UK General Discussion: Rishecession

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More YouGov findings:

Truss approval: 15/65
Kwarteng approval: 7/60
Government approval on the economy: 11/76

LOL someone is getting sacked

No chance: Number 10 is playing a much bigger role in economic policy now than they have for a while (certainly more than Boris ever did) and everyone knows this: so she'd have very little credibility in doing this and also it removes a key shield for her.

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Gove speaking out feels notable: standing down at the next election so he has nothing to lose; been in government under every PM from Cameron to Johnson and seems to have decent popularity in the parliamentary party. The group that's building up isn't the normal rebel crowd and if we assume that a lot of that group vote against as well then you're getting very close to a situation where you lose the vote or only win very narrowly: and if you follow up by removing the whip then suddenly you've turned a majority of 71 into a paper minority government; or a very narrow majority. Now I think its fair to assume that they'd be fine in terms of avoiding losing confidence votes in that situation (suspect that a large chunk of that group would want the whip back before the next election and even if they are banking on a change of PM I suspect voting to defeat the government on a confidence vote would be a step too far for any future Tory leader) but it'd make passing any complex legislative programme very difficult because you'd have this group of Independent Conservatives who aren't bound by the whip and who can work with the opposition to block or amend the most toxic bits of their programme.

This to me feels a lot like them trying to copy what Boris did last time: where he stood his ground on Brexit; managed to purge the Parliamentary Tory Party of its biggest critics (mainly the pre-Europe ones) and resulted in a general election victory. Key different here: the Labour Party were incredibly unpopular, Boris was doing all of this to progress Brexit which had been voted for in a referendum so he had a very strong mandate; he was personally popular and the Tories were leading in the polls so they had a carrot to use to go for an early election; and he didn't tank the economy on his first real week on the job. This is why this won't work: everyone knows that the government losing in a confidence vote brings Labour in with a very large majority for at least five years and the Tories have taken a massive credibility hit; no one likes their policies and there's no mandate for them in Parliament. That prevents the government from pressing the nuclear option; allows Tory MPs more free reign to vote against the government (most MPs don't like being in opposition; especially those who really are ambitious and want government jobs) and makes sure that the opposition will pounce on any issue that might force the government to go.

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The fact that both of them resigned might suggest this happened over their heads? Especially with the reports of Ministers doing it. Might also be pre-emptive at this stuff getting out.

MP named by Chris Bryant as being bullied into voting No was Alex Stafford - MP for Rother Valley since 2019. Terese Coffey and Jacob Rees Mogg involved.

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Sunak was also big into his crypto a few years ago (commissioned the Royal Mail to make Official NFTs a few years ago but that has since, shockingly, been canned); I suspect there's a bit of tech bro bouncing around the next big thing going on.

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Its not that unusual for question periods for other departments to be handled in part by junior ministers; and that is what will happen here. He'll address questions in the Lords and you'll see Labour push a lot harder there than they usually will for Lords question periods; but the Junior Ministers will cover the commons side as would happen with any Lords-based ministers.

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The one thing to keep an eye on for election date is Budget timing. The government still has to pass a Finance Bill early next year even if just to confirm the continuation of things like income tax for 2024-25; and that will happen before the next election. If there's a Budget at a 'normal' time (ie mid/late March) then that probably means they've committed to October as an election date; if they go for an earlier Budget then I suspect they've kept their options open for a substantive budget with some changes and enough Parliamentary team to get a Finance Bill through Parliament and to Royal Assent before a May election. I think that would more be indication of them leaving options open (and honestly if they wanted to go early without a Budget they could get an emergency Finance Bill that changes nothing but simply rolls over current tax rates through Parliament in a day as no one would oppose it) but if they've got tax cuts in the pocket they would totally give themselves a moment to do it.

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Believe it went unmentioned here but Nottingham Council announced it was issuing a Section 114 notice (which is basically saying that they are bankrupt); joining a growing list of insolvent local councils. This is something that has the potential to explode: there's reports that a lot of councils are on the brink of going bust themselves and if it spreads into a widespread problem including government of all parties (which is already has) and to 'well ran councils' it basically forces whoever is in government to make some not very popular decisions.

I think it's a complicated thing: from the 70s on the primary source of council funding shifted from local taxes to central government grants (an intentional political decision); and they've also increasingly had statutory requirements foisted on them which basically requires them to provide certain services but also bear the costs from existing funding; which has been squeezed. So basically you've got councils that are restricted in the revenue they can raise; with legal obligations to provide certain services and a bulk of the remainder are things like leisure centres and bin collections that are widely seen as the purview of councils to provide. The solution is not palatable: its either accepting permanently much high local taxes (which I think would boost Council Tax reform efforts); or moving a bunch of the statutory services to Central Government which you'd then have to fund which also puts an upwards pressure on taxes. Or alternatively we accept that local councils should do less things; but like that's been the direction of things for over a decade now and I would argue councils are mostly at the core of what they should be doing in most places.

