Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

[bagelman]

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Interesting electoral vote allocations. What are they supposed to be, though?

Votes for the respective candidates in our world's 2004.

[bagelman]

Republican from Wisconsin defeats a Democrat from New England. Both running mates are Californians. Grey states are simply undecided as of Thursday morning.

[bagelman]

This works as an alternate 2020 where the polls are more accurate and the nation rejects Trump and Trumpism.



This works as an alternate 2016 where Trump or a stand-in similar to him is able to come across as less of a lunatic to moderate voters while still winning on populism.

[bagelman]

A landslide in 2028 showing how trends continue to evolve. The Republican in this scenario is a black man, first to be nominated by the GOP.

[bagelman]

An alternate 2016 or 2020, the latter has the conservative as the incumbent. The GOP is too socially conservative for the country. The winning Democrat is somewhat moderate economically.

[bagelman]

Closest R state and closest overall: VA

Closest D state: OR

This map features:

WI voting to the right of TX (big trend left in TX)

MD voting to the left of MA, VT, and CA

OR voting to the right of CO and NM

GA, NV, and MN all in the same category.

OH and SC in the same category, left of IA/KS/MS

Younkin's VP might be Young Kim for the lol factor although it could be anyone. Kamala's VP is Castro.

NPV: R+8

Based on https://twitter.com/Pallas_ca/status/1456273594527277058

[bagelman]

What a perfect quality but still uncertain prediction for 2020 would've looked like on Atlas.

Biden leads 249-217 with 72 tossup. MI and NE-02, razor thin and left trending respectively, are the only confident flips from 2016.

[bagelman]

https://i.redd.it/clkh48oaknz71.png

A somewhat strange 2028. California trends R in an R PV win, possibly reelecting an incumbent R President. Utah flips due to water issues, which also causes NE to trend hugely leftward and AK flips due to climate destruction. However FL remains unconcerned, the midwest keeps an R lean, and rural VT finally votes like a rural state narrowly.

[bagelman]

I had a dream in late 2019 that the 2020 election was Biden vs. Trump and the networks were calling Texas for Biden. Mind you, this was before Biden was even the nominee.

You can see why I almost thought I was psychic when it looked like Texas was actually in play right before the election.

Here's the D+7 swing to flip Texas and ensure it's called on election night.

[bagelman]

Scenario where all of Trump 2020s highest grossing counties by net vote are in a single state. Shown on the map as WY, which is merged into CO to keep the number of states at 50. However the state would likely be in the southeast.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton wins Florida, PA, CO, and the Presidency:



Despite her narrow victory, the Clinton presidency isn't too bad for the Democratic party. They win key defensive victories in 2018 (including OH-SEN) and in 2020 flip the house and senate back to their side.

[bagelman]

Same idea with Bush 2000, assuming this still allows Bush 2000 to "win". Wyoming is merged into Colorado, replacing the population of El Paso County, and the new state is WY on the map but is probably in East Texas as opposed to West Texas. Clinton needed that state but didn't get it, Biden didn't need that state but gets it.

[bagelman]

for a post I've yet to create

[bagelman]

Using StatesFun I took all counties in the US with a highest statewide point, including both counties if said point is on the border (including of another state, NC loses 3 counties total for example) and combined them all with Alaska. Then I reorganized the states:

*The remains of Vermont are consolidated into New Hampshire
*The remains of Rhode Island are mostly given to Connecticut, but Massachusetts takes the two smaller counties.
*Delaware's two remaining counties are given to Maryland
*Tennessee takes 3 counties from North Carolina
*Georgia takes Oconee County, SC.
*Alabama takes 3 counties from Florida.
*Wisconsin takes 4 counties from Michigan's UP.
*New Mexico takes 2 counties from Texas, one is El Paso.
*Wyoming is split, Colorado takes 6 counties, Utah 1, Idaho 3, and Montana 11.
*Montana also takes one very rural county from Idaho.
*Colorado takes 4 rural counties from Utah.
*California gives up 8 counties with more than half its population to form the state of Mojave. This, along with statehood for Washington DC, gives the US 48 states.

[bagelman]

What have I done here?

[bagelman]

I doubled every county that swung towards Trump, both in population and in vote totals, in 2020. Then I merged WY into MT and split CA into itself and MJ (SoCal) which is the largest state in the union by a narrow margin over TX (probably lost to TX well before 2020). Here's the resulting alternative timeline:



Obama had won 337-201 in 2012. Clinton lost the upper midwestern states by much more, but stronger margins in a larger Philly and winning over Cubans in Florida gave her the win.

Hillary's narrowest margins are actually in ME (D+0.3) and NH (D+0.4). Trump wins those and the EC is deadlocked at 269.



