MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I know it's fun to clown on him for losing twice, but I really don't think there's anything to suggest that he's a uniquely bad candidate. In fact, I still think he's probably better than most of the MI GOP. Remember that he outran Trump last year and outperformed the gubernatorial and SOS nominees in 2018 (and he presumably would have outran the AG candidate as well had Nessel not incurred the "controversies" that she did).

That being said, Whitmer's unpopularity seems to be significantly overstated on this forum. Her detractors may be particularly vocal, but polling has consistently shown that a majority of the state approves of her COVID response.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I honestly doubt she would win the nomination, which is quite impressive given how high her profile is. She’s not good on camera, and the MAGA crowd wouldn’t like that she ditched the administration post-1/6. I’m a bit surprised she even wants to attempt a political campaign given how uncomfortable she seemed with the media spotlight during her tenure as Secretary.

That being said, her being nominated would, as others have said, be a tremendous gift to Whitmer. Craig is a far superior choice for the MI GOP.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I honestly doubt she would win the nomination, which is quite impressive given how high her profile is. She’s not good on camera, and the MAGA crowd wouldn’t like that she ditched the administration post-1/6. I’m a bit surprised she even wants to attempt a political campaign given how uncomfortable she seemed with the media spotlight during her tenure as Secretary.

That being said, her being nominated would, as others have said, be a tremendous gift to Whitmer. Craig is a far superior choice for the MI GOP.

You don't think she could?  Money seems to matter a lot in primaries and she has a lot of it.  

No, she absolutely could, and her massive war chest will undoubtedly be a huge asset. I just don’t think she’ll be able to make a compelling case for herself. Her biggest advantage was her proximity to Trump, but by resigning before the end of his term, she kinda threw that out the window. I also think that the GOP is really hungry for candidates with backgrounds in law enforcement at the moment, and Craig is their best bet to beat Whitmer on paper.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I honestly doubt she would win the nomination, which is quite impressive given how high her profile is. She’s not good on camera, and the MAGA crowd wouldn’t like that she ditched the administration post-1/6. I’m a bit surprised she even wants to attempt a political campaign given how uncomfortable she seemed with the media spotlight during her tenure as Secretary.

That being said, her being nominated would, as others have said, be a tremendous gift to Whitmer. Craig is a far superior choice for the MI GOP.

You don't think she could?  Money seems to matter a lot in primaries and she has a lot of it.  

No, she absolutely could, and her massive war chest will undoubtedly be a huge asset. I just don’t think she’ll be able to make a compelling case for herself. Her biggest advantage was her proximity to Trump, but by resigning before the end of his term, she kinda threw that out the window. I also think that the GOP is really hungry for candidates with backgrounds in law enforcement at the moment, and Craig is their best bet to beat Whitmer on paper.

Yeah, she also seems to represent what the party used to be (upper middle class suburban business friendly people) and not what the party is now (MERUCA FIRST blue lives matter (except for Capitol police of course)).

Yep. Spearheading the school choice movement (and her family’s role in the MI GOP over the years) will win her some goodwill with the old guard who genuinely care about enacting traditional conservative policy, but I just don’t see the base getting excited about her at all.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Who says Whitmer is "unpopular"?

Pretty much everyone. Google "Whitmer approval rating."

Even the notoriously pro-incumbent Morning Consult poll has her at +4 today, which makes her the third-weakest incumbent facing re-election after Evers and Grisham. Even if you disregard all polling, it's clear that she stirs massive animosity in Republicans without really enthusing Democrats or independents. Intensity is different than net unpopularity but might matter even more in our current high-turnout political environment.

The bottom line here is that a +4 approval rating in a swing state does not make her 'unpopular' as much as you wish it does. Not to mention, other public polling from this year has shown her with higher than that as well.

Not sure where you're getting that she doesn't enthuse Democrats either, it feels like a lot of people here wishcasting their own feelings about Whitmer onto the situation rather than what is actually happening in reality.

Yeah, I have to categorically disagree that she doesn't enthuse Democrats. In my experience, she gets a degree of admiration from Michigan Democrats (and suburban Democrats in particular) that well exceeds that of any other elected official at the moment, including Biden. Yes, her being singled out by the GOP as Enemy #1 for many months has energized her Republican opposition, but it has also galvanized Democrats in her defense. That isn't to say that she doesn't have a tough road ahead, because she does, but that's pretty much entirely just by virtue of the unfavorable national environment.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Who will be the nominee? Dixon, Soldano, or Rinke?

Dixon is the clear favorite

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Who will be the nominee? Dixon, Soldano, or Rinke?

Dixon is the clear favorite

Why? Is Trump likely to endorse her?

I guess I shouldn't have said "clear" favorite, because that's too generous. She just is winning the endorsement game so far and is getting the most attention, but we'll have to wait for post-Craig polling to really know anything for sure.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I wouldn't be to excited yall. Dixon if elected(which is still likelier than not if she makes it to the general) would be worse than Craig

Nah, Whitmer is definitely favored at this point.  Craig was the clear Republican frontrunner for a reason and it would’ve been either Tilt D or Tilt R even with him.  Republicans likely blew this one.

She literally broke her own pandemic restrictions multiple times. You can't tell me that's going to go over well with the voters. I wouldn't be surprised if Mastriano lost and Dixon/Craig/Soldano won and the margin is not close between the two

If Whitmer loses, it will be because of inflation and general dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party, not because of that. Those stories blew over pretty quickly when they broke, and they might as well be ancient history at this point. Those who always supported the restrictions never cared, and those who opposed the restrictions were already firmly anti-Whitmer. Republicans don't even really use this talking point anymore as far as I've seen.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Craig has officially been removed from the ballot, by the way. Whitmer is popping a bottle of champagne in Lansing, I'm sure.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Michigan Democrats absolutely crushed it last night. Statewide races, congressional races, state legislative races, the propositions… could not have asked for anything more. Super excited to see what it’s like to live under a Democratic trifecta that can actually make some progress!