GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Bidenworth2020]

Collins would have been even worse. AT least we get another woman in the senate.

[Bidenworth2020]

Tomlinson/Warnock is exactly what the GA Dems need, and each one is the perfect contrast to their eventual opponents.

I was kind of hoping for a white army vet type against loeffler, since she probably has some serious weakness in rural areas that should not be left unexploited. Maybe Warnock's faith will bring in a few rural ancestral democrats. I at least want to improve off of Abrams' horrendous performance in rural Georgia, though even that may be too optimistic.

[Bidenworth2020]

I at least want to improve off of Abrams' horrendous performance in rural Georgia, though even that may be too optimistic.

Rural GA is losing population and it's African-Americans leaving and moving to Metro Atlanta. Abrams did worse than Hillary in South Georgia but still made huge inroads in closing the gap statewide. It's intra-state migration and it's not hurting us statewide. It is what is.

Fair points, though I would add that black transplants moving from places like Detroit/Chicago/Baltimore to Atlanta is really what is moving the needle towards us, and rural areas sure as hell have not been helping us out in the Trump era. BTW, I would be interested to hear why y you/ the "Atlas Consensus" think Warnock is so strong-- sure, he might to help gin black turnout, but what about Asians/Hispanics who were so crucial to Abrams.

[Bidenworth2020]

Don't know why you guys want Collins so bad. He is a significantly stronger candidate than Loeffler by every metric.

[Bidenworth2020]

Don't know why you guys want Collins so bad. He is a significantly stronger candidate than Loeffler by every metric.

Loeffler is weak, but Collins would do significantly worse than her in the Atlanta suburbs.

Call me crazy, but I think the "X will do better or worse in suburbs" ship has sailed. It is all about turning out your base. Ironically, Kemp did this pretty effectively in the 2018 race, where he almost matched Trump's total statewide and actually exceeded his raw vote totals in a lot of rural counties. I also believe that 2018 evidenced that Trump supporters in rural areas are more than willing to not turn out in these insane numbers for those who do not fully embrace him.

[Bidenworth2020]

Do you guys seriously still think Loeffler is stronger than Collins?

[Bidenworth2020]

Loeffler apparently caught for insider trading.

https://twitter.com/noahshachtman/status/1240803599086731265?s=21

Honestly, this isnt good news in terms of the Senate race. Basically solidifies that Collins ( the stronger candidate) will be republican.

[Bidenworth2020]

Loeffler apparently caught for insider trading.

https://twitter.com/noahshachtman/status/1240803599086731265?s=21

Honestly, this isnt good news in terms of the Senate race. Basically solidifies that Collins ( the stronger candidate) will be republican.

They're both weak General Election candidates. The GOP will slide even further in the suburbs with Collins.

Collins is actually a solid candidate for the general. Think of it this way-- if Trump wins, so does Collins, and I could envision him outrunning Trump a bit. I can not say the same of Loeffler, particularly after this.

[Bidenworth2020]

Loeffler apparently caught for insider trading.

https://twitter.com/noahshachtman/status/1240803599086731265?s=21

Honestly, this isnt good news in terms of the Senate race. Basically solidifies that Collins ( the stronger candidate) will be republican.

They're both weak General Election candidates. The GOP will slide even further in the suburbs with Collins.

Collins is actually a solid candidate for the general. Think of it this way-- if Trump wins, so does Collins, and I could envision him outrunning Trump a bit. I can not say the same of Loeffler, particularly after this.

The GOP is already max'xed out in the rurals, whereas they still have room for decline in the cities and suburbs.  Collins isn't exactly the type who can recover the GOP share of urban and suburban votes, whereas a non-corrupt Loeffler could help make up the difference.

And before you bring up Brian Kemp, he had his own unique style of campaigning.

A style Collins can't replicate? He ran, and Collins is running, as a Trump sycophant. And I do not see Collins doing worse than Trump in suburbs, probably a smidge better still.

[Bidenworth2020]

Loeffler apparently caught for insider trading.

https://twitter.com/noahshachtman/status/1240803599086731265?s=21

Honestly, this isnt good news in terms of the Senate race. Basically solidifies that Collins ( the stronger candidate) will be republican.

They're both weak General Election candidates. The GOP will slide even further in the suburbs with Collins.

Collins is actually a solid candidate for the general. Think of it this way-- if Trump wins, so does Collins, and I could envision him outrunning Trump a bit. I can not say the same of Loeffler, particularly after this.

The GOP is already max'xed out in the rurals, whereas they still have room for decline in the cities and suburbs.  Collins isn't exactly the type who can recover the GOP share of urban and suburban votes, whereas a non-corrupt Loeffler could help make up the difference.

And before you bring up Brian Kemp, he had his own unique style of campaigning.

#hottake: Kelly Loeffler would almost definitely lose to Warnock if she went to the runoff after this

Why is this a hot take? I'd say she is more likely to be criminally prosecuted than win a full term after this lol

[Bidenworth2020]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/georgia-senator-loeffler-did-quick-dump-of-travel-company-stock

lmfao

Honestly kind of appreciate that she isn't even subtle about it.

[Bidenworth2020]

If she drops out the Democrats need to force everyone out and endorse Warnock.

No, they need to force Warnock to drop out and endorse Lieberman (i.e. the strongest - or rather, least weak - Democrat running).  Of course, they should be spending on the regular Georgia Senate race since unlike Warnock or Lieberman, Osoff actually has a chance of winning even if it's a long shot and the money would be much better spent on Maine, North Carolina, Montana, and (if Kobach is the Republican nominee) Kansas.

The candidate who has $1 million more cash on hand, endorsed by the largest vote getting Democrat in the state’s history, and to be frank- the candidate who is Black in a state where 2/3 of the votes Democrats will get in November and a run off will be Black needs to drop out because of some polls six months out when NO ONE has been campaigning? Nah.

Agreed. Also....in what world is Ossoff better than Warnock?

The real world

Did Warnock cut you off on the highway or something?

No, I just want the strongest Democrat.  I’m glad the story about Warnock running over his wife’s foot turned out not to be true, but I have been decidedly unimpressed by him as a candidate all the same.  Maybe someone can explain what I’m missing here?

Plus, the fact is that we have a far better shot of beating Perdue with Osoff than we do of beating Collins with Warnock or Lieberman (both of whom are weak C-list candidates, whereas Osoff is a B/B- candidate who has outraised everyone else running in either Senate race).

Really odd that that you insist Warnock is a worse candidate when both polls I have seen had Warnock doing better than Lieberman.