GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Heebie Jeebie]

Scott Holcomb, you're up!

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With McBath out, my bet is Scott Holcomb finally makes a Senate run and ends up as the nominee.

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The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that, of the names still being tossed around, DeKalb County District Attorney Sherry Boston would be the best choice for Democrats to settle on.  Her résumé is a little thin, but she's a black woman from the metro Atlanta area, and her background in law enforcement will fit the moment perfectly-whomever the Democrats nominate for president, anti-corruption is probably going to be the theme of the national party's 2020 campaign.  Unless McBath changes her mind, Boston might be the best Georgia Democrats can do.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Former US Attorney Ed Tarver is reportedly considering. He's black, a former State Senator and a Army veteran. Also he's from outside the Atlanta metro area like Tomilson.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1176178177896570880

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Tarver

Any idea how old Tarver is?

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

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The heavyweight Dem candidates will jump in once it is known who gets the appointment. If it's Price, Kingston, Handel, etc. I expect a clown car.

Whom would you consider the heavyweights?  Thurmond?  Jordan?  Nunn?  Carter?  I've for some time thought Sherry Boston would be the best pick, but then I stumbled onto her support for Stacey Evans in the 2018 primary and I wonder if that might compromise her support in the state's Democratic establishment.

[Heebie Jeebie]

The heavyweight Dem candidates will jump in once it is known who gets the appointment. If it's Price, Kingston, Handel, etc. I expect a clown car.

Whom would you consider the heavyweights?  Thurmond?  Jordan?  Nunn?  Carter?  I've for some time thought Sherry Boston would be the best pick, but then I stumbled onto her support for Stacey Evans in the 2018 primary and I wonder if that might compromise her support in the state's Democratic establishment.

The Democratic establishment didn’t want Abrams. LOL. They were obviously dead wrong and ended up with egg on their faces but Boston wasn’t alone in underestimating Abrams.

Abrams was the minority leader in the Georgia House for eight years.  She was the establishment during that time, and she is certainly the Georgia Democratic establishment now.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Abrams was the minority leader in the Georgia House for eight years.  She was the establishment during that time, and she is certainly the Georgia Democratic establishment now.

Yeah, sure, now after she proved her stock as a statewide candidate. But the majority of legislators that endorsed in that primary endorsed Evans. All former statewide Dems that endorsed, endorsed Evans. Atlanta Mayors Franklin, Kasim Reed, and Keisha Lance Bottoms supported Evans. She was disliked by the majority of the black caucus and her heir apparent Carolyn Hughley was denied the Minority Leader position when Abrams resigned.

She was the leader because no one else wanted to do it. Georgia Democrats were demoralized and defeated by the time she took that role.

Few electeds under the Gold Dome believed a black woman would perform well statewide in Georgia and defaulted to Evans.

I said all that to say- Boston's support for Evans will not hurt her. LOL.

Huh.

Okay, you convinced me.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Trump is urging Kemp to appoint Doug Collins

Would Collins be a strong candidate?

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Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

From what I’ve gathered, Tomlinson has been a pretty underwhelming candidate so far.

True, but she's basically just done a hard reset on her campaign. Hopefully, her new staff will serve her better than the old.

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https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1220315331320799232

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I know the primary isn't for another 8.5 months but goddamn I wouldn't be surprised if she doesn't manage to crack ten percent.  I have no idea what Kemp was thinking appointing her. Money can't buy charm or relating to a base whose quite demographically dissimilar to you.  I highly doubt the rednecks are chomping at the bit to vote for a rich white finance lady from Buckhead who lives in the most expensive house in the entire metro area with an MBA from a private catholic school with no political experience.

Maybe Kemp is just an idiot who's in over his head?

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Lieberman needs to go away ASAP

His pigheadedness is so self-defeating.  He is torpedoing any possibility for a political future in Georgia. 

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L M A O

https://twitter.com/LiebermanForGa/status/1309537739671560192?

I don't get it.  Is this performance art of some sort?

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At this point (knock on wood) I think it's kind of a moot point. The DSCC clearly woke up and started calling in favors and twisting elbows, and that should be enough to get Warnock into the top 2. The only way I see Lieberman substantially harming things is if conditions are really good in November and Warnock could have cleared 50% absent him and Tarver, but I feel like that's somewhat unlikely at this stage.

Side note, it's remarkable how hated Joe Lieberman is. Normally #resistance libs annoyingly stan for centrists who won't just toe the line, but I genuinely think Lieberman might be hated even more by the center than by the progressive wing.

Back when Ned Lamont won the primary against him, all the centrists in the national party chose to stay out of it and not support a perfectly acceptable moderate Democratic nominee because they assumed Lieberman, if he won, would show some gratitude.  But nope.  He returned to the Senate and was even more a douche than he'd ever been.

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Serious question, is Loeffler throwing this on purpose? Does she honestly think she's going to beat Warnock in January?

What does she think the political environment of 2 months of Lame Duck Trump is going to be like?

Democrats usually have lower turnout for runoffs, no?

In Georgia, it seems that that impact is actually not as pronounced. Dems came pretty close in runoffs in 2018 despite deflated turnout.

And I think that's a trend we'll see carry over to other states.  With the Democratic base becoming more highly educated and affluent (thanks, suburban women!), I wouldn't be surprised if the presidential-year/mid-term boom-and-bust cycle Democrats have suffered from is more muted than it was in the previous generation.  Republicans have picked up a lot of the uneducated white male vote (not dependable voters) in exchange for losing a lot of educated female vote (very dependable voters).  It may not be a sea change, but it has to have some effect.

[Heebie Jeebie]

God I hope Warnock can get up to 50% because I really don't think we can win any runoff scenario

The runoff will largely depend on how stupid Trump acts in November, December, and January.

So what you're saying is Warnock is a lock....

[Heebie Jeebie]

I still am confused why people think Loeffler is stronger than Collins, after the insider trading scandal.

At the end of the day neither one of the is going to come out of this in a great position. They're spending so much money and go so far right that by the end of it, they're weakening themselves for the general. Warnock is cleanly consolidating the democratic base and can save up for the general

If there is one thing that has never changed, it is Republicans propensity through sheer stupidity to just piss away Senate seats.

Given their built-in advantage in the Senate, they can afford to piss away a Senate seat or two every few years.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I still am confused why people think Loeffler is stronger than Collins, after the insider trading scandal.

At the end of the day neither one of the is going to come out of this in a great position. They're spending so much money and go so far right that by the end of it, they're weakening themselves for the general. Warnock is cleanly consolidating the democratic base and can save up for the general

If there is one thing that has never changed, it is Republicans propensity through sheer stupidity to just piss away Senate seats.

Given their built-in advantage in the Senate, they can afford to piss away a Senate seat or two every few years.

They're already pissing away support on a big-picture level by governing in a way that makes them unpopular. They could moderate and so get a neutral national environment and like R+5% in the tipping point Senate seat, but instead they insist on pushing the national environment towards the Democrats so the tipping-point seat is very competitive.

Sure, but you could argue they're making a rational trade-off between electoral success and policy success.  Yes, by moderating they could perhaps increase their margins a bit in the Senate....but you only need 50 votes to slash taxes for the super-rich and allow corporations to poison our water and air.  Republicans don't seem to really care about anything except "tax reform" and "deregulation," so why not self-select for those candidates most fanatically committed to these unpopular positions?