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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1325 on: December 01, 2021, 09:10:08 PM »

2000:
Gore/Lieberman (D): 296 EV/ 49.0% PV
Bush/Danforth (R): 242 EV/ 47.2% PV

Senate:

D: 51 (+5)
R: 49 (+5)

MT: Jon Tester defeats Conrad Burns

House:
D: 219 (+8)
R: 216 (-8)

2002:

D: 51 (-)
R: 49 (-)

House:
D: 221 (+2)
R: 214 (-2)

2004:

Bush/Cheney (R): 274 EV/ 49.1%
Kerry/Boxer (D): 264 EV/ 49.9%

Senate:

D: 51 (-)
R: 49 (-)

House:
R: 230 (+16)
D: 205 (-16)

2006:

Senate:

D: 57 (+6)
R: 43 (-6)

House:
D: 248 (+43)
R: 187 (-43)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1326 on: December 03, 2021, 04:58:03 PM »

2008:


Obama/Biden (D): 453 EV/ 55.9% PV
McCain/Palin (R): 185 EV/ 42.9% PV

SENATE:

D: 67 (+10)
R: 33 (-10)

House:
D: 281 (+33)
R: 154 (-33)

2010:

Senate:

D: 61 (-6)
R: 39 (+6)

House:
R: 228 (+74)
D: 207 (-74)

2012:

Obama/Biden (D): 375 EV/ 53.9% PV
Romney/Ryan (R): 163 EV/ 44.9% PV

Senate:

D: 62 (+1)
R: 38 (-2)

House:
D: 237 (+30)
R: 198 (-30)

2014:

Senate:

D: 54 (-8)
R: 46 (+8)

House:
R: 239 (+41)
D: 196 (-41)

2016:

Clinton/Heinrich (D): 335 EV/ 50.2% PV
Trump/Pence (R): 203 EV/ 44.9% PV

Senate:

D: 58 (+4)
R: 42 (-4)

House:
D: 235 (+39)
R: 200 (-39)

2018:

Senate:

R: 51 (+10)
D: 49 (-10)

House:
R: 258 (+58)
D: 177 (-58)
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Justin_Krunchski
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« Reply #1327 on: December 04, 2021, 02:11:57 PM »

Trump v Biden but Covid doesn't exist
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1328 on: December 05, 2021, 11:09:06 PM »

As I've done with the 1988, 1992, and 1996 elections, I'm now comparing the OTL 2004 election to the Ferguson Scenario:



As noted previously, Ferguson won 2,326 counties as compared to Pryor's 817. Comparing to the OTL 2004 election, all 588 counties (100.00%) carried by John Kerry that year vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson running ahead of Kerry in virtually all of these counties, as far as I can tell. Ferguson also wins 1,738 counties (68.02%) that were carried by George W. Bush, a sweeping majority of the counties Bush carried. This includes every Bush county in Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. Kerry did not win any counties in Oklahoma or Utah (both of which are carried by Ferguson), meaning all Democratic counties in those states are Bush-Ferguson counties. Kerry does outperform Ferguson in some parts of the rural Deep South (i.e., Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle). All 817 counties carried by Pryor were also won by Bush.

Ferguson obtains a higher percentage than Kerry in every state and in the District of Columbia. The differences are more minute in most of the Deep South, but are much more significant elsewhere. Texas, the home state of Bush and Ferguson, has completely inverse voting patterns (61.09% Bush and 63.32% Ferguson), and has the greatest number of Bush-Ferguson counties (220). Nine of Bush's ten best states (bar Alabama) vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson exceeding Kerry's percentage in those states by an average of 20%.

In Alaska and Utah, the difference is ~30%, with Ferguson obtaining 65.91% in Alaska (versus Kerry's 35.52%) and 54.86% in Utah (versus Kerry's 26.00%). Wyoming is 56.56% Ferguson but only 29.07% Kerry; Idaho 50.92% Ferguson and 30.26% Kerry; Nebraska 52.61% Ferguson and 32.68% Kerry; Oklahoma 55.75% Ferguson and 34.43% Kerry; North Dakota 57.97% Ferguson and 35.50% Kerry; and Kansas 54.09% Ferguson and 36.62% Kerry. Aside from Alaska, there are six other Bush states where Ferguson receives more than 60% of the vote (Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia). Ferguson receives over 60% in every Kerry state, over 70% in Massachusetts (the only state where Kerry broke 60%) and Hawaii, and over 80% in Rhode Island. D.C. has a more minute difference (Ferguson 92.46%, Kerry 89.18%), due to it's already overwhelming Democratic nature.