A perfect example of the very difficult decisions that the next government will have to make: unless we somehow find a bunch of growth or productivity increases the next government is inherently very constrained by the fiscal situation: the National Insurance cut in the Autumn Statement was partially funded by some... ambitious spending predictions across government in the late 2020s. I also suspect its why Labour are being vague about specific commitments - I don't know if they've started getting the civil service briefings that oppositions parties generally get in advance of elections yet but it would not shock me if they are holding back until they get that access to see where things ultimately are before you start seeing spending commitments.

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I assume the legislation this week will be like every other Tory showdown; a fair number of defections with the promise that they will amend the legislation later but the various tribes fail any amendments because they require Labour votes to even get near 240 votes.

Various changes fail and then a small group of wets and a small number of very right wing MPs like Jenrick, Braverman and co vote against. The ‘joy’ of being able to vote for this legislation for Tory MPs will outweigh most of the quibbles about whether it will work- if you actually care about what works you would not have gone near this plan- as Cummings keeps (rightly) saying this policy is a Johnson hangover!

My understanding is that Tuesday is just the second reading vote; this might pass even if people are sceptical about it. The challenge after that would be whatever they do for committee stage and third reading: that's where amendments and things like that would cause issues within the Conservatives (and Labour would back any amendments from the Tory left I imagine). Then after this it goes to the Lords who I cannot see letting this through without amendments and its not subject to the Salisbury Convention so they're not duty bound to let it pass unamended: and if they couldn't get it through the Lords the choice they'd have would be an election using Rwanda as an issue because the 1949 Parliament Act requires a year to have passed before it can be used (plus two parliamentary sessions but there's precedent from the passage of the 1949 Parliament Act that you can massage that slightly by having a short session) and that's impossible at this point. I suspect this is the governments plan: to try and use the Lords blocking this as a populist election tactic: I don't think it would work especially since Labour are the only party to have an actual commitment to House of Lords reform.

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The assumptions are May or October - May has become the default month that confident governments would choose (aligns with the locals so shores them up; it’s the start of summer so people are more likely to be a bit optimistic; plus it gives them a period afterwards to kick off their agenda before the summer) and while that doesn’t apply here there’s a feeling they might try it as a bit of a Hail Mary especially if the migration stuff fails somewhere - I’d say unlikely but possible. More likely is October - gives them a few extra months to see if things turn around; but you aren’t deep enough into winter where campaigning is a pain. Parliament legally has to be dissolved by December and an election in late January but that is basically the last ditch option - but like everyone is depressed in January so I don’t see that happening.

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Redirecting levelling up funding from Northern transport links, to flatter motorists in London?

Future political historians will have a *field day* with the political ramifications of the 2023 Uxbridge by-election.
https://twitter.com/transportgovuk/status/1737401590808543620

The sheer number of deleted tweets from official departmental accounts in this thread really speaks to the acumen of Tory PR advisors.

If they are from official accounts then theoretically it’ll be drafted by the Civil Service - although Ministers will clear things like this and SPADs will inevitably have thoughts so there’ll be a bit of Tory PR interest. It’s also why they are always quite awkward - it’s non-partisan officials trying to convey some often partisan views in as objective a way as possible - while they represent the government of the day that doesn’t mean they work for the Conservative Party and it’ll be the same people doing social media when Labour are in charge.

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We're into the 'but what do Lascelle's Principles say about a potential election' stage of this Tory leadership saga.

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All the Conservatives need to do is increase their vote share from 2019 to have an increased majority: simple

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On an entirely unrelated note; loyalist figure Jamie Bryson (who is not the most sensible of people; but who was basically live tweeting a DUP leadership meeting over going back into government so clearly gets told things by people there) reporting an emergency DUP leadership meeting this afternoon following Jeffrey Donaldson withdrawing from all of the events he was planned to do.

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I think she's ideologically in some sort of transition (her response to the P&O sackings etc), but it's still a defection from the right of the party. By someone who isn't moving further right.

I've had a bit of a pocket theory that the pre-2022 divide in the Tories between 'left' and 'right' was interesting; as Boris was on the 'right' despite pushing for some economic policies that were clearly NOT right wing. Obviously Truss was on the right in all ways but I wonder if that created a bit of a divide on that side of the party between the people that were big fans of the Truss project and those that are 'culturally Conservative' but who have more left wing economic sympathies and perhaps recent events have entrenched those.

It also is probably political opportunism but I think there's an interesting wider question there.

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Laughter aside, a major issue is simply that Sunak has all of the very late Richard Crossman's faults without any of his good points. Crossman used to correct the grammar of his civil servants, and by all accounts Sunak treats his MPs in a similar manner: he believes himself to be much more intelligent than anyone else in the room and has a compulsion to show it in a way that often involves humiliating other people.

Liz Truss used to treat officials the same way

Allegedly