, California continues to skew it massively leftwards against the rest of the nation.

2028



Closest state is NH. Jimenez, who's middle name is Jim, is the governor of the state of Arizona. The affable incumbent President wasn't easy to take down, but the water crises of the west gives many a Texas sized bone to pick with her administration.

[bagelman]

2012 with each state swinging as much as the biggest R swinging county in OTL.

[bagelman]

Don Linton (Republican - New Mexico)/Debra Antoine (R - Pennsylvania) - 457 EVs - 41.87%

Karen Miller (New Democrats - Wisconsin)/Jonathan Eldridge (ND-North Carolina) - 42 EVs - 30.56%

Michael Brower (Democratic - Minnesota)/Louise Dent (D-Maine) - 39 EVs - 27.57%

Tried to update this map, although the new EV calc doesn't have a 20% shade as of yet



I'm not the creator but it seems clear that voting rights in the south is questionable at best, and their preferred candidate won.

[bagelman]

United States Senators 2044
Red - Two Dems
Blue - Two GOP
Green - One of each

United States Senators 2057
Red - Two Dems
Blue - Two GOP
Green - One Dem One GOP
Pink - One Dem One SocDem

2044: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=9g44 (or 40) R+1

2057: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=9g4b D 50 R 49 SD 1

[bagelman]

2012 with each state swinging as much as the biggest R swinging county in OTL.

Same idea for 2008. America is sadly not ready for a black President. Illegal disenfranchisement of black southerners was involved however. PA is deciding state for McCain.

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

Above is 2004 with swings from most Democratic swinging county per state.



Here's 2004 with swings substituted for 2020 swings. The result is a nailbiter decided in favor of Democrats in Colorado.

[bagelman]

1968 as 1972 swings applied to 1964

Mississippi votes for a Strom Thurmond esque third party as swings make it R over 100%.

Popular vote is only very narrowly Democratic, due to very strong and concentrated southern turnout for the GOP.

[bagelman]

2016/20 as 1856/60



1860: Ohio sends the nation to HELL.

[bagelman]

Democrats manage to claw themselves into the status of the second largest party in the nation, as the Farmer-Labor party fails to win any states. Republican John Anderson still defeats the charismatic Californian conservative and his Georgian running mate. The Democratic party is now solidly a conservative party, having finally purged out the more populist economically left wing.

[bagelman]

Democrats manage to claw themselves into the status of the second largest party in the nation, as the Farmer-Labor party fails to win any states. Republican John Anderson still defeats the charismatic Californian conservative and his Georgian running mate. The Democratic party is now solidly a conservative party, having finally purged out the more populist economically left wing.

President Anderson won reelection as the nation was satisfied with how things were going for the most part. The Democrats continued diving into its southern fried right wing but was held to the rural southern states, with Indiana and Texas, the two states almost exactly the same in population, their largest states. Anderson even managed to flip Florida and Virginia, the former receiving an influx of people from states like New York and the latter increasingly influenced by the greater DC metro. The Farmer-Labor party would reappear on the map, running a more serious campaign than the Democrats. They would get their real opportunity in 1988, but time would tell if they were able to take proper advantage or not...

[bagelman]

President Biden (D-NJ) against Jo Jorgensen (R-IL)