Virginia is an almost exact reverse (from 53.68% Bush to 53.54% Ferguson), as are Montana (59.07% Bush to 58.95% Ferguson), North Carolina (56.02% Bush to 56.15% Ferguson), Florida (52.10% Bush to 51.15% Ferguson), Tennessee (56.81% Bush and 55.50% Ferguson), and to a somewhat lesser extent, Arkansas (54.31% Bush to 56.06% Ferguson). New Mexico and Nevada, close Bush wins in OTL 2004, are landslide Ferguson wins in TTL 2016. New Mexico, won by Bush by 5,988 votes, goes to Ferguson by 151,521 votes. Nevada, Bush by 21,500 votes, is Ferguson by 193,117 votes. Wisconsin, another close state, won by Kerry by 11,384 votes, is Ferguson by 724,693 votes. Mississippi, the closest state in the Ferguson election, was Bush by 226,887 votes, but is Pryor by only 12,094 votes. Ferguson, despite losing Mississippi, runs nearly 10% ahead of Kerry there.

Overall, Ferguson wins 27 of Bush's 31 states and all 23 Kerry states (+D.C.), and runs ahead of Kerry in the national popular vote by 12.79% (61.05% vs. 48.26%).
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1329 on: December 06, 2021, 12:34:56 AM »

As I've done with the 1988, 1992, and 1996 elections, I'm now comparing the OTL 2004 election to the Ferguson Scenario:



As noted previously, Ferguson won 2,326 counties as compared to Pryor's 817. Comparing to the OTL 2004 election, all 588 counties (100.00%) carried by John Kerry that year vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson running ahead of Kerry in virtually all of these counties, as far as I can tell. Ferguson also wins 1,738 counties (68.02%) that were carried by George W. Bush, a sweeping majority of the counties Bush carried. This includes every Bush county in Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. Kerry did not win any counties in Oklahoma or Utah (both of which are carried by Ferguson), meaning all Democratic counties in those states are Bush-Ferguson counties. Kerry does outperform Ferguson in some parts of the rural Deep South (i.e., Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle). All 817 counties carried by Pryor were also won by Bush.

Ferguson obtains a higher percentage than Kerry in every state and in the District of Columbia. The differences are more minute in most of the Deep South, but are much more significant elsewhere. Texas, the home state of Bush and Ferguson, has completely inverse voting patterns (61.09% Bush and 63.32% Ferguson), and has the greatest number of Bush-Ferguson counties (220). Nine of Bush's ten best states (bar Alabama) vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson exceeding Kerry's percentage in those states by an average of 20%.

In Alaska and Utah, the difference is ~30%, with Ferguson obtaining 65.91% in Alaska (versus Kerry's 35.52%) and 54.86% in Utah (versus Kerry's 26.00%). Wyoming is 56.56% Ferguson but only 29.07% Kerry; Idaho 50.92% Ferguson and 30.26% Kerry; Nebraska 52.61% Ferguson and 32.68% Kerry; Oklahoma 55.75% Ferguson and 34.43% Kerry; North Dakota 57.97% Ferguson and 35.50% Kerry; and Kansas 54.09% Ferguson and 36.62% Kerry. Aside from Alaska, there are six other Bush states where Ferguson receives more than 60% of the vote (Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia). Ferguson receives over 60% in every Kerry state, over 70% in Massachusetts (the only state where Kerry broke 60%) and Hawaii, and over 80% in Rhode Island. D.C. has a more minute difference (Ferguson 92.46%, Kerry 89.18%), due to it's already overwhelming Democratic nature.