A number of states actually swing towards President Clinton. NH and ME are both much stronger for her this time around, MN flips (R+1.3 to D+3.9), and MI might flip. AZ goes from R+5.3 to R+1.6, and GA from R+8.2 to R+3.2. But Florida is the deciding state, going to D+3.4 to R+0.5. Hillary currently leads by 2393 votes in MI but that doesn't really matter.

[bagelman]

Same idea for counties that trended (not merely swung) D in 2020. They double in population and votes while everything else is unchanged.



Trump wins thanks to MI at R+0.42

Other close Trump states:

PA R+1.3 (D+3.7 in 2012)
AZ R+1.5 (R+8 in 2012)
GA R+2.3 (R+6.3 in 2012)
IA R+5.3 (D+7.7 in 2012)
OH R+6.6 (D+2 in 2012)

Close Clinton states:

NC D+0.1 (flips from OTL but was D+0.2 in 2012)
NH D+0.4 (OTL)
NV D+1.3 (D+5.4 in 2012)
WI D+4.1 (flips from OTL, D+9.3 in 2012)
ME D+4.5



Biden's victory over President Trump is naturally much more impressive. Obama only won 320 EV in 2012.

Close Biden states:

PA D+1.6
NV D+1.9
AZ D+2.9
NC D+3.4
MI D+3.6
GA D+4
WI D+6

Close Trump states:

IA R+2.9
TX R+4.1
OH R+5.1

Florida is R+4 in 2016, R+5 in 2020, and was R+273 votes in 2008. It is often fairly close but has always voted R since 2000.

[bagelman]

*The population of all counties that voted for Hillary Clinton in both 2008 and 2016's D primary increase in population by 50%. The population of all counties that voted for her opponents both times is halved.
*There are 48 states, and one of them is PR. Congress and President Clinton gave statehood to PR in 2017.
*Vermont is part of New Hampshire
*There is a single Dakota
*Wyoming on the map represents the state of Mojave, the largest state in the union by population, south of California and west of Arizona. The actual Wyoming is part of Montana.
*There is a single state of Pacifica. It's larger than Hawaii but smaller than Alaska in land area. 

2004:



Slightly bigger R win, as Dubya wins over many conservative Democrats.

2008:



McCain did not choose Palin, who doesn't hold statewide office. Instead he would try and recruit Condi Rice. Doesn't matter in the end. Clinton's running mate is someone generic like Evan Bayh.

2012:



It is unclear who has won ME, as Clinton only leads by 305 there. The second closest state is MN, where Clinton has won by about 3341 votes. FL and PA, the deciding states, are both over R+1. Donald Trump ran as a more jovial candidate vs OTL 2016, but reveals his true boorish colors as President.

2016:



Former President Clinton pulls a Grover Cleveland. The EC map may be a tad boring, but Clinton improved across the board, excluding certain high income suburban areas in the south. Democrats were hoping for a bigger win and are disappointed in IA and OH, but many analysts believe Trump mainly won those states thanks to incumbency.

Clinton's new VP is Barack Obama, who is likely to run in 2020. Donald Trump is more damaged, as events similar to the 2021 Capitol Riot occur in January 2017 but go over worse than OTL and Republicans in general are forced to condemn it at least in public.

[bagelman]

This is a world where most of Canada is part of the USA.

Democrats win: ON [18], MB [4], CS (former BC) [8]

Republicans win: NS [3], NB (includes PEI) [3], QC [12], SK [3], AB [7], NU [0], NT [0], YT [0]

Democrats 296, Republicans 229, undecided 29

Newfoundland is an independent county strongly tied with the UK.

[bagelman]

The Republican is saner than Trump but knows how to appeal to both moderates and his old cultists. Kamala Harris is the opposite.

Major D trending states include NH, MN, CO, and HI.

Major R trending states include NY, CA, and MD. Democrats came relatively close to only winning 35 EV, less than Carter '80. Upstate New York might has well have been Alabama in this election.



Democrats recapture the White House in 2028.

Major D trending states include ME, OR. WI and PA both vote to the left of MI.

R trending states include RI, NC, and especially FL which was the only state to swing right from 2024.

[bagelman]

..VT for Bloomberg?! I think not.

[bagelman]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1481412641541136386

I merged each county into a state with the most similar population available, leaving all counties with less people than Stanislaus in a rump CA. AZ also got Imperial County because of geographic issues with the rump CA which pushes Biden up to D+0.72 in 2020. Utah is slightly larger than the rump CA as of 2010. Courtesy of https://tonymoo2228.github.io/StatesFun/

[bagelman]

2016 by Proportional Popular (PVS) with all OTL faithless electors.