Virginia is an almost exact reverse (from 53.68% Bush to 53.54% Ferguson), as are Montana (59.07% Bush to 58.95% Ferguson), North Carolina (56.02% Bush to 56.15% Ferguson), Florida (52.10% Bush to 51.15% Ferguson), Tennessee (56.81% Bush and 55.50% Ferguson), and to a somewhat lesser extent, Arkansas (54.31% Bush to 56.06% Ferguson). New Mexico and Nevada, close Bush wins in OTL 2004, are landslide Ferguson wins in TTL 2016. New Mexico, won by Bush by 5,988 votes, goes to Ferguson by 151,521 votes. Nevada, Bush by 21,500 votes, is Ferguson by 193,117 votes. Wisconsin, another close state, won by Kerry by 11,384 votes, is Ferguson by 724,693 votes. Mississippi, the closest state in the Ferguson election, was Bush by 226,887 votes, but is Pryor by only 12,094 votes. Ferguson, despite losing Mississippi, runs nearly 10% ahead of Kerry there.

Overall, Ferguson wins 27 of Bush's 31 states and all 23 Kerry states (+D.C.), and runs ahead of Kerry in the national popular vote by 12.79% (61.05% vs. 48.26%).

From the looks of things Pryor wins ~50% in VA-10, which is interesting. Although assuming the changes from the fact that Ferguson is presumably a populist I'm surprised he doesn't carry Butler County considering OTL it went 52% Romney and without the Trump shifts I'm surprised it doesn't go with. Then again Pryor is from Alabama and from the county maps I don't really see anything indicating it would be that far off from OTL (it looks like AL is something like 59-39). Also it looks like Ferguson cracked 45% in NE-03? Wow.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1330 on: December 06, 2021, 12:55:09 AM »

As I've done with the 1988, 1992, and 1996 elections, I'm now comparing the OTL 2004 election to the Ferguson Scenario:



As noted previously, Ferguson won 2,326 counties as compared to Pryor's 817. Comparing to the OTL 2004 election, all 588 counties (100.00%) carried by John Kerry that year vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson running ahead of Kerry in virtually all of these counties, as far as I can tell. Ferguson also wins 1,738 counties (68.02%) that were carried by George W. Bush, a sweeping majority of the counties Bush carried. This includes every Bush county in Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. Kerry did not win any counties in Oklahoma or Utah (both of which are carried by Ferguson), meaning all Democratic counties in those states are Bush-Ferguson counties. Kerry does outperform Ferguson in some parts of the rural Deep South (i.e., Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle). All 817 counties carried by Pryor were also won by Bush.

Ferguson obtains a higher percentage than Kerry in every state and in the District of Columbia. The differences are more minute in most of the Deep South, but are much more significant elsewhere. Texas, the home state of Bush and Ferguson, has completely inverse voting patterns (61.09% Bush and 63.32% Ferguson), and has the greatest number of Bush-Ferguson counties (220). Nine of Bush's ten best states (bar Alabama) vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson exceeding Kerry's percentage in those states by an average of 20%.

In Alaska and Utah, the difference is ~30%, with Ferguson obtaining 65.91% in Alaska (versus Kerry's 35.52%) and 54.86% in Utah (versus Kerry's 26.00%). Wyoming is 56.56% Ferguson but only 29.07% Kerry; Idaho 50.92% Ferguson and 30.26% Kerry; Nebraska 52.61% Ferguson and 32.68% Kerry; Oklahoma 55.75% Ferguson and 34.43% Kerry; North Dakota 57.97% Ferguson and 35.50% Kerry; and Kansas 54.09% Ferguson and 36.62% Kerry. Aside from Alaska, there are six other Bush states where Ferguson receives more than 60% of the vote (Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia). Ferguson receives over 60% in every Kerry state, over 70% in Massachusetts (the only state where Kerry broke 60%) and Hawaii, and over 80% in Rhode Island. D.C. has a more minute difference (Ferguson 92.46%, Kerry 89.18%), due to it's already overwhelming Democratic nature.

Virginia is an almost exact reverse (from 53.68% Bush to 53.54% Ferguson), as are Montana (59.07% Bush to 58.95% Ferguson), North Carolina (56.02% Bush to 56.15% Ferguson), Florida (52.10% Bush to 51.15% Ferguson), Tennessee (56.81% Bush and 55.50% Ferguson), and to a somewhat lesser extent, Arkansas (54.31% Bush to 56.06% Ferguson). New Mexico and Nevada, close Bush wins in OTL 2004, are landslide Ferguson wins in TTL 2016. New Mexico, won by Bush by 5,988 votes, goes to Ferguson by 151,521 votes. Nevada, Bush by 21,500 votes, is Ferguson by 193,117 votes. Wisconsin, another close state, won by Kerry by 11,384 votes, is Ferguson by 724,693 votes. Mississippi, the closest state in the Ferguson election, was Bush by 226,887 votes, but is Pryor by only 12,094 votes. Ferguson, despite losing Mississippi, runs nearly 10% ahead of Kerry there.

Overall, Ferguson wins 27 of Bush's 31 states and all 23 Kerry states (+D.C.), and runs ahead of Kerry in the national popular vote by 12.79% (61.05% vs. 48.26%).

From the looks of things Pryor wins ~50% in VA-10, which is interesting. Although assuming the changes from the fact that Ferguson is presumably a populist I'm surprised he doesn't carry Butler County considering OTL it went 52% Romney and without the Trump shifts I'm surprised it doesn't go with. Then again Pryor is from Alabama and from the county maps I don't really see anything indicating it would be that far off from OTL (it looks like AL is something like 59-39). Also it looks like Ferguson cracked 45% in NE-03? Wow.

Pryor does win VA-10, Ferguson does break 45% in NE-03, and Alabama is 62-38% Pryor. Pryor holds up in the Deep South, which closely resembles Obama's two elections, and holds up in Florida, losing the state by only 2.30%. But elsewhere, the changes are more dramatic. As I recall, Pryor carries three congressional districts that Biden won last year (CA-48, VA-07, and VA-10).
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1331 on: December 06, 2021, 01:27:56 AM »

As I've done with the 1988, 1992, and 1996 elections, I'm now comparing the OTL 2004 election to the Ferguson Scenario:



As noted previously, Ferguson won 2,326 counties as compared to Pryor's 817. Comparing to the OTL 2004 election, all 588 counties (100.00%) carried by John Kerry that year vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson running ahead of Kerry in virtually all of these counties, as far as I can tell. Ferguson also wins 1,738 counties (68.02%) that were carried by George W. Bush, a sweeping majority of the counties Bush carried. This includes every Bush county in Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. Kerry did not win any counties in Oklahoma or Utah (both of which are carried by Ferguson), meaning all Democratic counties in those states are Bush-Ferguson counties. Kerry does outperform Ferguson in some parts of the rural Deep South (i.e., Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle). All 817 counties carried by Pryor were also won by Bush.

Ferguson obtains a higher percentage than Kerry in every state and in the District of Columbia. The differences are more minute in most of the Deep South, but are much more significant elsewhere. Texas, the home state of Bush and Ferguson, has completely inverse voting patterns (61.09% Bush and 63.32% Ferguson), and has the greatest number of Bush-Ferguson counties (220). Nine of Bush's ten best states (bar Alabama) vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson exceeding Kerry's percentage in those states by an average of 20%.

In Alaska and Utah, the difference is ~30%, with Ferguson obtaining 65.91% in Alaska (versus Kerry's 35.52%) and 54.86% in Utah (versus Kerry's 26.00%). Wyoming is 56.56% Ferguson but only 29.07% Kerry; Idaho 50.92% Ferguson and 30.26% Kerry; Nebraska 52.61% Ferguson and 32.68% Kerry; Oklahoma 55.75% Ferguson and 34.43% Kerry; North Dakota 57.97% Ferguson and 35.50% Kerry; and Kansas 54.09% Ferguson and 36.62% Kerry. Aside from Alaska, there are six other Bush states where Ferguson receives more than 60% of the vote (Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia). Ferguson receives over 60% in every Kerry state, over 70% in Massachusetts (the only state where Kerry broke 60%) and Hawaii, and over 80% in Rhode Island. D.C. has a more minute difference (Ferguson 92.46%, Kerry 89.18%), due to it's already overwhelming Democratic nature.

Virginia is an almost exact reverse (from 53.68% Bush to 53.54% Ferguson), as are Montana (59.07% Bush to 58.95% Ferguson), North Carolina (56.02% Bush to 56.15% Ferguson), Florida (52.10% Bush to 51.15% Ferguson), Tennessee (56.81% Bush and 55.50% Ferguson), and to a somewhat lesser extent, Arkansas (54.31% Bush to 56.06% Ferguson). New Mexico and Nevada, close Bush wins in OTL 2004, are landslide Ferguson wins in TTL 2016. New Mexico, won by Bush by 5,988 votes, goes to Ferguson by 151,521 votes. Nevada, Bush by 21,500 votes, is Ferguson by 193,117 votes. Wisconsin, another close state, won by Kerry by 11,384 votes, is Ferguson by 724,693 votes. Mississippi, the closest state in the Ferguson election, was Bush by 226,887 votes, but is Pryor by only 12,094 votes. Ferguson, despite losing Mississippi, runs nearly 10% ahead of Kerry there.

Overall, Ferguson wins 27 of Bush's 31 states and all 23 Kerry states (+D.C.), and runs ahead of Kerry in the national popular vote by 12.79% (61.05% vs. 48.26%).

From the looks of things Pryor wins ~50% in VA-10, which is interesting. Although assuming the changes from the fact that Ferguson is presumably a populist I'm surprised he doesn't carry Butler County considering OTL it went 52% Romney and without the Trump shifts I'm surprised it doesn't go with. Then again Pryor is from Alabama and from the county maps I don't really see anything indicating it would be that far off from OTL (it looks like AL is something like 59-39). Also it looks like Ferguson cracked 45% in NE-03? Wow.

Pryor does win VA-10, Ferguson does break 45% in NE-03, and Alabama is 62-38% Pryor. Pryor holds up in the Deep South, which closely resembles Obama's two elections, and holds up in Florida, losing the state by only 2.30%. But elsewhere, the changes are more dramatic. As I recall, Pryor carries three congressional districts that Biden won last year (CA-48, VA-07, and VA-10).

I presume the objective of this project is if the increasing hyper-partisanship between the 80s and 2010s never occured?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1332 on: December 06, 2021, 01:41:15 AM »

As I've done with the 1988, 1992, and 1996 elections, I'm now comparing the OTL 2004 election to the Ferguson Scenario:



As noted previously, Ferguson won 2,326 counties as compared to Pryor's 817. Comparing to the OTL 2004 election, all 588 counties (100.00%) carried by John Kerry that year vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson running ahead of Kerry in virtually all of these counties, as far as I can tell. Ferguson also wins 1,738 counties (68.02%) that were carried by George W. Bush, a sweeping majority of the counties Bush carried. This includes every Bush county in Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. Kerry did not win any counties in Oklahoma or Utah (both of which are carried by Ferguson), meaning all Democratic counties in those states are Bush-Ferguson counties. Kerry does outperform Ferguson in some parts of the rural Deep South (i.e., Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle). All 817 counties carried by Pryor were also won by Bush.

Ferguson obtains a higher percentage than Kerry in every state and in the District of Columbia. The differences are more minute in most of the Deep South, but are much more significant elsewhere. Texas, the home state of Bush and Ferguson, has completely inverse voting patterns (61.09% Bush and 63.32% Ferguson), and has the greatest number of Bush-Ferguson counties (220). Nine of Bush's ten best states (bar Alabama) vote for Ferguson, with Ferguson exceeding Kerry's percentage in those states by an average of 20%.

In Alaska and Utah, the difference is ~30%, with Ferguson obtaining 65.91% in Alaska (versus Kerry's 35.52%) and 54.86% in Utah (versus Kerry's 26.00%). Wyoming is 56.56% Ferguson but only 29.07% Kerry; Idaho 50.92% Ferguson and 30.26% Kerry; Nebraska 52.61% Ferguson and 32.68% Kerry; Oklahoma 55.75% Ferguson and 34.43% Kerry; North Dakota 57.97% Ferguson and 35.50% Kerry; and Kansas 54.09% Ferguson and 36.62% Kerry. Aside from Alaska, there are six other Bush states where Ferguson receives more than 60% of the vote (Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia). Ferguson receives over 60% in every Kerry state, over 70% in Massachusetts (the only state where Kerry broke 60%) and Hawaii, and over 80% in Rhode Island. D.C. has a more minute difference (Ferguson 92.46%, Kerry 89.18%), due to it's already overwhelming Democratic nature.

Virginia is an almost exact reverse (from 53.68% Bush to 53.54% Ferguson), as are Montana (59.07% Bush to 58.95% Ferguson), North Carolina (56.02% Bush to 56.15% Ferguson), Florida (52.10% Bush to 51.15% Ferguson), Tennessee (56.81% Bush and 55.50% Ferguson), and to a somewhat lesser extent, Arkansas (54.31% Bush to 56.06% Ferguson). New Mexico and Nevada, close Bush wins in OTL 2004, are landslide Ferguson wins in TTL 2016. New Mexico, won by Bush by 5,988 votes, goes to Ferguson by 151,521 votes. Nevada, Bush by 21,500 votes, is Ferguson by 193,117 votes. Wisconsin, another close state, won by Kerry by 11,384 votes, is Ferguson by 724,693 votes. Mississippi, the closest state in the Ferguson election, was Bush by 226,887 votes, but is Pryor by only 12,094 votes. Ferguson, despite losing Mississippi, runs nearly 10% ahead of Kerry there.

Overall, Ferguson wins 27 of Bush's 31 states and all 23 Kerry states (+D.C.), and runs ahead of Kerry in the national popular vote by 12.79% (61.05% vs. 48.26%).

From the looks of things Pryor wins ~50% in VA-10, which is interesting. Although assuming the changes from the fact that Ferguson is presumably a populist I'm surprised he doesn't carry Butler County considering OTL it went 52% Romney and without the Trump shifts I'm surprised it doesn't go with. Then again Pryor is from Alabama and from the county maps I don't really see anything indicating it would be that far off from OTL (it looks like AL is something like 59-39). Also it looks like Ferguson cracked 45% in NE-03? Wow.

Pryor does win VA-10, Ferguson does break 45% in NE-03, and Alabama is 62-38% Pryor. Pryor holds up in the Deep South, which closely resembles Obama's two elections, and holds up in Florida, losing the state by only 2.30%. But elsewhere, the changes are more dramatic. As I recall, Pryor carries three congressional districts that Biden won last year (CA-48, VA-07, and VA-10).

I presume the objective of this project is if the increasing hyper-partisanship between the 80s and 2010s never occured?

Yes. I've been working on it for about two years now.
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TwinGeeks99
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« Reply #1333 on: December 06, 2021, 02:28:24 AM »

Trump v Biden but Covid doesn't exist

I agree, if not for a historic pandemic Joe Biden would have just ended up being the next John Kerry.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1334 on: December 06, 2021, 04:42:48 PM »

Trump v Biden but Covid doesn't exist

I agree, if not for a historic pandemic Joe Biden would have just ended up being the next John Kerry.


Except he would win the popular vote.
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bagelman
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« Reply #1335 on: December 09, 2021, 10:27:15 AM »

Using StatesFun I took all counties in the US with a highest statewide point, including both counties if said point is on the border (including of another state, NC loses 3 counties total for example) and combined them all with Alaska. Then I reorganized the states:

*The remains of Vermont are consolidated into New Hampshire
*The remains of Rhode Island are mostly given to Connecticut, but Massachusetts takes the two smaller counties.
*Delaware's two remaining counties are given to Maryland
*Tennessee takes 3 counties from North Carolina
*Georgia takes Oconee County, SC.
*Alabama takes 3 counties from Florida.
*Wisconsin takes 4 counties from Michigan's UP.
*New Mexico takes 2 counties from Texas, one is El Paso.
*Wyoming is split, Colorado takes 6 counties, Utah 1, Idaho 3, and Montana 11.
*Montana also takes one very rural county from Idaho.
*Colorado takes 4 rural counties from Utah.
*California gives up 8 counties with more than half its population to form the state of Mojave. This, along with statehood for Washington DC, gives the US 48 states.






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President of the civil service full of trans activists
Peebs
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« Reply #1336 on: December 12, 2021, 11:24:58 AM »


Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA) / Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT) - 443/59.5%
Fmr. Pres. Donald Trump (R-FL) / Fmr. Chief of Staff Mark Meadows (R-NC) - 95/38.7%


Pres. Jay Inslee (D-WA) / Vice Pres. Becca Balint (D-VT) - 480/62.2%
Sen. Josh Mandel (R-OH) / Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) - 56/35.6%


Gov. Cheri Beasley (R-MA) / Sen. Molly Gray (R-VT) - 272/47.9%
Sec. of State Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Sen. Jeff Jackson (D-DE) - 264/49.6%


Fmr. Vice Pres. Becca Balint (D-VT) / Gov. Danielle Tozer (D-WA) - 329/51.2%
Pres. Cheri Beasley (R-MA) / Vice Pres. Molly Gray (R-VT) - 207/46.0%

Might  around and expand on this sh**tpost.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1337 on: December 12, 2021, 06:02:07 PM »

2020:

Rubio/Cruz (R): 275 EV/ 47.8% PV
Heinrich/Rice (D): 263 EV/ 50.4% PV

Senate:

R: 50 (-1)
D: 50 (+1)

House:
R: 223 (-35)
D: 212 (+35)
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bagelman
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« Reply #1338 on: December 15, 2021, 06:03:13 PM »



What have I done here?
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #1339 on: December 15, 2021, 06:24:28 PM »

2020 if Bronz’s understanding of the electorate was correct:

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Canis
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« Reply #1340 on: December 17, 2021, 04:34:20 PM »


Best preforming Republican nominee since 2000
Bush 2004 291
Trump 2016 161
Bush 2000 69
Romney 2012 17


Best preforming Democratic Nominee since 2000

Obama 2008 278
Clinton 2016 139
Gore 2000 69
Obama 2012 52
Decided to do this with 2020 now
Best preforming Republican Nominee

Will do the democrat version later today or tomorrow
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Canis
canis
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« Reply #1341 on: December 17, 2021, 09:23:08 PM »

Heres the Democratic verison
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Biden his time
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« Reply #1342 on: December 20, 2021, 02:30:26 PM »

States with a violent crime rate above the national average in purple vs. states with a violent crime rate below the national average in green

-2019 MAP-

2020 UPDATE:



Tipping Point State - Georgia

Data
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Biden his time
Abdullah
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« Reply #1343 on: December 20, 2021, 02:50:59 PM »

Hypothetical Trend Map from MAR 2021 - SEP 2021 using Morning Consult Data



Image Link

For reference, between the two dates, Biden's Net Approval Rating nationwide went from +12.22% to -0.29%.

Not reality-based in the slightest (it's literally a tracking poll) but I thought it was interesting

RED = DEMOCRAT
BLUE = REPUBLICAN
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1344 on: December 20, 2021, 02:59:58 PM »

Hypothetical Trend Map from MAR 2021 - SEP 2021 using Morning Consult Data



Image Link

For reference, between the two dates, Biden's Net Approval Rating nationwide went from +12.22% to -0.29%.

Not reality-based in the slightest (it's literally a tracking poll) but I thought it was interesting

RED = DEMOCRAT
BLUE = REPUBLICAN

Both Dakotas - north and south (the former more than the latter) stand out here.
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bagelman
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« Reply #1345 on: December 22, 2021, 05:26:13 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2021, 05:35:59 PM by bagelman »

I doubled every county that swung towards Trump, both in population and in vote totals, in 2020. Then I merged WY into MT and split CA into itself and MJ (SoCal) which is the largest state in the union by a narrow margin over TX (probably lost to TX well before 2020). Here's the resulting alternative timeline:



Obama had won 337-201 in 2012. Clinton lost the upper midwestern states by much more, but stronger margins in a larger Philly and winning over Cubans in Florida gave her the win.

Hillary's narrowest margins are actually in ME (D+0.3) and NH (D+0.4). Trump wins those and the EC is deadlocked at 269.



A number of states actually swing towards President Clinton. NH and ME are both much stronger for her this time around, MN flips (R+1.3 to D+3.9), and MI might flip. AZ goes from R+5.3 to R+1.6, and GA from R+8.2 to R+3.2. But Florida is the deciding state, going to D+3.4 to R+0.5. Hillary currently leads by 2393 votes in MI but that doesn't really matter.
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Brother Jonathan
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« Reply #1346 on: December 22, 2021, 06:36:51 PM »

1992 Federal Election

Liberal Party (Bill Clinton, Little Rock)- 376 Seats
Southern Bloc (George Wallace, South East Alabama)- 83 Seats
Reform Party (Phil Gramm, Ellis—Navarro)- 45 Seats
New Democratic Party (Tom Harkin, Council Bluffs—Cass)- 17 Seats
Progressive Conservative Party (George Bush, Dallas Garland)- 17 Seats

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bagelman
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« Reply #1347 on: December 22, 2021, 11:02:37 PM »

Same idea for counties that trended (not merely swung) D in 2020. They double in population and votes while everything else is unchanged.



Trump wins thanks to MI at R+0.42

Other close Trump states:

PA R+1.3 (D+3.7 in 2012)
AZ R+1.5 (R+8 in 2012)
GA R+2.3 (R+6.3 in 2012)
IA R+5.3 (D+7.7 in 2012)
OH R+6.6 (D+2 in 2012)

Close Clinton states:

NC D+0.1 (flips from OTL but was D+0.2 in 2012)
NH D+0.4 (OTL)
NV D+1.3 (D+5.4 in 2012)
WI D+4.1 (flips from OTL, D+9.3 in 2012)
ME D+4.5



Biden's victory over President Trump is naturally much more impressive. Obama only won 320 EV in 2012.

Close Biden states:

PA D+1.6
NV D+1.9
AZ D+2.9
NC D+3.4
MI D+3.6
GA D+4
WI D+6

Close Trump states:

IA R+2.9
TX R+4.1
OH R+5.1

Florida is R+4 in 2016, R+5 in 2020, and was R+273 votes in 2008. It is often fairly close but has always voted R since 2000.
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bagelman
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« Reply #1348 on: December 24, 2021, 04:50:57 PM »

*The population of all counties that voted for Hillary Clinton in both 2008 and 2016's D primary increase in population by 50%. The population of all counties that voted for her opponents both times is halved.
*There are 48 states, and one of them is PR. Congress and President Clinton gave statehood to PR in 2017.
*Vermont is part of New Hampshire
*There is a single Dakota
*Wyoming on the map represents the state of Mojave, the largest state in the union by population, south of California and west of Arizona. The actual Wyoming is part of Montana.
*There is a single state of Pacifica. It's larger than Hawaii but smaller than Alaska in land area. 

2004:



Slightly bigger R win, as Dubya wins over many conservative Democrats.

2008:



McCain did not choose Palin, who doesn't hold statewide office. Instead he would try and recruit Condi Rice. Doesn't matter in the end. Clinton's running mate is someone generic like Evan Bayh.

2012:



It is unclear who has won ME, as Clinton only leads by 305 there. The second closest state is MN, where Clinton has won by about 3341 votes. FL and PA, the deciding states, are both over R+1. Donald Trump ran as a more jovial candidate vs OTL 2016, but reveals his true boorish colors as President.

2016:



Former President Clinton pulls a Grover Cleveland. The EC map may be a tad boring, but Clinton improved across the board, excluding certain high income suburban areas in the south. Democrats were hoping for a bigger win and are disappointed in IA and OH, but many analysts believe Trump mainly won those states thanks to incumbency.

Clinton's new VP is Barack Obama, who is likely to run in 2020. Donald Trump is more damaged, as events similar to the 2021 Capitol Riot occur in January 2017 but go over worse than OTL and Republicans in general are forced to condemn it at least in public.
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Andrew Yang 2024
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« Reply #1349 on: December 25, 2021, 02:51:04 AM »



Lyndon B. Johnson-Pat Brown 269 electoral votes 48.7 percent
Richard M. Nixon-Henry Cabot Lodge 207 electoral votes 48.9 percent
Harry Byrd-Ross Barnett 61 electoral votes 2.3 percent
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